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wingerwanger
19 Nov 23 16:20
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Date Joined: 30 Aug 07
| Topic/replies: 194 | Blogger: wingerwanger's blog
https://www.starsportsbet.co.uk/simon-nott-betting-blog-cheltenham-sunday-2/

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Replies: 38
By:
the dealer
When: 19 Nov 23 16:44
Cheers for posting
By:
ronnie rails
When: 19 Nov 23 16:57
Simon as always a good read I can see why  plenty pitches are available  just had an email from bf send more funds.
Ronnie.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 19 Nov 23 20:23
The Neville Porter firm can't understand why they aren't taking any money. Baffling.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 19 Nov 23 20:24
While Kalooki Racing wonder why they can indeed take money, yet not make a profit.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 19 Nov 23 21:49
Offering 1/4 a 4/9 poke !!!  No wonder he has a Gamble Aware notice on his joint. WAC.
By:
punchestown
When: 19 Nov 23 21:55
Probably had enough bets taken already on the fav so just did what he did.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 19 Nov 23 22:19
The thing is, even Kalooki Racing are betting to 109%. They're not exactly giving it away.

But Neville Porter is betting to 120%.

"But I'm offering each way, bonnie lad," he'd say. Well. yes. But 1/5 the odds two places. The place book comes to 215%!
By:
seaside
When: 20 Nov 23 10:59
Interesting read

Good posts Screaming.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 08:10
So 637 views and not one sharp mind spotted the fact the place book was 107 not 215% ,the porter firm offered a choice to punters who wanted to bet each way when the tote the betting offices and most other bookmakers didn’t

As I say sharp minds
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 26 Nov 23 08:43
Well, 215% is how a 2-place book is calculated here, on the exchange, so that's how I presented it. But if you want to halve that figure and call it 107.5%, fair enough.

Still doesn't take away from the fact that Porter was asking punters to bet into a 120% win book in order to access that "107%" place book. He wasn't betting place-only.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 08:47
A punter who wants win only can go next door he provided a choice ,normally punters are complaining about all the books been the same.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 26 Nov 23 09:03
But he could have gone exactly the same prices as the win-only board next door, and still had a profitable place book at 1/5 the odds 1,2.

4/11, 7/2, 12/1 and 16/1 would have given him a place book of 205% (or 102%, as you would put it). Still overbroke.

Instead he went 1/4, 3/1, 12/1, 13/1 and didn't appear to be taking very much.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 26 Nov 23 09:07
Sorry. I meant NOT overbroke.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 09:21
From what I’ve heard screaming none of the books were taking very much at Cheltenham on Sunday and the other two days were not much better .
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 26 Nov 23 09:27
It was so depressing looking at that scene in Cheltenham Tatts, jimnast. All the racegoers were in the Members enclosure or around the paddock.

Got to leave for soggy, foggy Exeter now. Have a good day.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 09:37
Enjoy Exeter and good luck screaming
By:
Manoleeds
When: 26 Nov 23 11:44
I know how to calculate the win book percentage -but how do you do it for the place book so that you can arrive at 215% and 107.5% and both be right, please?
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 12:06
To be honest manoleeds I don’t know but I knew 215 was wrong so yesterday at haydock I asked a bookmaker to put that show in his computer came up with the place figures.

Like you I know how to calculate a win book but not a place book

Prior to the computer telling bookmakers the place figures they hadn’t got a clue how bad 1st 4 1/4 was in a 16 runner handicap
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 26 Nov 23 13:15
Seems a bit like smoke and mirrors to me, you may well be right Jimnast and our friendly bookmaker is simply offering more choice, but how many racegoers would back e/w in a 4 runner race ?

Also as Manoleeds pointed out how many folk oncourse would know how to work out the % of each ??, my guess be 1% if you are lucky.  why not just keep things simple and bet to win only and get your wage by laying back on here for a workable profit.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 13:27
How many punters on course want to bet 4s on glasgow I would be pretty sure most would sooner bet 12/1 each way in a 4 runner race.
By:
longbridge
When: 26 Nov 23 13:39
jimnast

"Like you I know how to calculate a win book but not a place book"

Take the Win odds and the EW Terms, work out the Place odds, convert to decimal if you haven't done so already, then do just like you'd do with a Win book and sum the reciprocals?  Apologies if I am missing something.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 13:52
I mean the total place book longbridge
By:
Manoleeds
When: 26 Nov 23 13:53
This doesn't quite answer the question but I found it interesting https://www.geegeez.co.uk/money-without-work-5-bookmaker-concessions-each-way-betting/
By:
ribero1
When: 26 Nov 23 14:18
Surely the story here was that it was basically a non event to bet on (like a lot of these premier races) so Neville put a show up for the sake of it and if anyone was daft enough to have a bet good luck to them.
By:
longbridge
When: 26 Nov 23 14:21
so did I jimnast.  maybe I'm missing something?  I cannot see the Neville Porter prices people are referring to, but taking the SS prices from the top of the article as a worked example

(this is where I risk being shot down by half the forum)

(sorry, forum will mess with the formatting):

The Kemble Brewery    5/4
Tellherthename    7/4
Innatendue    5/1
Cannock Park    11/1
Tedley    25/1
Sea Invasion    40/1
Ticking Tom Bomb    50/1
Zeeband    50/1

one-fifth the odds on each (divide the fractional by 5 and add 1) is

The Kemble Brewery 1.25
Tellherthename 1.35
Innatendue 2.0
Cannock Park 3.2
Tedley 6.0
Sea Invasion 9.0
Ticking Tom Bomb 11.0
Zeeband 11.0

the reciprocals of all those are

0.80
0.74
0.50
0.31
0.17
0.11
0.09
0.09

which sums to 2.81 for a 281% place book on a 3 TBP race?
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 14:26
Longbridge

The show is at the start of this thread
By:
longbridge
When: 26 Nov 23 15:18
jimnast - thanks

then, on the same basis

Win book

Jonbon    1/4
Edwardstone    3/1
E du G    12/1
Nube Negra    13/1


Corresponding decimal place odds at 1/5th

Jonbon    1.05
Edwardstone    1.60
E du G    3.40
Nube Negra    3.60

reciprocals as implied probabilities

Jonbon    0.95
Edwardstone    0.63
E du G    0.29
Nube Negra    0.28

sums to 2.15 for a 215% place book
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 15:27
Thank you longbridge something learned for me today

There’s no point in getting older if your not going to get any wiser
By:
ronnie rails
When: 26 Nov 23 15:38
Neville has done well since he used to own Spennymoor  dog over 30 years ago.
Ronnie.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 15:44
Hello ronnie hope your well

Back in 1989 John Stubbs did an article on him in the sporting life in the ringlets section,you would have thought the racing post could have done something like that but I suppose the online bookmakers are there paymasters so they are puppets to them.
By:
ronnie rails
When: 26 Nov 23 15:56
Jimnast.
Not to bad thank you glad to say back at work  this week.the bad news is I think I told you at York  the mother  in law has got allzimers  and its getting  worse Horrible  but we will NOT put her in a home. We were  actually  down the hospital  last night  with her .very  very  hard on us but she is NOT GOING  IN A HOME.
By:
jimnast
When: 26 Nov 23 16:19
Oh dear ronnie sorry to hear that
By:
1st time poster
When: 26 Nov 23 16:32
sad times ronnie
we were in same postion 6 months ago,home was a no,no but when you look after them at home like we did ,and theyve had enough ,dementia doesnt kill them,but they refuse food,water,etc, and eventualy body gives up,my mam lasted about 3 months but was blessed relief for all concerned when she passed about 4 months back
good luck,hope it goes ok for you all
horrible disease for all involved
By:
longbridge
When: 26 Nov 23 16:34
jimnast - you're welcome
By:
longbridge
When: 26 Nov 23 16:35
ronnie - as ever, you are a gentlemen.  sorry to hear your news, all the best with caring for your mother-in-law.
By:
ronnie rails
When: 26 Nov 23 16:35
Jimnast .
Thank you for your  very kind words .re John  Stubbs the days of the huddle only do 20 odd  days a year know  can I ask is the old sp reporter Jon Broadway  still about  an absolute  gentleman  used  to look after me when I stayed  over at Ayr.
By:
ronnie rails
When: 26 Nov 23 16:43
Longridge.
Thank you for  your  very  kind words we put the mother  in law  in rest bight  over the last 2 years  for 7 days HORRIBLE.as I said very hard but she is not going  in a home.
By:
ronnie rails
When: 26 Nov 23 17:02
1st TP
Just saw your  post.
Thank you.
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