is anywun still winning in running?

Forum lack of posting no indication for a lack of IRers
70 odd reading forum on a Monday

Can’t all be losin

Thommo is still taking advantage of his position up in the commentary box to clean right up on any photo betting - if that counts - but he only gets involved if it's clear cut - the winning distance needs to be 2 lengths or more.

60 odd have nowt else in their lives..

Headscarf Lil    48    4.00    Lay   
11-Sep-23 17:29
4.00

easy photo that one

its still just about possible (bf vid & rtv) but you have to keep lowering your expectations, which is the hardest to deal with.

tenners a decent race for rico now..

#BRUTAL.

Horse Racing > Perth 11th Sep : 3m Hcap Hrd
Showing 1 - 5 of 5 selections
Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Miss Wachit    238.52    0.81    Lay   
11-Sep-23 17:28
0.81
Solway Primrose    192.80    5.00    Lay   
11-Sep-23 17:28
5.00
Confelicity    518.22    2.92    Lay   
11-Sep-23 17:28
2.92
Pammi
*1.02    1,750.00    Back   
11-Sep-23 17:29
30.72
Headscarf Lil
*82.73    54.08    Lay   
11-Sep-23 17:29
54.08
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    30.72
Lay subtotal:    62.81
Market subtotal:    93.53
Commission @ 2.00%:    1.87
Net Market Total:    91.66

photo arny chance of a decent return..

well this is it, money that you wouldnt have turned your PC on for 12/24 months ago, now feels like a nice win. It all builds up if you can dodge the hotspots (which is easier said than done). I should end up about the same as last year, but the last 1 to 2 months the liquidity has dropped off even further and weekly/monthly totals are just getting tougher.

Have every1 been spend budgeted ....except cricket bettors

Agree with Wicklow, very difficult last few months. Still make some profits but if I was relying on it for a living , well no chance.

What does everyone think if there was no fast pictures and software allowed for in running and just a level playing field.  Would all the in running betting collapse or might it attract new users?

equal fast pictures would help improve things. no software would make the whole thing impossible if you mean manual bet placement.

Why would it be impossible manually? I should of course have said that the PC Charge should not apply either to attract more money as well.

just timings, when you play in-running you want your bet to be what you are seeing now, not X seconds later, that's the whole pic speed issue all over.

Smarkits has a delay on horseracing inrunning. 5 seconds. How can this be allowed

I assume you mean people on course having that advantage over pictures.  To me it would appear that greed has now killed it what with betfair software as well as other people with there's as well and the PC Charge or am I just being naive?

It's what elements of software are you saying should be outlawed? Betfair needs it to run the site, minimum requirement for punter would be one click bet placement (pretty much like Betfair Rapid, was it called, offered years ago?). It would be great if it was this way. A bit more back to peer to peer. That looks a good 2's shot v. i think that's beaten i'll lay 2s, and betfair take 5% and everyone's happyish.
As for on course advantage I guess that would always be there unless betfair outlawed it via ISP addresses etc.

Wicklow 11 Sep 23 18:56 
last 1 to 2 months the liquidity has dropped off even further

nothing wotsever to do with it...technology has caught up..the roebot is being controlled by gps..the prices are ahead of the pictures..the roebot has been fine tuned to allow nothing to be given away..99% of my lays are under 10p..you offer 1000 when they are 80..ewe get 1000...

Pre ffs

much you won lifetime f4rty?

Played for the First time in months last Friday -could not believe how bad place betting in running has gone -absolutely shocking.

plaice been stripped bare

@sparrow

"if there was no fast pictures and software allowed for in running and just a level playing field"

Fast pictures - short of shooting down drones, I don't see how you could do that, but imagine you can.  Then the people on course have the only 'fast pictures' so we're back to syndicates renting boxes so they can see the action before we can.

Software - no Gruss, no Bet Angel, no AGT?  Or just no hand-crafted 'bots using BF's API?  If I discover a Gaze-esque 'grail' ("40+ BSP horses that steam to 1.05 in-running never win") am I meant sit hovering over the BF website watching for that or can I just tell my computer to lay them for me?

rtv tracks drone pics identical to blv..there are no people in track boxes..

Get the Fav to switch off the transponder (nap)

mork?

Depends what you call winning. I count a lay in running to green out as a win if the horse gets beaten but I don't keep enough detailed records to know whether I lose more by laying off winners than I gain by laying off losers. I lay off about 60% of my win bets in running (at lower odds than the bet) by putting up the lay price before the off and using keep. I tend to select horses on the basis that they will outrun their odds and accept that I will give away some potential profit on good priced winners.

ps. this does not work in France as there is negligible in running trade. I used to do it and was mortified to see the spread between back and lay go to around 5 points in the final furlong.

Rico,

You cant deny the matched amount pre race and inrunning has decreased by approx 10-20% in the past couple of months. Theres races going off with just over 100K matched regularly now, maybe it will pick back up again now there will be less races on after the summer madness. I agree the bots are turned up to the hilt - and GPS is there for sure, but the end of the day theres less and less money there in the pool and the reality is you are going to have less winnings races as less opportuinites. I seldom get involved in 3/4/5 runner races now as for those reasons, your chances of winning in those races have plummeted rapidly (especially on the flat).

Cherrykino - the place markets have all but gone inrunning - its a shame as I generally to most of my business there but jumping and cross market bot (win to place) has stripped it dry. Sometimes when I get matched I m waiting for the selection to pick up rally (1-2 secs later) as the place is just a reflection of the win market and the GPS bot which was never the case going back a year or 2. There was plenty of times when their was prices left up in the place market that would be out of kilter with the win market and it really was fastest finger/mind.

You can still make it, im a home player, never used a drone or facetime or anything else. But for how long is it worth the grief and stress is another thing.

good luck all

I'd be intrigued to know how a cross-market win to place 'bot would work.

I suppose there's a trivial one (once your horse goes below (eg) 1.03 in the Win market, sweep anything that is available at any price in the Place), but I can't see that as more than picking up pennies in font of a steamroller.

I had a go at something a few years a bit more sophisticated (using Win prices as true probabilities and using them to drive a Monte Carlo simulation to derive implied true Place prices) which was a bit of fun to play around with, but my programming skills aren't good enough to get the simulation to run anything like fast enough to use in-running.

I couldnt tell you exactly how it works, but I can assure you the inrunning prices in the place market reflect the win market more than ever now.

As the place market is so thin now and massive gaps its hard to see it, but there was times when a price in the place market was out of line with the win, but thats very very rarly the case now. An example would be when theres a colour mix up in the win market, say near the end of a race, and its incorrectly back down to say sub 1.99/2.0/3.0 the place markets will be swept down at more or less the exact same time to what is there (whether its 1.01, 1.2, 1.5). This did not happen before, but its an example of the bot that is running across each of the markets sweeping what prices are out of line against the win market price (back or lay side)

I am nowhere near as sophisticated as yourself longbdrige as you dont come across as a very smart lad (fair play) but I have managed to earn a nice living on here for sometime scouring the markets win/place/extra place/each way - but that cross market bot is really turning the pressure up and accelerating the decline in the markets.

cheers

So has technology been the ruination of the exchange model?  Although I don't suppose those on here who seem to fully embrace the software would agree with that.

Technology is everywhere, if you are the Luddite persuasion on gambling, then why not on everything?

Turn up to a gun fight holding a stick and the outcome is predictable. It won’t be splinters you complain about.

BF no different from any other bookmaker sparrow - people that win persistently (people with an edge) have been it's ruination ("ruination" is a bit dramatic though). Technology is just one way of getting an edge.

The PC allowed them to get in on the act and plunder their share from the persistent winners (effectively employing them - but charging them to be an employee!) - but more recently, not happy with just a 40% cut, they look to be doing for themselves what they used to let other people do for a fee.

"longbdrige as you dont come across as a very smart lad (fair play)"

That's me told then :)

longbride - I'm 100% sure he meant to say "you come across as a very smart lad"

When theres a late withdrawn horse and its not taken out of the market the inrunning markets can go haywire as the cross matcher in the win market is turned off. The chances of a losing hoss hitting a low price increases massively, I have no stats to back that up, but there is alot more done at sub 1.1 when the cross matcher is off than on.

Also in these non cross matcher races, there is virtually no inrunning prices for the Each way market, bar some people have left up the odd trade, and the place markets run totally difference, again there is no cross market cross matcher sweeper. So as far as i am concerned all the markets are linked through the cross matcher and we know who runs that.

Lucky for us that they promised the cross-matcher was for our benefit (best-execution) Wicklow!

Longbridge - that ment to say " you do come across as a smart lad"

Apologuies for the typo, I dont get involved in any of that rubbish on the forums that has filled up 99% of the threads. Sorry for that, its clear your a very clued up lad, your comments are always worth reading.

I get how you can generate EW prices from Win and Place in-running across markets - that's a pretty trivial calculation - getting Place from Win, much less so (though clearly someone cleverer than me has cracked that one, if your observations are true, which I have no reason to doubt).

Thanks Wicklow, that's a kind thing to say.

Wicklow, with regard to late NR staying in the in-play market, is the cross-matcher turned off as a rule?

Yes TM, best execution - some tripe.

Royal Ascot just gone was another example, theres always plenty of liquidity there, and a lot more than usual in the place market, trades and keep bets left up and fastest finger can sweep a few quid on the placed horses, especially middle to bigger prices horses as invariably most are concentrating on the top of the market. I have always nabbed a fair few placed horses even in 2022, no different. There might have been a 10.0 keep bet left up for a 33/1 and you see it running into the places late on. This year just gone I never got one matched, and there was plenty of big prices winning and hitting the places, the prices were gone instantly before you could see them making a run (GPS for sure and some cross market cross matcher for good measure).

right im off to the garden before the racing starts. Apologies again LB.

Yes swifty.

swifty - it is in my experience, and that makes sense - you (and BF) wouldn't want to be matching a set of bets for a net zero or tiny green when one of those bets is going to be voided on the NR and all the rest are going to have retrospective RFs applied - no way of telling what your final position will be after that.

Some confusion on here.

The wherewithal to accommodate tech use is no different to knowledge about how one might have made a profit in non tech years. There will be those who understand the technologies and those that don’t.
The lazy assumptions being made about A). That you can’t profit because all the money is the house money or B). That somehow winning and paying PC is cheating, are both false.

All products have life cycles, this is a matured product. If you struggle it’s perhaps because the low hanging fruit has gone.

Yes swifty for sure. If you stick up a bunch of low prices for the field when a the x matchers gets turned you 'll be amazed how early the horse thats looks like winning will hit a low price, Can be swept down to sub 1.1 and not even win. There is def more low 1.1's beat when the matcher is off than on.

Usual story dusty - you are half right. Turning up to a gun fight with one of them wooden forks from the chip-shop, people deserve all they get - but when the host of the gun fight deploys nuclear weapons at what was supposed to be a gun fight - different story imo.

Please don't go off on one. I still love it, always have, always will. But they will kill the goose that layed the golden egg at some point.

dusty - I think you have hit the nail on the head there.

I missed the early days in the 2000s (joined in 2010) but I get the impression there were a lot of people attracted by the new way of betting who thought they might be able to make money, and were prepared to lose a fair bit before they realised they were not, which provided an income stream for those brighter and better.  Meanwhile, the brighter and better have an incentive and the money to continually refine their methods, and the barrier for entry gets higher and higher as the easier ways of making money are closed off by those who have been refining their strategies for years.

Im not moaning dusty, just making an observation. BF has been great to me over the years and Id never be in the position I am now without it. You can still make it from sitting at home on the vids but yes the long hanging fruit is gone, but theres still some life further up the tree, you must have to be more careful and concentrate even harder.

As the singularity approaches the disruption it causes shortens the life of all products.
The shelf life of a product, or the job description of a person.

Previous generations had jobs for life. My generation you are lucky if you don’t have to re-train 3-4 times throughout your life.

This generation don’t even know what to study as by the time they qualify the job no longer exists.

So if you had over 2 decades continually winning on here you take your seat at the capt.table for being exceptional.

Re the suspicion that there is a bot hoovering up the in-running place market by correlating the odds to those in the in-running win market - I don't doubt that it's happening, and that it makes it far harder for a manual player to find value. But ... I'm not convinced that the owner of that bot is actually making money. It's a fact that the price of a horse to be placed is sometimes only loosely related to its price to win. A dodgy jumper for instance, or a horse well known for dogging it in a finish.

I suspect that the owner of that in-running bot gets caught out enough times to take away his profit margin. How much must he have lost when Hillsin never went below 13.0 in-running, yet still finished third?

https://www.racingpost.com/results/101/worcester/2023-07-05/843323

The Management Joined: 27 Dec 00
Replies: 954112 Sep 23 12:21 

The PC allowed them to get in on the act and plunder their share from the persistent winners (effectively employing them - but charging them to be an employee!) - but more recently, not happy with just a 40% cut, they look to be doing for themselves what they used to let other people do for a fee.



This is what the greed has come to and sums it up for me.  I just wonder how well many of these regular winners would fare on a level playing field?

Depends on what their edge is sparrow (imo) - if it's solely a time or technology edge that they deploy, I expect they would be screwed on a "level playing field" *. If it's skill and knowledge, not so much so.

* The reality is there is no such thing as a level playing field in any walk of life (imo) - the better player (stronger, fitter, cleverer, etc) will always have some kind of edge over the weaker, the unfit, and the daft!

Think you are talking in cross purposes.

Software is available to all, the only difference are the things individuals make of those opportunities.

‘Level playing field’ refers to those with the fastest pics, and/or bf.
They are different things.

As far as pic speeds, they are as close to egalitarian as they have ever been, but it’s also true GPS is part of the technological picture and plays its own part.

@screaming

I'm half with you on the hoovering Place from Win thing - if someone is doing it then I am very intrigued to know how they are doing it profitably.

fast pics is a thing of the past..the prices are 100% ahead of the pics we see.

Sep 11, 2023 -- 7:02PM, freddiewilliams wrote:

Have every1 been spend budgeted ....except cricket bettors

Cherrykino • September 11, 2023 9:29 PM BST
Played for the First time in months last Friday -could not believe how bad place betting in running has gone -absolutely shocking.

echo that.

No one really cares about inrun place

Place market in running been useless for years now.

not much doing in the win market there either 8.45

i went from 1pm tues till 4pm today (53 races) before i won more than £20 on a race..never been known.

How far behind real time are fast pics.

At races, when I'm there, the pics shown on
big screen appear to be less than a second
behind real time.

Are drone pics ahead of the big screen, or
has anybody checked?



Golf in running was hit by rumour canadians
had faster pics than uk. But people were ahead
of Canadian pics... Must have had access to
raw feed to broadcasters.

all pics are delayed, but as for the golf I blame the caddies they love a bet.

At cricket sky is about 8 secs behind

But can be, and has been 18 secs behind when
I've been at Durham in members lounge with
tvs, and sky on tv.


Football at St James has bits of the game and
is maybe a second or two behind.

Difficult to get a signal in sjp though.


I sat behind 2 courtsiders at Durham this year
They were playing on the run lines which betfair
put on.

now they can even leave the pin in, all hands free for the smartphone.

i watched 20/20 at Somerset you could almost beat the 6 sec betfair delay.

I've not measured sky tv to live at sjp
as I don't have access to a TV from my seat
only the largescreen/tv

If pics are 8 secs behind you have 2secs...

If you are backing or laying you need bet ready
then hit submit, it'll get through.

These guys were winning, but I don't think there
was much to win.

As for caddies that's a maybe, but golf
is a multi point event, so no certainty
a birdie by your man is not being matched elsewhere.

Of course if he knocked one out of bounds you could
lay him before handing him a second ball.

Other bookies were still pricing events and
watching bookies prices you could know what
was coming on sky.

20/20 match, early second innings 6 , prices went from 15 to 9 crazy moves but caused by poor liquidity.

Spanish footy on sky used to be 30 secs behind live.

Betfair had betting on it.

An old mw radio could pick up Spanish broadcasts, on a good day.





Used to attend live golf from time to time,
followed sandy lyle and he went eagle, eagle
I ran half a mile to on course bookies and they still
had him at 16/1 lol...

They were betting on run lines at t20.

Usually loading up last 2 balls of over
a 6 was godsend, or 4 off last ball of over
as run lines seemed to be allowing 1.5 runs per ball.

I'd imagine Lyle's caddie Dave Musgrove liked a bet, he was mates with Pete Coleman, you weren't putting them on for him?!

dronertv blv are around 0.6 behind live..but the gps/bot is way ahead of the pics.

drone/rtv blv are around 0.6 behind live..but the gps/bot is way ahead of the pics.

do you have that much faith in the gps bot apart from track position?

So is drone ahead of big screen?

I know big screen is useless at times
But still looked handy when I've been.

The GPS bot appears to have faith in itself.

Others cannot get access. From what I read.

If its beating experienced players it must be good.

Whenever i've been racing this year amazed how close to live the big screen is. Be interesting if a drone pilot zoomed in on that, to compare that to blurry drone pics from various angles.

Big screen must be less than a second behind live,
or appears to be because in tight finish and
looking at screen they are finished.

Usually tell when they rise to jump hurdle, and
again it looked well under a second.

Can't think that it's far off 0.6 secs either way
so unlikely it's a big screen player.

I'd be checking drone v big screen all the same

big screen is around 1 sec behind live