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been going through the race the last few days and the french appear to hold a strong hand , ace impact done everything right and unbeaten looks like a colt out of the top drawer and should be hard to beat . this will cut up and hukum is not one i would want to be playing ante post though is getting better and now a king george winner . the ballydoyle entries must be respected but what will line up form that yard is open to debate .
one at a big price who seems to be under the radar is place du carrousels a lightly raced filly who has won at the course and is progressing nicely and we may have not seen the best of her yet . trained by a master this has looked very much the plan all season . by lope de vega the step up in trip to 12f should suit and 4 wins from 7 runs there should be more to come . has a bit to find on ratings but very lightly raced and a group 1 winner at the arc meeting last year and suited by soft ground she could be worth a small ante post pop each way .
selection place du carrousel 66/1 lads /corals 50/1 generally . good luck opinions encouraged.
each way pop .
selection place du carrousel 66/1 lads/corals .50/1 generally
one at a big price who seems to be under the radar is place du carrousels a lightly raced filly who has won at the course and is progressing nicely and we may have not seen the best of her yet . trained by a master this has looked very much the plan all season . by lope de vega the step up in trip to 12f should suit and 4 wins from 7 runs there should be more to come . has a bit to find on ratings but very lightly raced and a group 1 winner at the arc meeting last year and suited by soft ground she could be worth a small ante post pop each way .
selection place du carrousel 66/1 lads /corals 50/1 generally . good luck opinions encouraged.
each way pop .
selection place du carrousel 66/1 lads/corals .50/1 generally
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I expect a big field, they've extended the entry to 24 runners now after last years debacle..
Place du Carrousel is a good filly against her own sex, but this year I think is exceptional for colts.. I give 2 for this race.. Ace Impact has been on the go since last winter winning around Cagnes.. so I favour Feed The Flame.. his Grand Prix de Paris win was in an exceptional time, 2.26.71, good enough for most arcs on similar going.. his last 3f sectionals were 2 sub 11 secs and last furlong under 12.. That's quite a finishing kick and he ran the distance a little further than the others.. Feed The Flame to win... My other pick, I refer to Dubai Sheema Classic earlier.. 1. Equinox 2. Westover 3. Zagrey 4. Mostahdaf .. is there better form this year? Zagrey runs in the gr. 1 Grosser Preis von Baden on Sunday.. he has 6 opponents, best might be Mr Hollywood.. he should win that, I think he has to, to figure in the Arc.. I'm on at 66/1 e.w. and that's the best I can hope for.. a place.. He's won on very heavy ground, and I think he might be better suited to Longchamp than Westover or Hukum.. |
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good luck smokey , i spent most of my time going through place du carousels form and happy with the selection ,but i also like to have a few on my side and will try to find another at a decent price .
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I couldn't have a bet until we know the going. Through Seven Seas, who got closer to Equinox than anything has recently, is a tempting 33/1 with BV for the Arc and is owned by the shrewd Carrot Farm who don't mind traveling (they won the Cox Plate with Lys Gracieux and the Caulfield Cup with Mer de Glace), but the question is will she handle soft ground? Ace Impact is a worthy fav imo, but with the Arc trials to come next month, I will keep my powder dry for the time being.
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Why would Zagrey be better suited to Longchamp than Westover and Hukum?
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Early thoughts for the race take me to Hukum, will love the soft going and still seems to be improving. The unbeaten fav has yet to try the distance but could be anything I suppose but is noticeable that his other entries are both of 10 furlongs, the Irish and then the Ascot Champion stakes
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Backed her last time…smooth win but keep an eye on the 2nd that day ie Bolthole…he’s got a big win in him somewhere.
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If it comes up soft or heavy would fancy Savethelastdance to take some pegging back, 20/1 at the moment.
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Backed her last time…smooth win but keep an eye on the 2nd that day ie Bolthole…he’s got a big win in him somewhere.
Are you on the right thread ELG? |
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Place Du Carrousel beat Bolthole last time.
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Well he got there but an unnecessarily hard race I thought.. too much to do from way back, in a sprint finish..
Presumably off to the Arc now, being French, I'll be surprised if they don't.. good place prospects.. |
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thought that was a good performance from zagrey smokey ,he is game , tough and that race today is a good trial , 40/1 with b365 looks very fair trainer and jockey are sweet on the horse and hopefully he lines up on the day and i have had some of that each way good luck to both of us .
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b365 have just cut zagrey to 20/1
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That race was the same one Westerner used as his final prep for his 2nd in the Arc…man he beat them all off that day and I was counting my money then Fallon came flying home on Hurricane Run.
And Damedream used it as well for her final prep before winning it. So it’s qualifies as a recognised trial for me. |
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Torquator Tasso won the Grand Prix Baden in 2021 and went on to win the Arc in the following month.
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tortasso tasso iirc won that race a few years back and went on to win the arc the following month .its a good trial and for some reason many seem to underestimate the strength of the form of that or german group races.the 3yos may be too good but the arc is a supreme test and any weaknesses are often exposed and we dont know for sure if the 3yos are better than the older horses.
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I think, whatever beats Zagrey, will know they've been in a race.. We should be hopeful of a place.
It feels like a colts race this year and I don't rate any of the fillies.. |
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personally i dont think there may be much if anything between the 3yos and older horses , but as smokey says that equinox form line is looking better and better .
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Westover finished infront of Zagrey in that Equinox race; Mostahdaf was 4th after trying to take the race to Equinox. I think this year's renewal would probably involve the 2 French 3 yr old colts unless the ground is exceptionally soft; Hukum cannot be discounted on soft going, I think.
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I had to laugh that Baden-Baden watered the German Derby winner out of that race. That´s German racing for you. I guess the owners of Mr. Hollywood might also have a crack at the Arc. He´s entered and it was one of the better performances by a 3 year old year against older horses this year, if you buy into Zagrey´s form lines.
I wonder about Simca Mille, whose form reads 1/2/1/1. He used the same Grosser Preis von Berlin that has been won recently by Alpinista and Torquator Tasso as an Arc prep. Although only Danedream won it the same year as the Arc. Might not have beaten much, but the win was very impressive visually. |
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For those interested in Place du Carrousel, she remains in the Prix Foy on Sunday, main opposition I think from Iresine, but only 5 runners.. she was taken out of the Prix Vermeille.
The Prix Niel is fascinating with Feed The Flame up against German Derby winner Fantastic Moon.. |
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Smoky Hill
I'm a big fan of Feed The Flame and already backed him at AP for the Arc, don't rule out the filly Blue Rose Cen either, she's around 24 on here. I'm going to Longchamp on Sunday, a superb meeting (been often) and no crowds. |
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Lucky you! too hot for me but enjoy your day.
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I think she just got home there. If mine I think I'd be running Place du Carrousel in the Opera.
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Well I don't think Blue Rose Cen will be showing up, and Warm Heart may go elsewhere. Great win for Fantastic Moon but he won't run if there's any rain about.. not too disappointed with Feed The Flame.. Soumillon kept looking down for some reason, but maybe the heat and going not in his favour today. Dropped out too far back, he takes time to get going.
German form today well up to scratch. |
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Horse loses and analyst is going on about Roger Bannister ffs
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quite happy with that tbf ,these small field races are tactical and she was always holding a strong stayer who is a 2 time group 1 winner ,a bigger field and stronger run race in the arc should suit .
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I keep topping a bit up on Savethelastdance, in the hope of deep ground. Big fan of Hukum but he has a bit more turn of foot than the filly so it will all depend on the state of the ground on the day.
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watching reruns of place du carousels wins she seems to only win narrowly, hds necks half lengths etc, nothing flashy no pulling away by distance cruising on the bridal, more workmanlike than showy but that may not be a bad thing imo.she pulls out more when challenged and just seems to do enough to get the job done which is a quality i like as there could be a lot more in the tank than she has shown so far.
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Looking back at the Prix Niel, I'm a little concerned about Feed The Flame in that, he seems to take too long to get going in his races, and I fear he might be left behind a bit at crucial points. Presumably Soumillon will ride.
Which brings me to Zagrey, which Soumillon also rides. He apparently won the Grosser Preis von Baden on 3 legs as he finished lame, having knocked himself during the race. Nothing serious, and he still remains on course for the Arc, however, it's also a little concerning it has to be said. Thunderstorms are forecast for Paris over the next week, but not much after that. No indication of prolonged wet weather towards end of the month, and warm conditions. May be a year when the going is more on the good side. |
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good luck smokey yeah he has taken a bit of time to get going but that was only a trial ,obviously youd like em to win but could be he needed the race , trainer said as much and the winner is a german derby winner and as said before they seem to underestimate the german form ,price is mare appealing now so i wouldnt be too worried good luck . place du carousel 25s best now !
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Regarding the Niel, that was aperfect example of how NOT to use a pacemaker.
He went a crawl early, knowing the horse he was peacemaking for, was going to be held up. It was an impossible task for Feed The Flame to win from there, but still had a nice prep for The Arc. A few winners of the Arc have been beaten in the Niel, so wouldn't worry too much. |
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Foyleswar, thanks. In case you haven't read, Place du Carrousel will be aimed at the Arc and Fabre was pleased with her run, proving she stayed 12f. She also has targets later in the States and Hong Kong. He says the Arc will be tough for her but she should run well.
I'd like to see Fantastic Moon supplemented, but it's weather dependent. |
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yes just seen that on attheraces site smokey ,still a long way to go and plenty can happen but happy shes going for the arc all being well.
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I agree with Brandyontherocks with respect to the pacemaker and stated as much on my lay thread yesterday. He needs a fast pace and in the home straight i doubted FTF was going to reel in the leader.
Although a disappointing result for favourite backers (including me) he ran well in the circumstances and looking at the Longchamp tracking report for the race was quicker than the winner in each of the last 4 x 200 sectionals. My 9/1 AP bet isn't looking as good today considering Korals/Lads are offering 12/1, but if its GS/soft on the day (and Longchamp often is for the Arc meeting) i still think he can win. Peintre Celebre and Bago finished 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Prix Neil before going on to win the Arc the following month, so stats are not against him. |
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My two are Ace Impact (8/1-->) and Feed The Flame (10/1-->14/1. I think he'll be shorter on ARC Day given the likelihood of softer ground given it's France and Longchamp. Keep the faith!
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Fantastic Moon won't be running in the Arc. Goes to the Breeder's Cup and later Japan.
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auguste rodin going straight to breeders cup according to aob.
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Isn’t Equinox supposed to be in the BC Turf as well? I guess they still deciding but that’s shaping up to be a decent race this year.
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