the arc 2023

Early thoughts for the race take me to Hukum, will love the soft going and still seems to be improving. The unbeaten fav has yet to try the distance but could be anything I suppose but is noticeable that his other entries are both of 10 furlongs, the Irish and then the Ascot Champion stakes

Backed her last time…smooth win but keep an eye on the 2nd that day ie Bolthole…he’s got a big win in him somewhere.

If it comes up soft or heavy would fancy Savethelastdance to take some pegging back, 20/1 at the moment.

Backed her last time…smooth win but keep an eye on the 2nd that day ie Bolthole…he’s got a big win in him somewhere.

Are you on the right thread ELG?

Place Du Carrousel beat Bolthole last time.

Well he got there but an unnecessarily hard race I thought.. too much to do from way back, in a sprint finish..

Presumably off to the Arc now, being French, I'll be surprised if they don't..  good place prospects..

thought that was a good performance from zagrey smokey ,he is game , tough and that race today is a good trial , 40/1 with b365 looks very fair  trainer and jockey are sweet on the horse and hopefully he lines up on the day  and i have had some of that  each way good luck to both of us .

b365 have just cut zagrey  to 20/1

That race was the same one Westerner used as his final prep for his 2nd in the Arc…man he beat them all off that day and I was counting my money then Fallon came flying home on Hurricane Run.

And Damedream used it as well for her final prep before winning it.

So it’s qualifies as a recognised trial for me.

Torquator Tasso won the Grand Prix Baden in 2021 and went on to win the Arc in the following month.

tortasso tasso  iirc won that race a few years back and went on to win the arc  the following month .its a good trial and for some reason many seem to underestimate the strength of the form of  that  or german group races.the 3yos may be too good but the arc is a supreme test and any weaknesses are often exposed and we dont know  for sure if the 3yos are better than the older horses.

I think, whatever beats Zagrey, will know they've been in a race.. We should be hopeful of a place.
It feels like a colts race this year and I don't rate any of the fillies..

personally i dont think there may be much  if anything between the 3yos and older horses , but as smokey says that equinox form  line is looking better and better .

Westover finished infront of Zagrey in that Equinox race; Mostahdaf was 4th after trying to take the race to Equinox. I think this year's renewal would probably involve the 2 French 3 yr old colts unless the ground is exceptionally soft; Hukum cannot be discounted on soft going, I think.

I had to laugh that Baden-Baden watered the German Derby winner out of that race. That´s German racing for you. I guess the owners of Mr. Hollywood might also have a crack at the Arc. He´s entered and it was one of the better performances by a 3 year old year against older horses this year, if you buy into Zagrey´s form lines.


I wonder about Simca Mille, whose form reads 1/2/1/1. He used the same Grosser Preis von Berlin that has been won recently by Alpinista and Torquator Tasso as an Arc prep. Although only Danedream won it the same year as the Arc. Might not have beaten much, but the win was very impressive visually.

For those interested in Place du Carrousel, she remains in the Prix Foy on Sunday, main opposition I think from Iresine, but only 5 runners.. she was taken out of the Prix Vermeille.

The Prix Niel is fascinating with Feed The Flame up against German Derby winner Fantastic Moon..

Smoky Hill

I'm a big fan of Feed The Flame and already backed him at AP for the Arc, don't rule out the filly Blue Rose Cen either, she's around 24 on here.

I'm going to Longchamp on Sunday, a superb meeting (been often) and no crowds.

Lucky you! too hot for me but enjoy your day.

I think she just got home there.  If mine I think I'd be running Place du Carrousel in the Opera.

Well I don't think Blue Rose Cen will be showing up, and Warm Heart may go elsewhere.  Great win for Fantastic Moon but he won't run if there's any rain about..  not too disappointed with Feed The Flame.. Soumillon kept looking down for some reason, but maybe the heat and going not in his favour today. Dropped out too far back, he takes time to get going.

German form today well up to scratch.

Horse loses and analyst is going on about Roger Bannister ffs

quite happy with that tbf ,these small field races are tactical and she was always holding a strong stayer who is a 2 time group 1 winner ,a bigger field and stronger run race in the arc should suit .

I keep topping a bit up on Savethelastdance, in the hope of deep ground. Big fan of Hukum but he has a bit more turn of foot than the filly so it will all depend on the state of the ground on the day.

watching reruns of place du carousels wins she seems to only win narrowly, hds necks half lengths etc, nothing flashy no pulling away by distance cruising on the bridal, more workmanlike than showy but that may not be a bad thing imo.she pulls out more when challenged and just seems to do enough to get the job done which is a quality i like as there could be a lot more in the tank than she has shown so far.

Looking back at the Prix Niel, I'm a little concerned about Feed The Flame in that, he seems to take too long to get going in his races, and I fear he might be left behind a bit at crucial points.  Presumably Soumillon will ride.

Which brings me to Zagrey, which Soumillon also rides.  He apparently won the Grosser Preis von Baden on 3 legs as he finished lame, having knocked himself during the race.  Nothing serious, and he still remains on course for the Arc, however, it's also a little concerning it has to be said.

Thunderstorms are forecast for Paris over the next week, but not much after that.  No indication of prolonged wet weather towards end of the month, and warm conditions.  May be a year when the going is more on the good side.

good luck smokey yeah he has taken a bit of time to get going but that was only a trial ,obviously youd like em to win but could be he needed the race , trainer said as much and the winner is a  german derby winner and as said before they seem to underestimate the german form ,price is mare appealing now so i wouldnt be too worried good luck . place du carousel 25s best now !

Regarding the Niel, that was aperfect example of how NOT to use a pacemaker.

He went a crawl early, knowing the horse he was peacemaking for, was going to be held up.

It was an impossible task for Feed The Flame to win from there, but still had a nice prep for The Arc.

A few winners of the Arc have been beaten in the Niel, so wouldn't worry too much.

Foyleswar,  thanks.  In case you haven't read, Place du Carrousel will be aimed at the Arc and Fabre was pleased with her run, proving she stayed 12f. She also has targets later in the States and Hong Kong.  He says the Arc will be tough for her but she should run well.

I'd like to see Fantastic Moon supplemented, but it's weather dependent.

yes just seen that on attheraces site smokey ,still a long way to go and plenty can happen but happy shes going for the arc all being well.

I agree with Brandyontherocks with respect to the pacemaker and stated as much on my lay thread yesterday. He needs a fast pace and in the home straight i doubted FTF was going to reel in the leader.

Although a disappointing result for favourite backers (including me) he ran well in the circumstances and looking at the Longchamp tracking report for the race was quicker than the winner in each of the last 4 x 200 sectionals. My 9/1 AP bet isn't looking as good today considering Korals/Lads are offering 12/1, but if its GS/soft on the day (and Longchamp often is for the Arc meeting) i still think he can win.

Peintre Celebre and Bago finished 2nd and 3rd respectively in the Prix Neil before going on to win the Arc the following month, so stats are not against him.

My two are Ace Impact (8/1-->) and Feed The Flame (10/1-->14/1. I think he'll be shorter on ARC Day given the likelihood of softer ground given it's France and Longchamp. Keep the faith!

Fantastic Moon won't be running in the Arc. Goes to the Breeder's Cup and later Japan.

auguste rodin going  straight to breeders cup according to aob.

Isn’t Equinox supposed to be in the BC Turf as well? I guess they still deciding but that’s shaping up to be a decent race this year.

Japanese entry Through Seven Seas arrived in Paris today, en route to Chantilly to be prepared for the race.  Her last start she was a neck second to Equinox in a gr. 1. receiving 5lbs. Her best run to date.


1 minute video of her arrival on youtube..  Looks a fine big filly. Perhaps not without a chance if the going doesn't get too soft.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxiPB-RkDS4

It would not surprise me if we do not see Auguste Rodin again.

They would not want another defeat on his CV.

Auguste Rodin does not like flying according to his master post King George. Also, W]what is there to be gained running him in America? I think it was merely bookies' talk.

Should’ve called him Dennis Bergkamp.

This will be my next race of interest.

Interesting weather for Paris up to the race.   One day of heavy rain this Thursday, but from Saturday onwards, right up to 1st Oct, hot, dry and sunny every day.  Even with their watering system, I can't see it being heavy ground this year.  Good going, by our standards, I should think.

Might put a different complexion onto the race.  The Japanese runner might be worth an e.w.

could they be tempted to run equinox?

No, he's not being trained for this, but I wonder if Auguste Rodin and/or Fantastic Moon might show up.

Auguste Rodin will never run in The ARC. There's just too much to lose. The competition, field size and pilot quality are significantly higher than The Derby and Irish Champion Stakes; Continuous might, but will he have the pace to over 12f?

I do not think Coolmore will supplement at £120k either.

savethelast  has had her last dance this season ,

£5 free bet trying my usual autumn treble

377/1

Archangelo - BC Classic
Vauban - Melbourne Cup
Bay Bridge - Arc

Decided a long while ago Archangelo would win the Classic. He’s smashed the rest 3 years not once but twice and the older horses are just awful.

He beat them fair and square in the Belmont but people were doubting him so he came out in the Travers and brutalised all of them. He’s the champ for me.

Vauban…don’t really need to explain that one.

So Bay Bridge…I just wanted him in one of my bets. He’s always been a classy horse, soft ground is fine for me and it just might be that 12f has been what he’s always wanted.

He might end up being my pick on the day if he shows up…maybe even with Frankie on board…who knows.

I got another free bet now in play but it’s Continuous / Leger, Archangelo, Vauban and France in the rugby thing going on now. So that’s a fun one.

And then I got a £10 free that I decided to be completely silly with…

Vauban 6/1 Melbourne
Arsenal 5/1 Premier League
Kansas City Chiefs 6/1 Super Bowl
City of Troy 2/1 Guineas

Lol

I think ACE IMPACT will win the arc.

ahh well, my outsider Zagrey is a non-runner.. he hasn't fully recovered from his win in Germany, so might go to Hong Kong instead.

This is what I wrote at the end of last month and now that good ground looks probable, the 33/1 has long gone on the Japanese entry.

"I couldn't have a bet until we know the going. Through Seven Seas, who got closer to Equinox than anything has recently, is a tempting 33/1 with BV for the Arc and is owned by the shrewd Carrot Farm who don't mind traveling (they won the Cox Plate with Lys Gracieux and the Caulfield Cup with Mer de Glace), but the question is will she handle soft ground? Ace Impact is a worthy fav imo, but with the Arc trials to come next month,  I will keep my powder dry for the time being."

I've taken the 20/1 EW Through Seven Seas (what a beautiful name btw, sired by Dream Journey) and I've had an EW double Ace Impact with the lightly raced Greek Order for the Cambs (the forecast rain for Nmkt this week will suit him. Fingers crossed that the forecasts are correct. GL all.

Weather wise, as already stated it may not be heavy, but i suspect soft will be in the going description.

17mm of rain last Wednesday and looking at VR's from Auteuil yesterday appeared to be very soft there and it's close to Longchamp. Light rain is forecast late Wednesday, all day Thursday, early Friday morning and most of Sunday. Of course forecasts are often wrong and we will have a better idea later in the week.

Where are you seeing that forecast, Andrew?

Brandyontherocks

I looked at a few sites and to be honest they are not consistent, but are they ever. A couple below :

https://www.bbc.com/weather/2988507

https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/02144e9a9a2fe048b3ecca9df91501293f98ee712846f78a5da25ba6690fd98c

Thank you

This is today's Meteo France forecast for the next 7 days

https://meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-france/paris/75000

Dry and Sunny through Thursday with some light rain Thursday night, very cloudy from then on through Sunday

The ground is very soft at the moment and it's likely to be soft on Sunday (France Galop)

^^If the ground is soft on race day that will be music to the ears of Feed The Flame supporters. Game on!

Sad to read STLD wont be runnning, having had a bit ap.

Hope the filly is ok.

Best to wait until Saturday before considering a dig….

When is the draw? A car park draw is almost doomed for connections. Let's hope the principals get a fair draw for all.

Thanks Foyles , was looking for inspiration .....

Final decs and draw is made on Thursday

Thanks 'brandy...'. Fantastic Moon could be in-play afterall because of the drying ground; connections are contemplating a supplementary.

German connections are now seriously considering supplementing Fantastic Moon, with the drying conditions.  I think this horse is something special if the ground is at least 'good'..

..sorry, posted at the same time as impossible..

so if he is supplemented what happens to ante post bets before the suplymentry date /wednesday?

I would think they will stand.If he wasn't originally a rnr they would've
had to pay a supplementry anyway.

'live' once more hence Betfair will not settle until culmination of the event.

put on the ante post arc thread about a week ago that i had a few quid (not a lot just under a tenner at average 100/1 ) as the ground could suit on fantastic moon, a bit of hope they might supplement him ,thanks penzance ,not sure of their  rules tbh.

A/P is all in run or not entered or not.
Wins you should get paid out.
   GL

thanks penzance and good luck

I posted on the AP forum earlier

Foyleswar

The forfeit (2) and supplementary stages are a day earlier for the Arc (not so other races on the card) so you will know before tomorrow lunchtime if Fantastic Moon is a runner. Final runners on Thursday.

I also have a fun bet on another German horse, Mr Hollywood at crazy odds (average @ 147) although ideally he wants soft/heavy, but has run OK on good. The H2H between our runners is 1-1, MH beating FM by 7.5L (10f on heavy) and the latter turning the form around winning by 2.5L in the German Derby(12f). I've seen FM twice, once in München when he was beaten by Charlie Appleby's Nations Pride, the other occasion at the trial 3 week ago. He ran well to win, but the pace was a farce.

Good luck.

Meteo France have updated their forecast, beautiful weather for the rest of the week, with no rain and those lucky enough to be in Paris for the weekend should enjoy unbroken sunshine.

thanks andrew ,good luck with yours  .   the fantastic moon bet was one of those kinda impulse bets with more hope than thought tbh , the odds  of 100 plus on here were indicting  it wouldnt run but weather reports seemed favourable so chanced the odd change in my balance  at the time  , even said probably done my dough so happy he could get a run .

Driver2

Thanks for the weather update. I will be there in a party of 6 friends, including forum posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet, so we can update weather conditions on Saturday/Sunday.

You lucky bstrd, I'm stuck in Thailand and Paris is too much of a hike these days. Tell me, Ts there still a tent opposite the main entrance where you can have a plate of petits lardons and a glass or 2 of plonk for lunch? It was a great way to start the day and far cheaper than the racecourse fayre.

Imagine the Grey Swallow style damage if the Japanese look at the weather and have a last minute change of heart and supplement Equinox lol

doubt it will happen elg but he was a big price  on here a few days ago and some woulda chucked some loose change  at it ,

Yeah I’m joking with that one.

I think Simca Mille is worth another look.

Won the Neil last season then they served soft ground in the Arc for a tilt at the Japan Cup…travelled really well that day but had no answer once the Japanese horse kicked in the turbos on the firm ground.

He’s come out this season and just gone about his work quietly.

But look at it…he did what he needed to early on, then a nice summer break and a G1 win out in German last time out as his prep for this.

I’ll decide once we get a clearer picture of the going, final field and draw.

Hi Foyles, still not had a punt as my two fancies would not want testing ground so the weather going to be a factor if backing either which is Westover or Through Seven Seas. The obvious probably due to the form with Equinox who would be fav unless testing ground, in his absence it looks wide open but the form lines are there and if there is better as it stands I cannot see it.

Provided there is some drying out and no rain I fancy both my picks to run well and little between them so the 16s TSS ew stands out to give the Japanese their first win, I am more keen on this one than they were on Deep Impact, 7s Westover fair also imo.

Fav might be special but has to prove it at a track he has never encountered and a distance he is unproven at, too short in what looks a substandard field but some with form that could burst the bubble.You must be happy enough with your 66s going to post.

I could say I am attending with a party of user names but I don't tell porkies so I will refrain from such, only consolation is that I would not have travelled solely for a poor renewal even had I been able. Btw I do love the meeting and the City of Paris but would never eat at Macdonalds and claim the same in the same sentence if you get my drift?

Good luck.

east lower ... hope 2 of us gooners  are  thinking alike over the arc ( i was a north banker and away day tripper  many years ago ) ...simca certainly likes the course . never out of first 2 in 4 runs . e.w. punt for sure . a few in there have to prove they like longchamp and stay the trip . weather forecast looks fairly dry at present . good luck .

fantastic moon been supplemented according to attheraces site

will be supplemented ^^^^

That horse I mention before…Bolthole runs in the Prix Dollar but he’s got to take down the improving Ancient Rome, Al Aasy and most of all…Horizon Dore.

He could be one for the without markets because he’ll be a massive price.

The draw for the Arc has been done... Hukum badly drawn, as is Simca Mille..   Continuous, Ace Impact, all good.

Thanks 'Smoky Hill'. Bay Bridge & Ace Impact & Continuous (6 & 7 & 8); Westover & Feed The Flame (1 & 2); Fantastic Moon & Hukum (12 & 14). All respectively.

Interesting…fair enough draw…someone had to get the wide spots but it’s not insurmountable.

Personally think Westover in 1 is more challenging a task than Hukum in 14 and Simca in 15 but whatever.

I’m guessing he goes straight to the lead from 1 which should mean 6, 7 and 8 could be in prime position of they break well and settle well.

I can not imagine they would want to lead on Westover.

Looking at the field I can not see where the pace of the race comes from.

This is the major factor stopping me from getting involved.

I do believe if there is one horse that could emerge as a top rater, then it is Ace Impact.

But with the lack of pace and his need to be held up last,  it dampens enthusiasm a bit.

I am leaning towards a lay of Continuous in the place market.

He is seriously short of what he has achieved so far.

# He is seriously short for what he has achieved so far#

As O'Brien is not running a pacemaker, I suspect Continuous will be making his own running, to take the sting out of Ace Impact.  Moore could try and slip the field at some point, whilst the others dawdle and jostle for position.  He's a strong stayer, could take some pegging back and if the ground is on the fast side, Danedream's course record of 2.24 could be at risk here, but I do expect a time around 2 mins 25.

Paris Turf is calling the ground GOOD for tomorrow. Ace Impact and Through Seven Seas both have decent draws and the ground should suit, happy with my bets.

Trueshan's Prix du Cadran time was the 3rd fastest in the race over 25 years.

Gosden just now…

“We’re here today running on Good ground and tomorrow the Arc will be on Good To Firm”

Year in year out we're left guessing about the ground and this morning both of our trade papers, The Racing Post and the Sporting Life put up the Longchamp ground as being soft. They only had to research the same information that we did, even Paris Turf called it GOOD yesterday! I've always believed that studying form is a total waste of time if you don't know what the ground's like and these lazy ****s that call themselves reporters should get another job.

I'm slightly surprised the Sporting Life has Longchamp going as Soft - they are usually fairly accurate with the French going. However, the Racing is frequently wrong with the ground condition in France. The Racing Post is lazy, and does not represent horseracing punters for a long while now; lazy journalism = inaccurate info, period.

When Vandeek won the Prix Morny the ground, according to the Racing Post, was very soft.
Yet the time indicates it was at least good ground.

Having looked at yesterday's results and the weather forecast, I have taken the view that today's race will be on good to firm ground. My main bet in the Arc is Bay Bridge, whose pedigree (by New Bay out of a Multiplex mare) suggests 12f on good to firm would be ideal. Indeed, on his first run over 12f last time out (admittedly on Kempton's AW surface) he posted his best RPR of the year so far, a respectable 123. The no.6 draw doesn't put me off either. I have backed in the win and top 3 markets.

A more speculative bet is Feed The Flame. All of his form is on good or softer, but being by Kingman, there is a chance he may improve a few pounds for hearing his hooves rattle. Again, I have backed in the win and top 3 markets, to smaller stakes.

Good luck all.

yo undertaker havent heard from you in a while , yes i am considering bay bridge as a possible bet ,already on the fabre horse and fantastic moon at big  prices and although it dilutes it a bit 3 cracks at decent prices will help . bay bridge seems to show his best form this time of year and the champion stakes win puts him in the mix .

I’m sticking with BB too Foyles.

1pt win at 14/1
1pt win without Ace Impact & Hukum at 9/1 (might as well grab some insurance at this price)
2pts 5 places at 13/8

Just feel like they were running him at the wrong trip all this time and he’ll explode over the extra distance today.

Should get the run of the race from stall 6 too.

The big issue is the firm ground because his stand out win to date was on soft at Ascot but he could just be a very classy type that can win on anything.

Hukum for me now at double figure price on here.

Apologies, only went to 9.6 and is shorter today.

Meh…fair enough…can’t argue with that performance.