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23 Aug 23
22:09
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Date Joined:
31 Aug 21
.....The lament on the forum is that too many people are past-posters and never opine pre-race. So at the risk of being exposed as in eejit (not difficult tbh) here is my reasoning. He was giving 3lb. FD got the fractions wrong imho (though I am happy to admit I am wrong when the time gurus examine it). He was staying on at the end. He seems to me a really true stayer. I think he will be better over 14f. I think the winner is ok. I think they ran this as a trial. It is probable I am wrong. But.....so long as it stops raining and we get good/good to firm I think 5/1 is a smashing bet ew. I have a few £ @ 9/1 so it is possible I am subject to sunken cost fallacy but.... hey ho. all the best
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said on here after the race i spotted it staying on again inside the distance. most were probably watching the winner. with a more judicious ride in the leger i would expect it to have a good chance.
also be frankies final classic so gosden will have it spot on for him. |
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My selection would be Savethelastdance if it comes up soft/heavy, conversely regarding this hoss I wouldn't touch it with a bargepole tomorrow in its attempt to overcome 'quick' ground in the Yorkshire Oaks [assuming it runs].
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hulk, forgive me as I have just got back from York so have not caught up with the post race views. Didn't want to duplicate. On course, as they ran, being a reasonably experienced racegoer, and having had, for me, a decent thump on Gregory.... I thought he was going too fast after 2f. But I am happy to be proved wrong. The winner was still in North York they turned into the straight and I really can't help but feel FD just went too fast. But it may have been intended......JG was quite bullish post race I thought. But there is that sunken cost fallacy again!
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just looks a dour stayer Donny. Won the Queens Vase (14f) at Ascot, clearing off into the distance at the finish. Would have got 2 miles easily that day so it's really down to frankie getting the fractions right - don't think it'll be stopping.
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Savethelastdance more likely to get heavy going in Paris, though the Leger distance might suit more. Agree with leif about tomorrow for her.
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she is interesting barstool. She is a really, really strong stayer imho. It may be that she needs soft as Lief says but I am quite certain she is better than we have seen. Too short for me tomorrow on rattling quick ground (thank God...at last). Were this dreadful summer to carry on I would like her for a G1 at some stage. Perhaps, Lief, the Prix Royal Oak is it? At Longchamp in late September> I may have that wrong and couldn't be bothered Googling. Good luck to you both
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Donegal -press up on ya antepost bet on him - Gosden was pretty impressed wiv his run - went off far too fast over the wrong trip
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Good for you Smirnoff. I will. Let it get back home and wait for the weather. Few days b4, no rain, I'm back in big time !. Nearly every big, big wins I've had have been on horses that have eased in the betting after a "poor" performance. See More Business (my former user name) : **** : Sleepytime ( remember her!). I've had a pretty ordinary punting year. Think I may push all the chips in a few days b4 the Leger. Good luck chap
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Ascot Gold Cup legend is ****
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y eates
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looking at a wonderful painting of him as I type. My favourite horse ever.
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Loads of dosh for his stablemate Arrest. His price has tumbled from 14/1 into 5/1 (shortest 7/2). Is he a definite runner? If so he'll take a lot of beating esp if going is on the soft side.
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Bad weather forecast could be the reason impossible
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Indeed 'jimnast'. The going has changed from good to good to soft, soft in places after some rain today. And, looks like more is expected between now and race day. Also, Mr Dettori might swap horses if the ground gets progressively softer.
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It’s a shame as whilst some horses are suited by it the meeting as a whole will be spoilt if it’s like goodwood.
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I am clinging to the hope that Gregory has yet to prove he doesn't go on soft, though Golden Horn's tend to prefer fast ground and Mr G seems to think so too. I fear another great price on a loser. If the forecast is 50% right it will be Good to Soft at best. I curse this miserable "summer"
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Even Trushan is getting into the act. He'd be challenging Coltrane for favouritism in the Doncaster Cup on friday. He's 4/1 into 2/1 and shorter. And, I thought he was going over hurdles.
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Forecast seems to have improved for the week ahead.
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the inevitable has happened and FD has jumped ship. As predicted I now look an eejit but where there is life there's hope. Arrest now likely to be favourite. I had a small dabble on it at 5/1 yesterday but it will only win me a half case of middling fizz as opposed to the full case of vintage claret that Gregory would bring (to mimic the method often used by Clement Freud to "enumerate" his bets). Good luck to all.
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Clement Freud, one gem of advice from his book, if you are at the races with non racing friends and really fancy one have two bets on it.
One the lumpy bet and one a small bet. After going mad cheering the horse home you can show the ticket for the small win and your friends won’t expect you to pay for their afternoon at the bar. |
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Reckon most gamblers would do the exact reverse Lucky
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I agree Hayden who doesn’t want to impress with their gambling that’s half the pleasure
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Lucky
Don't you dare show us a winning betting slip for 10 euros @ 6/4 in Longchamp next month  |
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With Dettori choosing for Arrest over Gregory Shoemark is on the latter. I thought the ride would have gone to Doyle. If the ground is neither good nor soft this race could fall to Continuous and AOB.
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