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The 8.30 winner last night at Brighton was returned at 15/2 by the bookmakers yet the BFSP was 15.5 which seemed completely wrong to me after looking at the graph. The highest amount matched pre race was at 10s and only very small amounts were matched at the larger prices. Can anyone explain how this could happen?
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I always assumed that it was either the last price matched or the average of the back and lay prices at the off. In my experience it is more than the price available close to the off on most of the horses I bet. I assume that these bots match them at the last possible moment?
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I thought it was some sort of average sageform, but the last moment scenario you describe appears more likely.
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Been down this line before sparrow
Very complicated and complex algorithms at work Better men than us have failed to get a grasp  Lot to do with keep bets and take bfsp sitting waiting is best answer Best thing to do is just take bfsp and ask no questions  |
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in some weak market US races I've seen a horse drift from 20-60 with little traded and go off at BSP200+ a second later. Not sure why anyone would lay at SP on such races unless with a large enough stake to force the BSP down to below a previous high for a trade.
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I’ve never understood why anyone would lay betfair sp
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Ancient pages dating from the beginning of BSP are here:
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/FAQs_detailedWorkings.html Basically it starts by matching SP backers and SP layers (what is shown as the "Far" price in the BSP column if you have "Near/Far" ticked in the Settings panel), and then folds in any unmatched 'normal' Exchange bets in the market at that point which can be matched at the same or better price than they asked for. It is that second stage which tends to bring the BSP close to the prevailing market price at the off. |
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It just made little sense to me to see such a discrepancy in so short a time. I don't think it has always been so erratic as it seems to be lately or maybe I haven't noticed it.
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should be much more transparent.
especially as nobody trusts them (they are a bookie). if you want to see why that was 15.5 they should be able to show you, without you needing a masters in Complex Kleinian Groups to understand it |
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BSP was introduced before BF were a bookie and shows no sign of having changed.
What is your concern hulk? And how could it be more transparent than being documented on a publically-available page? Granted it's complex - how would you simplify it? |
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hulk23 - posting his usual belligerent bile.
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I don't know if it was the case in this example as I didn't watch the race, but the fast pix people, or drone people I suppose they are now can beat the suspend person. That impacts the sp as effectively ir money can be matched before ir. Shaquille for example I would think may have had a juicy bfsp. The suspend person want to ensure that they don't go ir before the off so there is probably a short delay in them pressing the button. They are human after all. Would be more prevalent in jump races where players can get a good idea of how the race will initially develop, before the actual off.
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it does happen but not in Shaquille's case BSP 11.75, he was 50 about 5 seconds later and hit 80.
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The only thing I can think of is that the eventual winner slightly missed the break but by no more than half a length.
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it says a hi of only 12.5 in running.
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Hulk
Why would anybody do business with someone they didn’t trust ? |
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jimnast, that's an interesting question! I'm fairly certain I've lost a lot of money to people on here that knew the result before the off, maybe a bit less nowadays.
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swifty - remember the published figure is the highest matched to a payout of GBP 100+ - it may well havebeen matced higher for smaller stakes
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is it as high as a 100, ok.
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I suppose RA has more focus for bf, or Shaquille's antics were after the ir button was pressed. In general, the activities just before and immediately after the off can significantly impact the sp. Which is quite interesting as it must technically break the rules. Pretty difficult to police though.
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I should think I have also swifty but hulk specified bookmakers which many people do business with and I know I certainly wouldn’t have a bet with someone I didn’t trust.
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jimnast, i agree that would not be clever. I was always wary of copping a decent return with one of those shady on-line bookies in the past.
Cider, some of the suspends on foreign racing are ridiculously late, SA for example. |
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I can imagine. It used to be terrible in the UK before bf sent people to the track to operate the markets.
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Indeed swifty when I was doing multiples on big priced horses I always insisted the bets were done in shops either hills coral or Ladbrokes with a betting slip copy not interested in potentially better offers / prices with other outfits offering what in the end will finish them.
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Granted it's complex - how would you simplify it?
as with a lot of things on here. who's checking the BSP ? if the answers nobody, or nobody knows what they're checking or are too afraid to admit that they haven't got a clue how it works and would therefore be unable to check it, then you're opening up a whole window of opportunities for skullduggery. |
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BSP was introduced before BF were a bookie and shows no sign of having changed.
 Hello my old sparring partners... PP took over the reins around Feb2016 and I have stats to indicate that you backers have been royally screwed since then. I decided to check up on a system that had showed promise but didn't suit my partner's lifestyle, (you can't miss a day and as for outages...!). Before PP, my BSP GP was 3865 Points profit after 8800 winners with a return of 0.44. I have the same amount of bets post PP and my BSP GP was 1406 points after 8540 winners with a return of 0.16. Most of my race type graphs look like global warming in reverse, the worst are handicaps! |
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I'm convinced the BFSP is alike to the Tote. Say a horse returns at 4/1. Had somebody put a 15k win near the off there's no way it could return at 4s.
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@hulk
"as with a lot of things on here. who's checking the BSP ? " If you're worried about it: - BF publish the methodology (on the link I shared) - you can see the amounts bet at BSP (and BSP-with-a-price-limit) before the off - you can see the amounts available as normal Exchange bets before the off - you can see the projected Near and Far SPs before the off so if you wanted to you could verify the Near and Far projections and after the off, they show the amounts matched on back and lay sides at BSP and the BSP value the only bit of data you are missing to tie the whole lot together is how much take-BSP-if-unmatched money is included in the above, which if you really wanted to you could work out. |
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PP took over the reins around Feb2016 and I have stats to indicate that you backers have been royally screwed since then.
^^ don't say you weren't warned  |
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Betfair's Starting Price ('SP' or 'Betfair SP') is calculated by balancing all SP bets and Exchange bets when the market is suspended at the 'off' of the relevant event.
https://www.betfair.com/help/Help.SP.Betting/ |
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so, what do you thimk "Paddy" is up to hulk?
I would expect any unaltered strategy to become less profitable with time - that is inevitable as others discover whatever edge one has found. |
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i think he's up to everything if he thinks he can get away with it.
as one would expect of a bookie being left to run a betting exchange. i'm still not convinced those charged with oversight have the requisite skills or knowledge to challenge him on anything of a more technical or system based nature. you'll no doubt tell me they do ... |
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your argument that he's not up to anything is based on the £108 that appeared looking for 5.2 at the start of a 3 mile chase milliseconds after i'd put money up at 5.3
with nothing over £12 looking for anything else. if you believe that wasn't him. £108. one tick under. just after. very thin trading. then fine. nothing to see. but you know it was. so do i. and that means all the other £108's i see all the time are also his, on the balance of probability. |
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picked one account too many to diddle. sh!t happens, you get caught out.
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I remain unconvinced that your £108 stalker is BF.
I did suggest some experiments a while back to see if you were being personally stalked, which would add weight to your argument that it had to be done by someone who knew whose bets he was beating, rather than just an automated strategy that would do the same to anyone. If you suggest the BSP is being fiddled it would interesting to know to what end? |
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Grok has kept records for himself & concluded what most have suspected for some time
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i don't think the 108 is some lunatic thinking i want 5.3 so he'll have a ton on it at 5.2. i'm not that good
 and how would he know it's mine anyway ? all to do with trading longbridge ... |
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They way I see it is that although my BSP average has risen post PP, my 10-11 Bsp winners that I used to have pre-PP are now 9.5-10.5 and with a cut-off at 10, a significant chunk has disappeared and in its place is the 11-12 BSP, which means less winners.
Could it be that Betfair didn't have the expertise or didn't care but now the AI/PP bots are laying 8 to 1 in the shops and taking the 10 BSp's???  |