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06 Jun 23
22:06
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18 Jul 02
Hi all,
I need some help. Just calculated my new standards as follows
Distance Yards Yards/sec Median Average
4F214Y 1094 20.14 54.31 54.36
6F16Y 1336 19.28 69.28 69.69
7F14Y 1554 19.00 81.79 82.26
1M13Y 1773 18.70 94.80 94.84
1M3F23Y 2443 17.99 135.82 137.10
1M4F14Y 2654 17.76 149.44 149.74
1M6F21Y 3101 17.79 174.35 174.83
2M102Y 3622 17.51 206.81 207.92
2M2F98Y 4058 17.17 236.29 236.29
I will use the median time. The only time that looks suspect is at 1m4f, from a yards per second point of view. Looking at the track constitution, 1m3f 1m4f &1m6f all run down the home straight for a far while, so there is no early bend to distort times. Any reason for this discrepancy as the class of race is broadly the same and I have adjusted for this anyway.
I need some help. Just calculated my new standards as follows
Distance Yards Yards/sec Median Average
4F214Y 1094 20.14 54.31 54.36
6F16Y 1336 19.28 69.28 69.69
7F14Y 1554 19.00 81.79 82.26
1M13Y 1773 18.70 94.80 94.84
1M3F23Y 2443 17.99 135.82 137.10
1M4F14Y 2654 17.76 149.44 149.74
1M6F21Y 3101 17.79 174.35 174.83
2M102Y 3622 17.51 206.81 207.92
2M2F98Y 4058 17.17 236.29 236.29
I will use the median time. The only time that looks suspect is at 1m4f, from a yards per second point of view. Looking at the track constitution, 1m3f 1m4f &1m6f all run down the home straight for a far while, so there is no early bend to distort times. Any reason for this discrepancy as the class of race is broadly the same and I have adjusted for this anyway.
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Correction its the 1m6f that looks out. probably due to small sample size
sorry for wasting everyones time here |
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1M3F23Y 2443 17.99 135.82 137.10
you sure that one is correct CW? The Average looks out on the ratio to Median imo |
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Cheers Tony.
Small sample. will take actual median calc of 136.9 6 2m 22.54s 1m 3f 24/01/2023 4YO+ 22.54 142.54 132.96 TOP ODDS EVERY DAY WITH BETUK HANDICAP (6) 3 2m 21.34s 1m 3f 08/09/2022 4YO+ 21.34 141.34 133.71 WILLIAM HILL PLAY RESPONSIBLY RACING LEAGUE R29 (HANDICAP) (FOR HORSES REGISTERED TO RACING LEAGUE) (3) 6 2m 23.50s 1m 3f 18/04/2023 4YO+ 23.50 143.5 133.92 CAZOO HANDICAP (6) 6 2m 23.71s 1m 3f 28/02/2023 4YO+ 23.71 143.71 134.13 TOP ODDS EVERY DAY WITH BETUK HANDICAP (6) 5 2m 24.00s 1m 3f 25/04/2022 4YO+ 24.00 144 134.84 29TH AND 30TH MAY ANTIQUES FAIR HANDICAP (5) 5 2m 24.24s 1m 3f 17/02/2023 4YO+ 24.24 144.24 135.08 TOP ODDS EVERY DAY WITH BETUK HANDICAP (5) 6 2m 25.11s 1m 3f 12/02/2023 4YO+ 25.11 145.11 135.53 HUGE DAILY BOOSTS ONLY AT BETUK CLASSIFIED STAKES (6) 6 2m 25.40s 1m 3f 20/01/2023 4YO+ 25.40 145.4 135.82 HUGE DAILY BOOSTS ONLY AT BETUK HANDICAP (DIV I) (6) 5 2m 27.14s 1m 3f 21/01/2023 4YO+ 27.14 147.14 137.98 TALKSPORT POWERED BY FANS FILLIES´ HANDICAP (5) 6 2m 27.78s 1m 3f 20/01/2023 4YO+ 27.78 147.78 138.20 HUGE DAILY BOOSTS ONLY AT BETUK HANDICAP (DIV II) (6) 2 2m 25.23s 1m 3f 01/01/2022 4YO+ 25.23 145.23 138.57 BETWAY HANDICAP (2) 4 2m 27.89s 1m 3f 03/03/2022 4YO+ 27.89 147.89 139.15 PLAY 4 TO WIN AT BETWAY HANDICAP (4) 6 2m 28.94s 1m 3f 24/01/2022 4YO+ 28.94 148.94 139.36 PLAY 4 TO WIN AT BETWAY HANDICAP (6) 5 2m 29.20s 1m 3f 01/01/2023 4YO+ 29.20 149.2 140.04 TALKSPORT DOWNLOAD THE APP FILLIES´ HANDICAP (5) 6 2m 29.86s 1m 3f 21/01/2022 4YO+ 29.86 149.86 140.28 #BETYOURWAY AT BETWAY HANDICAP (6) 6 2m 33.53s 1m 3f 16/03/2023 4YO+ 33.53 153.53 143.95 BETUK´S OVER 40 |
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There is something odd about that sample which is all the races bar one are from the start of the year. Admittedly we've only had half of 2023 so far but in 2022 there is only one race in the latter half (or two thirds) of the year.
Time of year effects might include better horses out after winter, and the temperature is higher. Are your samples for other distances also limited to the start of each year? |
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Don't use the times from the first 3 months of the Tapeta surface, it was riding a lot slower before it bedded in. Started to get quicker from approx March 2022.
Got quicker again from approx Sep 2022 and has stayed fairly constant since, although last 2 meetings were slightly slower. |
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These are mine by the way
5f 55.0 6f 70.4 7f 83.0 8f 95.7 11f 137.1 12f 149.5 14f 176.1 16.5f 208.9 |