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There's this fav laying service with a 39pt profit to flat stakes in 2.5 years but with stake recovery it has made 541 pts profit. Even when the flat stakes profit was -7pts, the profit with progressions was around 400. So unless you're an absolute mug layer, laying favs with progressions is free moni.
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[img]https://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/glasgowcalling/084a472c334fe80f39a20f2b75cd5320.jpg?v=26800[/img]
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[img]https://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/rico-dangleflaps/929520f732c29c498d44f4512986d1de.jpg?v=156150[/img]
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I just saw a martingale flying past my window.
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Go on then Gaze -how does "stake recovery work"?
Suppose I start on day 1 with a 1 pt bet that loses How much do I stake on day 2 on a 2/1 shot? Suppose that by day 20 I've not had a winner and I'm 50 points down. How much goes on a 3s on shot? |
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If you can't lay a losing fav in 20 days, you might as well back your lay selections.
If you're at least a break-even layer, progressions make much more profits. Let's say you lay 4 favs at 6/4, BSP 2.5. The first 3 favs win. You lose -1.5, -3.0, -6.75. Then you risk 16.87 on the 4th fav and win your target 1 pt profit. There's a 0.81% chance to lose 4 in a row if you hit 70%. And even in that worst case scenario you're down just 28pts and you can take either the loss, risk 42 pts on the next race, or split your progression until you recover. |
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Gaze, that's just Martingale surely? Just adjusted to account for you having a 70% strike rate on bets with a 60% implied probability?
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HAVE YOU EVER CAME ACROSS MISTER MARTIN GALE
A VERY RICH MAN |
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Mark Labbett feels threatened as top chaser.
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So if someone makes 400pts after 2 years instead of -7pts to flat stakes, you'll tell him his strategy doesn't work and that he should quit?
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longbridge 70% is easy at 2.5, you just have to know which ones are certs.
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you guys should try the Warren Buffett system.
someone said to him when he was 30 years old"YOUR CRAZY WARREN ,IT WILL NEVER WORK,YOU CAN NOT WIN IF YOU GAMBLE"  |
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Gaze, if you have a 70% hit ratde on 60% chances, how do you manage to lose to level stakes, yet win to your staking plan?
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Ok if you hit 60% you have a 2.5% chance of losing 4 in a row. So you will have 39 succesful progressions then lose 28pts.
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