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differentdrum
28 May 23 17:27
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 21,206 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
I notice nearly all the bookmakers have shortened up Tahiyra, but none of them has pushed out Mawj? Very generous. Although I felt Tahiyra should have won at Newmarket, I think I would favour Mawj for the rematch. The draw might well play a part, but she has had a nice break, and is the one with the uncomplicated run style. It was a messy race today, but the bare form is not as good as Newmarket, and there is no obvious reason to suspect the winner has taken any step forward. I would think there is also a greater chance of getting boxed in at Ascot putting more emphasis on the jock. Not sure how many winners Hayes has ridden at Royal Ascot, but it is probably not very many.
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Report impossible123 May 28, 2023 5:58 PM BST
I'd favour Tahiyra at Ascot provided the ground is no firmer than today at The Curragh, and she's ok post today's exertion the next few days. At Newmarket Mawj had fitness and ground condition over Tahiyra; Meditate was also disadvantaged by the soft ground and her draw.

I think Mediate would confirm her juvenile superiority over Mawj at ascot too; 10/1 is a good e/w bet.
Report jimnast May 28, 2023 6:03 PM BST
8 rides placed once at ascot
Report differentdrum May 28, 2023 6:04 PM BST
Surely ground conditions at Newmarket favoured Tahiyra? Virtually all of Mawj's form on good or quicker. Meditate had the run of the race today, and possibly flattered to finish so close. She's had two shots now, and come up short, hard to see the point in a third.
Report GEORGE.B May 28, 2023 6:23 PM BST
They were discussing the 1000G on the Barstewards Enq podcast, and they were making the point, that apparently Mawj had only been back in the country two weeks prior to what visually looked a massive performance - she was on the pace running some strong fractions (for 6 of the furlongs she ran under or close to 12 seconds), and then having looked a sitting duck when Tahiyra loomed up, she's found loads to pull well clear with that rival.

So the obvious question is - will she reproduce it when, how should I put this, she hasn't had that marvellous Dubai sunshine on her back?

Btw, reading Simon Rowlands blog on the ATR website, he thought the ground had dried out quite a bit from the Saturday.

That is a huge difference, and, viewed alongside other times on the two days (adjusted for ability, weight carried, pace, and so on), suggests that “soft” was correct on Saturday but that “good to soft, tending to good” would have been a truer reflection on Sunday.

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/sectional-spotlight/09-May-2023/newmarket-guineas-meeting
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 6:29 PM BST
I can't see Mawj getting beaten on decent ground if she goes to Ascot. I don't think T ran as well today as she did at Newmarket.
Report impossible123 May 28, 2023 6:31 PM BST
Tahiyra is best with a bit of give, but Newmarket was too soft given her 1st race of season; Mawj goes on any, but put in her place 2x by Meditate as a juvenile.

I believe if Meditate is sitting just behind Mawj (or pacesetters), with Tahiyra next to the rails in traffic Mediate would re-affirm her juvenile form with Mawj; 10/1 a good e/w bet.

I think Statuette is still on the sideline.
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 6:51 PM BST
So you think 1/2 for a place is good value impossible,the best Mediate can hope for unless Tahiyra does not run,not even non runner no bet? Not only are you betting on 3 places when on the day probably 4 if 12+ runners,where is the value in that when prices will be similar if the main protagonists line up?
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 6:52 PM BST
Mediate was bigger than  Mawj when she beat her last year. Mawj is bigger than her now. Tahiyra is smaller than them both. I think Mawj looks like being pretty special this year. Anything can happen of course but on known form Mawj is the best 3yo filly miler at the moment.
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 6:54 PM BST
Mawj is a pony honcho,go to specsavers!!
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 7:10 PM BST
I think Cagliari you shouldn't talk nonsense. Mawj is bigger than Tahiyra (who really is small) and Mediate. I'm not quite sure how you feel so bold as to assume otherwise Cagliari.
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:14 PM BST
Mawj 15.1 hands,Mediate 15.4 and Tahirya 15.3,not a lot in it but 1.01 Mawj is the smallest,strangely her trainer agrees honcho,or are you going by musculature or BMI?
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 7:15 PM BST
Where did you get that information please?
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:17 PM BST
A reliable source.........hth!!
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 7:18 PM BST
Particularly who told you Mediate was 15.4?
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:18 PM BST
Btw necks,heads and lugs do not count!!Wink
Report truehoncho May 28, 2023 7:21 PM BST
because you absolute buffoon, 15.4 is 16 hands. What a clown you are. Laugh
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:24 PM BST
How do you make 15.4 equal 16 honcho?
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:25 PM BST
A hand is 4",.4 is 1.6 inches,got it yet?
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:28 PM BST
A filly is measured differently than a colt btw,like the inside leg of a woman where a measuring stick is used rather than a tape measure.

Subtract the wet from the dry for accuracy!!!Wink
Report CagliariG May 28, 2023 7:34 PM BST
Whatever you do btw do not try the measuring stick like Lara did,he subtracted the dark brown from the light brown and ended up in A & E!!
Report impossible123 June 15, 2023 4:30 PM BST
Is Meditate a confirmed runner? If so she'd easily split the two principals given decent ground.
Report sageform June 16, 2023 11:26 AM BST
Had a quick look at the rest of the runners declared but hard to find one to take them both on. The French fillies are the only potential dark ones.
Report EastLower Gooner June 16, 2023 2:05 PM BST
15.4 hands but 16 in heels obviously

Plain
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