There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
I have a problem, one of my holy grails between 1/2020 and 5/2022 had 1524 selections and 33.92% strike rate at average winning odds 4.58. Then suddenly from 6/2022 until today the strike rate dropped to 21.8% at AWO 4.61 with 601 selections. What are the odds of that happening? Did the BHA conspire to make my holy grail horses lose? Is it the whip rules or what?
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 28
|
By:
Richard Johnson retired
 |
|
By:
94% of regular gamblers starting losing when the great mancalled it a day
|
|
By:
Nowt to do with statistics , it's a probability question you've posed.
|
|
By:
It is a Mythical Post - From the Forum Attention Seeker ...
Who would appear to have escaped from his Padded Cell - again. |
|
By:
Statistics don't give answers they merely provoke more questions.
|
|
By:
Gaze733 21 May 23 18:46
I have a problem A penile prosthetic is an implant that allows men with erectile dysfunction to have an erection. Prosthetics may also be used for patients with Peyronie’s disease. Is penile prosthetic surgery right for me? yes imo |
|
By:
six out of every four people don't understand statistics.
For gaze, make that seven! |
|
By:
There are 10 types of people in this world, those who understand binary and those who don't
|
|
By:
[img]https://images.onesite.com/community.betfair.com/user/rico-dangleflaps/929520f732c29c498d44f4512986d1de.jpg?v=156150[/img]
|
|
By:
Statistics is an academic subject. I did study it as a post graduate student. It involves analysing data and the ones I am familiar with are normal distributions and from that, probabilities from standard deviations from a mean (average). That is relevant to horse racing in that the handicap ratings have a distribution and presumably a standard deviation. In simple terms, look at the height of humans. That can range from 5 feet to 7 feet with a few outside that range. If the average is 5.9 for men then one standard deviation would be around 5 inches so 66% of men would be between 5.4 and 6.2 as 66% of a normally distributed sample are within one standard deviation of the mean For the official handicap marks of horses I would love to know what the mean and the standard deviation are. Two standard deviations above or below the mean only occurs in 2.5% of a population which in racing could mean Group or listed class or useless depending which end they are. Do not take my figures literally, they are there to explain how statistics work. In a scientific experiment, any difference between 2 treatments (with or without a drug for instance) needs to differ by 2 standard deviations to give a reasonable certainty that the difference is not random but is due to the treatment. In other words the odds of it being random are 100/2.5 or 40/1. In medical or other scientific studies, that is the generally expected probability that is considered "significant" as described in Scientific papers as "statistically significant at the 2.5% level".
None of this is much help to the OP  |
|
By:
Nice intelligent response Sage , but i think i'll stick with statistics don't give answers they merely provoke more questions.
Think Mark Twain probably summed statistics up nicely all those years ago  |
|
By:
If Gaze's "holy grail" system is unchanged over the period, then I would expect its profitably to drop over time.
Either or both of: - someone else happens upon the same system and now you are fighting them for the available money or - the people whose money you are taking when you win wake up to their strategy being a losing one and stop putting their money up |
|
By:
|
|
By:
Fortunately I have a new grail which has had 0 losing months in the last 18, I'm going all in on that one.
|
|
By:
Do you play AW and Turf? Is it possible that one is much more profitable than the other and that there
was a much higher % of,eg, AW races 6/2022 to date ,than the previous dates? |
|
By:
Gambler claiming to be cursed , that's probably the 2nd best excuse on record.
Best one is claiming to have picked the right selection but someone / something else loses them money , like jockey , trainer , horse or some other imponderable. Good luck Gaze , keep searching |
|
By:
Gaze -you asked "What are the odds of that happening?" . That's probability.
|
|
By:
What are the odds of scoring 4 goals in a professional football match and ending up on the losing side? (happened 3 weeks ago)
What are the odds of scoring all 4 goals in a 2-2 draw? (happened twice in the top tier of English football) What are the odds that the OP's opening post is 100% correct? All roughly the same I would imagine |
|
By:
If the OP was 100% correct you couldn't calculate the probability anyway as there is insufficient information. 3 winners from 3 selections at 11/1 1/1000 and 1/1000 is roughly the same average winning odds as 3 winners at 3/1. If the odds were fair the chances of the first happening is a little over 8% and the second 1.6%
|
|
By:
Can i have a box of 20 Chicken Nuggets with Sweet & Sour dip please?
|
|
By:
Sorry - wrong thread!
|
|
By:
Is the sweet and sour sauce to mask the rubberiness of the chopped and shaped chicken?
|
|
By:
Another problem with the OP is the timing of the cut. It's not random, but chosen. If you tossed a coin 2,000 times it's very likely that you are going to get 10 heads or tails in a row. If you then ask a question saying what are the chances after 1264 coin tosses with 627 tails and 637 heads, that you will then got 10 tails in a row is about 1 in 1,000. But the chances of it happening at any point is greater than 80%
|
|
By:
|
|
By:
AWO gives you a clear picture, this 1/1000 nonsense with a sample size of 3 doesn't matter.
|
|
By:
The curse theory makes the most sense.
|
|
By:
Do you have any GRAPHS which are more than likely to offer an explanation ?
|
|
By:
Yeah but they wouldn't help. One graph wins every month and the second breaks even
|