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Had a bet on the 6pm US race and the odds on my bet were reduced to 1.02 from 2.08. The horse went off at 2.2 - tell me how is this possible?! Apparently there was a 62.9% reduction which still doesn't add up!
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I do NOT bet on USA Racing - so this is just a 'stab' at the potential scenario - from an overall appraisal of betting and Betfair.
Betfair REDUCTION FACTORS are PRE-Set from when the Markets are first loaded/available - for example every UK race tomorrow - and are, presumably, based on some kind of (mythical) Betting Forecast. I do not think that those Reduction Factors automatically CONTINUALLY Change/are Updated AS the Prices in the Market Changes - and are, therefore, often NOT perfectly in Tandem/Adjusted with the 'Off' Prices in the Betfair Market - (Although, I do stand to be corrected on that one) Another Example - taken at Random - is the 04:50 Taree (Australia) where there is currently Just £26 Matched - Yet Every horse ALREADY HAS a REDUCTION FACTOR against it's Name on the GRAPH. Given that USA Morning Line/Betting FORECAST Prices are notoriously NONSENSE relative the Race Time Actual Markets - and often bear NO Relativity to the actual Race TIME Market Prices - Then, perhaps, this may be something of an Explanation, here. Don't Shoot the Messenger if I am entirely wrong ... am merely trying to assist - others may have a more definitive answer. |
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revs..= degenerate = seek help for the addiction.
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thanks for the explanation onlooker..this is the last time I'll be betting on the US racing.
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It's not just US racing. The reduction factors can be a sick joke if you are on the wrong end, I've had the exact same occurrence on UK racing, infact .
worse, when I ended backing a 2/1 shot at 1.01. A few weeks back I layed a horse in a 6/7 runner field in the each way market and the hot favourite was withdrawn incurring a 46% reduction in the win market. The place reduction factor was 18% but the each way reduction factor was just 10%. Of course the damn thing won! Total lottery. |
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If a horse gets withdrawn at a short price the first priority is to try and get out of the market. No matter American or British.
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Or lay it
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scratch that B2L 2nd fav
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