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06 May 23
10:47
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Date Joined:
09 Mar 04
Here you go & let me know your picks :)
1. Hit Show – The last horse to win from Stall 1 was the mighty Ferdinand in 1986 under an incredible ride from Hall of Famer Bill Shoemaker (a race to YouTube) so it will take a monumental effort for him to win from here. Does have a Derby trial win in the Withers but lost out to Lord Miles by a short head in the Wood Memorial.
2. Verifying – The Coolmore entrant who went down all guns blazing versus Tapit Trice in the Bluegrass. If you like Tapit Trice then why not this fella at almost 3x times the price. The two did pull well clear of the 3rd place finisher and it was pretty much a photo finish on the line.
3. Two Phil’s – Has 11 lengths to make up on Forte from their Breeders Cup Juvenile encounter but does have a win at the track in the G2 Steet Sense and won the Jeff Ruby Stakes on the synthetic last time out by a wide margin and in a very fast time (Rich Strike came into this race last year with a wide margin win at Churchill albeit against very lowly competition and a 4th place finish in the Jeff Ruby).
4. Confidence Game – Another boasting course form with 2 wins at Churchill to his name and won the Rebel last time out with the likes of Reincarnate and Verifying well beaten but that was 70 days ago so maybe others have improved again since. Has been working extremely week at Churchill. Also technically on collateral form with Verifying he’s better than Tapit Trice? It’s a long to have been off the track but Desormeaux says this was the plan all along.
5. Tapit Trice – Winner of back to back Derby trials i.e. the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes…as a comparison Street Sense won at Tampa but finished 2nd in the Bluegrass enroute to his Derby win. He’s straight up the Brave Inca of the field. Tough, honest and won’t back down from a fight. At numerous stages in the Bluegrass I thought he would give up but he didn’t. The concern is he doesn’t break all that well so he might find himself with a lot to do but if the pace collapses and he can work his way back into things without doing too much then he can flex his muscles on this lot.
6. Kingbarns – Unbeaten 3 out of 3 and capped off his Derby prep with a coast to coast win in the Louisiana Derby. Two problems are that he basically walked on the lead and he loses Flavien Prat. That being said Jose Ortiz steps into the hot seat and he’s no mug and the horse doesn’t need to lead to win as he showed in his previous races.
7. Reincarnate – Winner of the Sham Stakes at the start of the year but beaten by Confidence Game in the Rebel and then slapped up by Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby. One of the likely pace setters with Johnny V on board.
8. Mage – I thought he was unlucky in the Florida Derby…he took a big step forward and seemingly had the race won with less than a furlong to go but Forte clearly had a stone in hand on him because he just turned on the afterburners and won cosily. If he can take another step forward and Forte bombs out then it wouldn’t surprise me if he casts a spell on the field.
9. Skinner (NON RUNNER) – Super Nintendo Chalmers is seething about his antepost bet
10. Practical Move (NON RUNNER) - A real shame because he won 3 straight Derby Trials in the Los Alamitos Futurity, the San Felipe and then the Santa Anita Derby which might’ve been strongest of the Derby trials. He’s out because of a high temperature so maybe this is a blessing in disguise and he can develop into a Classic contender over the summer.
11. Disarm – Had no chance when trying to run on from the back off a very slow pace vs Kingsbarns in the Louisiana and well beaten off in the Lexington a couple of weeks back. Difficult to make a case for.
12. Jace’s Road – Did smash up Raise Cain in the Gun Runner but struggled behind Disarm and Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby…Florent Geroux does keep the ride
13. Sun Thunder – He’s taken beatings from Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Tapit Trice and Verifying in last few starts so this is going to tough.
14. Angel of Empire – Won the Risen Star Stakes beating off Sun Thunder & Two Phil’s and then delivered what I felt was the most complete Derby trial win when taking down the Arkansas Derby. Settled mid pack but when Flavien asked him to move midway down the back stretch he made up 8 lengths in easy fashion to take the lead and draw right away from them. I like what he did in the final 100 yards…he was starting to really stretch out like he would be better for the extra furlong.
15. Forte aka The Champ - Won 3 G1s in a row last season and warmed up for the Derby with wins in the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby. Will be cherry ripe for this afternoon and granted luck he ought to batter this lot. That being said…he hasn’t crossed swords with the likes of Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire as yet. I know people have been crabbing his Florida Derby win because Mage ran right by him before the turn and looked all over the winner but give this horse some credit because it only took a few strides and he was back in front and eased down on the line. Quite clear he had loads in hand and they were just trying to take it easy.
16. Raise Cain – Won the Gotham back in March but then well beaten off by Tapit Trice and Verifying in the Bluegrass so has a mountain to climb here.
17. Derma Sotogake – All I know is that won the UAE Derby gate to wire. That’s it. And apparently it was a super impressive fast time and I’ve heard all sorts spoken about him this week i.e. he’s going to wire this field, the Americans haven’t faced someone as fast as him, even his lowest speed figure is good enough for this, he doesn’t need to lead to beat this lot because he’s so fast. Jeez. It’s like he’s trained by Aidan and has the speed for a July Cup. I know he’s good but a UAE Derby winner? Really…
18. Rocket Can – Won the Holy Bull in February but then beaten in back to back races by two heavy weights…going down 4.5 lengths to Forte in the Fountain of Youth and then by 5 lengths to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas. He’s got a tough task on here.
19. Lord Miles (NON RUNNER) – Kept on gamely to beat off Hit Show in the Wood Memorial but now scratched
20. Continuar (NON RUNNER) – I’m calling shenanigans here...did the Japanese take him out to help Mandarin Hero get in? He ran in Saudi & Meydan and has been in the US for some time but apparently he’s still not at peak fitness LOL okay lads whatever. If I owned this horse I would sack the trainer.
21. Cyclone Mischief – 12 lengths behind Rocket Can on his season debut then put in his place twice by Forte. This is asking a lot.
22. Mandarin Hero – Somehow he how he snuck in through the back door. 4 out 5 in Japan before running the race of life to give Practical Move a real fright in the Santa Anita Derby and probably would’ve won in another half furlong. The experience of US racing would’ve done him the world of good and I’m happy to see Kazushi Kimura keeps the ride. He’s a nice kid and I’ve followed him quite a lot with success at Woodbine but he spent a lot of time down in California the last few months and he’s shown he can mix it with the top jockeys down there. He’ll be in stall 18 with all of the non runners so it’s going to be a big ask but who knows. Nice horse, Nice Jockey, Nice Trial.
23. King Russell – Ran on well to finish 4.5 lengths behind Angel of Empire in Arkansas but the truth is that race was a wrap at the top the stretch so maybe a little flattered to finish so close but I wouldn’t completely overlook him because he could easily replicate the same trip and grab a place here.
Final Picks Time
It seems like every other year the Arkansas Derby produces a very lovely horse i.e. Cyberknife, American Pharoah, Bodemiester, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones etc and maybe this year will be no different because I was very taken with Angel of Empire and I’m confident he has all the tools to master whatever this race throws at him so I’m happy to take the 7/1 each way 4 places as my main bet.
Practical Move would’ve been a legit player in here so I can’t ignore Mandarin Hero and I think there’s something very intriguing with Confidence Game…I just got a weird vibe with him.
Main Bet – Angel of Empire Each Way 4 places 7/1
Savers – Mandarin Hero Each Way 4 places 20/1 & Confidence Game Each Way 4 places 28/1
ELG
1. Hit Show – The last horse to win from Stall 1 was the mighty Ferdinand in 1986 under an incredible ride from Hall of Famer Bill Shoemaker (a race to YouTube) so it will take a monumental effort for him to win from here. Does have a Derby trial win in the Withers but lost out to Lord Miles by a short head in the Wood Memorial.
2. Verifying – The Coolmore entrant who went down all guns blazing versus Tapit Trice in the Bluegrass. If you like Tapit Trice then why not this fella at almost 3x times the price. The two did pull well clear of the 3rd place finisher and it was pretty much a photo finish on the line.
3. Two Phil’s – Has 11 lengths to make up on Forte from their Breeders Cup Juvenile encounter but does have a win at the track in the G2 Steet Sense and won the Jeff Ruby Stakes on the synthetic last time out by a wide margin and in a very fast time (Rich Strike came into this race last year with a wide margin win at Churchill albeit against very lowly competition and a 4th place finish in the Jeff Ruby).
4. Confidence Game – Another boasting course form with 2 wins at Churchill to his name and won the Rebel last time out with the likes of Reincarnate and Verifying well beaten but that was 70 days ago so maybe others have improved again since. Has been working extremely week at Churchill. Also technically on collateral form with Verifying he’s better than Tapit Trice? It’s a long to have been off the track but Desormeaux says this was the plan all along.
5. Tapit Trice – Winner of back to back Derby trials i.e. the Tampa Bay Derby and the Bluegrass Stakes…as a comparison Street Sense won at Tampa but finished 2nd in the Bluegrass enroute to his Derby win. He’s straight up the Brave Inca of the field. Tough, honest and won’t back down from a fight. At numerous stages in the Bluegrass I thought he would give up but he didn’t. The concern is he doesn’t break all that well so he might find himself with a lot to do but if the pace collapses and he can work his way back into things without doing too much then he can flex his muscles on this lot.
6. Kingbarns – Unbeaten 3 out of 3 and capped off his Derby prep with a coast to coast win in the Louisiana Derby. Two problems are that he basically walked on the lead and he loses Flavien Prat. That being said Jose Ortiz steps into the hot seat and he’s no mug and the horse doesn’t need to lead to win as he showed in his previous races.
7. Reincarnate – Winner of the Sham Stakes at the start of the year but beaten by Confidence Game in the Rebel and then slapped up by Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby. One of the likely pace setters with Johnny V on board.
8. Mage – I thought he was unlucky in the Florida Derby…he took a big step forward and seemingly had the race won with less than a furlong to go but Forte clearly had a stone in hand on him because he just turned on the afterburners and won cosily. If he can take another step forward and Forte bombs out then it wouldn’t surprise me if he casts a spell on the field.
9. Skinner (NON RUNNER) – Super Nintendo Chalmers is seething about his antepost bet
10. Practical Move (NON RUNNER) - A real shame because he won 3 straight Derby Trials in the Los Alamitos Futurity, the San Felipe and then the Santa Anita Derby which might’ve been strongest of the Derby trials. He’s out because of a high temperature so maybe this is a blessing in disguise and he can develop into a Classic contender over the summer.
11. Disarm – Had no chance when trying to run on from the back off a very slow pace vs Kingsbarns in the Louisiana and well beaten off in the Lexington a couple of weeks back. Difficult to make a case for.
12. Jace’s Road – Did smash up Raise Cain in the Gun Runner but struggled behind Disarm and Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby…Florent Geroux does keep the ride
13. Sun Thunder – He’s taken beatings from Angel of Empire, Kingsbarns, Disarm, Jace’s Road, Tapit Trice and Verifying in last few starts so this is going to tough.
14. Angel of Empire – Won the Risen Star Stakes beating off Sun Thunder & Two Phil’s and then delivered what I felt was the most complete Derby trial win when taking down the Arkansas Derby. Settled mid pack but when Flavien asked him to move midway down the back stretch he made up 8 lengths in easy fashion to take the lead and draw right away from them. I like what he did in the final 100 yards…he was starting to really stretch out like he would be better for the extra furlong.
15. Forte aka The Champ - Won 3 G1s in a row last season and warmed up for the Derby with wins in the Holy Bull and the Florida Derby. Will be cherry ripe for this afternoon and granted luck he ought to batter this lot. That being said…he hasn’t crossed swords with the likes of Tapit Trice and Angel of Empire as yet. I know people have been crabbing his Florida Derby win because Mage ran right by him before the turn and looked all over the winner but give this horse some credit because it only took a few strides and he was back in front and eased down on the line. Quite clear he had loads in hand and they were just trying to take it easy.
16. Raise Cain – Won the Gotham back in March but then well beaten off by Tapit Trice and Verifying in the Bluegrass so has a mountain to climb here.
17. Derma Sotogake – All I know is that won the UAE Derby gate to wire. That’s it. And apparently it was a super impressive fast time and I’ve heard all sorts spoken about him this week i.e. he’s going to wire this field, the Americans haven’t faced someone as fast as him, even his lowest speed figure is good enough for this, he doesn’t need to lead to beat this lot because he’s so fast. Jeez. It’s like he’s trained by Aidan and has the speed for a July Cup. I know he’s good but a UAE Derby winner? Really…
18. Rocket Can – Won the Holy Bull in February but then beaten in back to back races by two heavy weights…going down 4.5 lengths to Forte in the Fountain of Youth and then by 5 lengths to Angel of Empire in the Arkansas. He’s got a tough task on here.
19. Lord Miles (NON RUNNER) – Kept on gamely to beat off Hit Show in the Wood Memorial but now scratched
20. Continuar (NON RUNNER) – I’m calling shenanigans here...did the Japanese take him out to help Mandarin Hero get in? He ran in Saudi & Meydan and has been in the US for some time but apparently he’s still not at peak fitness LOL okay lads whatever. If I owned this horse I would sack the trainer.
21. Cyclone Mischief – 12 lengths behind Rocket Can on his season debut then put in his place twice by Forte. This is asking a lot.
22. Mandarin Hero – Somehow he how he snuck in through the back door. 4 out 5 in Japan before running the race of life to give Practical Move a real fright in the Santa Anita Derby and probably would’ve won in another half furlong. The experience of US racing would’ve done him the world of good and I’m happy to see Kazushi Kimura keeps the ride. He’s a nice kid and I’ve followed him quite a lot with success at Woodbine but he spent a lot of time down in California the last few months and he’s shown he can mix it with the top jockeys down there. He’ll be in stall 18 with all of the non runners so it’s going to be a big ask but who knows. Nice horse, Nice Jockey, Nice Trial.
23. King Russell – Ran on well to finish 4.5 lengths behind Angel of Empire in Arkansas but the truth is that race was a wrap at the top the stretch so maybe a little flattered to finish so close but I wouldn’t completely overlook him because he could easily replicate the same trip and grab a place here.
Final Picks Time
It seems like every other year the Arkansas Derby produces a very lovely horse i.e. Cyberknife, American Pharoah, Bodemiester, Curlin, Afleet Alex, Smarty Jones etc and maybe this year will be no different because I was very taken with Angel of Empire and I’m confident he has all the tools to master whatever this race throws at him so I’m happy to take the 7/1 each way 4 places as my main bet.
Practical Move would’ve been a legit player in here so I can’t ignore Mandarin Hero and I think there’s something very intriguing with Confidence Game…I just got a weird vibe with him.
Main Bet – Angel of Empire Each Way 4 places 7/1
Savers – Mandarin Hero Each Way 4 places 20/1 & Confidence Game Each Way 4 places 28/1
ELG
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So a post race review.
Angel Of Empire - Pretty clear the plan was to avoid the early pace but they ended up too far back and he did very well all things considered. Tried to mount a challenge late on but it was asking a bit too much of him. Still a nice horse. Only thing I’m angry about is the 20% rule4. Tapit Trice - had no chance from there. Pretty much put a line through that. Mage - I should’ve had a saver on him after Forte was taken out but I couldn’t back everything. This might not have been a one off result because he did improve and run by Forte last time only to get mugged late by him and looked to me like he improved again last night. Forte - I think Churchill were taking no risks when they got the vet to scratch him. Pletcher said he was 100% ok. So hopefully we get a rematch with Mage at some point. They must be p ssed that Mage won. Practical Move - he missed the race due to a fever which could be a blessing in disguise…I’d take him back to California and build him up for the summer races and the Classic later in the year. Derma Sotagake - that was disappointing. Seems like they genuinely believed he was the best horse in the race and tried to ride him like that but he either didn’t stay or found nil approaching the final furlong. I’d like to see them give him a chance from the front next time. Monmouth is a speed favouring track and the Haskell is 9 furlongs so maybe that’s the one for him or maybe they just sulk and go home. But can we stop with the Annual hype for the Japanese now? This race is getting like the Arc for them. Two Phil’s - Did incredibly well considering he was always up there and beat off all of the other pace horses turning in. I think it’s straight to the Preakness with him. And finally the BBC…that’s a pretty pathetic article this morning. A nameless one too so I’m guessing it’s a chatGPT job. |
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Obviously, limited interest on here. There's a bit more for the Breeders Cup, but that's about it.
I find it very difficult to read US racing because it's far more about getting fractions right, and when that's messed up it looks like horses are walking at the end. If I was you I would have been quite miffed about last night. I would imagine Angel Of Empire would be quite short for a Belmont. Sadly, I backed Derma Sotogake each-way five places. He really should have managed that but had a terrible trip/ride. I think the idea might have been to go forward, but he didn't break, and his race was over after a few yards. Any idea why we didn't get the US feed for a couple of hours last night? Other than having to endure more of Lucky it is so much more enjoyable. Is there a horse you have in mind for the Breeders Cup that might be a bit left field? |
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Completely left field…General Jim won the Pat Day Mile last night on the undercard and there’s a Classic pedigree on the distaff side ie Curlin won his and Havre De Grace finished 4th in hers.
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Angel of Empire was the best horse in the race,unlucky.
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