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21 Apr 23
17:29
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Hillsin
is someone having a giraffe?
Hillsin
is someone having a giraffe?
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Replies: 9
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May have been modest with Gavin Cromwell but with a country downgrade it's not the biggest surprise.
Maybe not today but sometime in future. |
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Young woman trainer seems a upcoming prospect
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They had been saving this one up, too .... an hour later (6:35 Exeter)
21Mar23 Wind Surgery 15Mar23 Hun C4NvH 5K 2m4½f Sft 11-5 t1 PU/7 Space Voyage 11-0 80/1 D Bass — — 0 14Jan23 Wet C4NvH 5K 2m3½f Sft 11-2 5/7 btn 58L Hitching Jacking 11-4 40/1 B Hughes — 40 74 29Dec22 Don C4NvH 5K 2m3½f Gd 11-0 9/15 btn 85L Moon Hunter 11-6 33/1 G Sheehan — 15 47 03Nov21 Chp C4MdH 4K 2m3½f Sft 11-4 12/16 btn 158L Brave Kingdom 11-4 10/1 T O'Brien — — 0 WON ... (Morning price: 25/1 28/1 25/1 20/1 18/1 16/1 18/1 16/1 10/1 12/1) (Ring price: 12/1 11/1 10/1 9/1) SP 9/1 |
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There are often comments about the dangers of backing on low grade all-weather but National Hunt low grade handicaps should also come with wealth warning imo.
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National Hunt far worse with horses barely unable to get round the course half the time but suddenly then being brought back to life.
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* barely able.
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Brian
There's always two ways of looking at these things , swerving low graded races is one way but also reviewing your selection criteria and attacking this type of race is another. Each to their own as always , good luck today  |
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Hayden
I agree with you if you mean reduce significantly the form influence and look more at the market. I am always looking for value and I find it easier to find value on the laying side. A good example, I'm sure there are many but this is a recent pain, I laid Likeable Chancer in NH Tramore handicap this week at 20 when he was showing at 40s on the books. Great value as the horse had very little form and was a 9-y-o maiden yet I had doubts as there was definitely continued money for him on Betfair (I could have easily traded out but I just couldn't see him winning). He went off in front was traded as low as 8 after a couple of fences ans was never headed and won cosily. I would suggest that no punter, unless involved with stable, could have selected that unless noticing strange betting patterns. |
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Good post Brian , i've got 6 or 7 criteria for poor race selections but none of them are anything to do with form , see your point with the Tramore example but i'd want to know how many runs it'd had in a handicap as even for these form students floating around i can't see how they ever equate form with horses that have had a very limited amount of handicap runs , obviously you'd never back every handicap debutant with other criteria but you certainly should never lay them , horses with that profile tend to have hidden talents that very few people seem aware exist.
Just noticed Likeable Chancer has had plenty of handicap runs so non applicable in this case but maybe the money was traders knowing or anticipating a front running tactic so nicking some free money as the horse looks to have run far more in the van than its previous runs. Good to chat about these things without the conversation developing into a slanging debate. |