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I've heard over the years that there are still doubters as regards this theory which I think seemed to rear its head about 30 years ago.
Much has been speculated as to the whys & wherefores about a relatively quick reappearance after an enforced lay-off though that
makes me consider what the best course of action would be and what gains the best results for the next episode of a horse's career.
What I'm interested in is after a victory, then a 'bouncing' defeat, the next performance - where do they usually stand? Are they
back 'on track' with a win following a couple of years on the sidelines and then a shocker? How does that seem to go?
I'm very much an enthusiast but I'm aware that there are a few people around who take things much further, so a pointer to
a study of this would be appreciated...as would your own memories of how things panned out.
I remember the excellent Sabin Du Loir who beat Dawn Run in the Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle, having 4 years off and coming
back at the highest level and also to a lesser degree the same trainer's (Michael Dickinson) Delius, returning from a similar
sabbatical though both had moved on by then to other yards. I can't recall whether there was a bounce involved with either
of them but I'm sure someone else will remember.
Much has been speculated as to the whys & wherefores about a relatively quick reappearance after an enforced lay-off though that
makes me consider what the best course of action would be and what gains the best results for the next episode of a horse's career.
What I'm interested in is after a victory, then a 'bouncing' defeat, the next performance - where do they usually stand? Are they
back 'on track' with a win following a couple of years on the sidelines and then a shocker? How does that seem to go?
I'm very much an enthusiast but I'm aware that there are a few people around who take things much further, so a pointer to
a study of this would be appreciated...as would your own memories of how things panned out.
I remember the excellent Sabin Du Loir who beat Dawn Run in the Sun Alliance Novice Hurdle, having 4 years off and coming
back at the highest level and also to a lesser degree the same trainer's (Michael Dickinson) Delius, returning from a similar
sabbatical though both had moved on by then to other yards. I can't recall whether there was a bounce involved with either
of them but I'm sure someone else will remember.
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It's very much an idea that began in the US. If you get hold of a copy of Beyer On Speed, you'll find some background on where it started and a discussion on whether it's valid in Chapter 2.
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Thanks Anorak - what are your thoughts about backing a horse who's won after a long break, then suffered a crushing defeat?
I thought of all people on here you'd be the first to provide the most notable examples in the highest grade. |
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I was thinking about this yesterday after looking for a 'rag' to surprise in the first race
against Mighty Potter but James Du Berlais 'only' had a 2 year hiatus. What I can't help but think is why would a top owner & trainer persevere with a horse who looks like he's gonna be draining them of their time & money? |
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I find bounce is a bit like a kind of 'sods law' type of rule and idea.
If you back a possible bounce one, it bounces and tails in... If you lay a possible bounce one, it romps in like it's fresh as a daisy! |
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Shiskin was terrific at Ascot ......but I do not fancy him one bit to win today.....no doubt if this does happen , this ridiculous term will be used by the media..............
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It's not an exact science and open to interpretation eg Energumene and Honeysuckle. Today is the turn of Shishkin. I think there's value at 7/4. I wonder if the big punter of Energumene (bounce factor opined too prior) is sticking his snout into him.
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626 - in my view there is most certainly something to this theory as there is plenty of evidence to go on.
I started a thread last flat season about the 1/8 shot Inspiral definitely being one to avoid as there were enough question marks about her...and the bounce factor was a major one - I hope a few took notice and didn't include her as a 'fluffer' in their accumulators as she was extremely shorter than she deserved to be. |
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Gibberish,
Well I've been around for a long time, and I suppose the most obvious example is Brigadier Gerard getting beaten at York, after a hard race at a mile and half at Ascot in the King George. Was that a 'bounce' - I have my doubts and I'm essentially a sceptic on the theory. I reckon that when a horse is said to have bounced, there's generally other reasons you can put forward for the defeat. One to watch today is Blazing Khal in the Stayers Hurdle. He won 32 days ago after a 14 month layoff and every winner of the Stayers since 2006 has had at least six weeks off before the race. |
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There do seem to be differing definitions of the bounce factor but what I'm mainly
questioning is a performance after a substantial lay-off (usually due to injury) rather than the aftermath of a gruelling race which could well be construed as bouncing. |
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Applies to some horses but not others which makes it guesswork , nowhere near an exact science.
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I actually ran a 'bounce strategy' for a while several years ago - laying many selections that seemed to fit the criteria.
Can remember tearing my hair out watching horses such as a 'main and max bet selection' that had been off for about 2 years, had run 3 days previously winning a hard race - 3 days later went on and ran in a harder race with more weight, won by about 5 lengths on the bridle. I think I gave it up after that one. |
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But equally I sometimes scream at the tele if some trainer makes his excuses about having had a 'hard race' something like 30 odd days previously!!
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Shiskin did well to finish second ........his junmping was abysmal today.......
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That was some SUn Alliance with Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup winner Dawn Run and i reckon Grand National winner West Tip was either 3rd or 4th.
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