Fraught with danger.

Wasn't it always thus! I think you mean risk rather than danger though!

Although I have no stats to back it up, there does seem to be a dearth of longer priced winners at the moment.

Unless the market suddenly stops being efficient(pretty impossible given neither backers or layers will allow it..)  odds will continue to reflect their(nearby) probability. Seeing spells of shorter price hosses winning happens more regular and is more apparent simply because they're more likely to run up good spells than those with lesser chance. Take the Galton board..

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If we pick our ball and back it to land far left or far right.. we won't win very often simply because the path to make it there remains far greater than what it does to make it more central.

Always expect the unexpected imo (because if you're looking for a pricing error, that is where it is most likely to be). The trouble with that (for most "punters") is that they can't handle the inevitable variance and lose to boredom or indiscipline.

p.s. - I thought this was gonna be another "Black Market' thread