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As a long standing punter.
Are there others out there that never back EW?
My ground rules eliminate betting on 95% of handicapps and 2yr old races.
I just see no value in it.
My betting profile would be on average 2 bets a week £50-£100.
With exception of festivals and when I go racing.
AP betting was a regular option but not now. The books have long been not interested in offering anything near value. They just use it to headline soundbites.
Are there others out there that never back EW?
My ground rules eliminate betting on 95% of handicapps and 2yr old races.
I just see no value in it.
My betting profile would be on average 2 bets a week £50-£100.
With exception of festivals and when I go racing.
AP betting was a regular option but not now. The books have long been not interested in offering anything near value. They just use it to headline soundbites.
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All down to the price…
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The angles are certainly less than they used to be. Six places 1/4 odds in big handicaps are gone and "dirty" races where the fav is odds on are rarely any value, with huge differentials between the win prices on the exchange and here.
Hills went 1/5, 3 places in a 6 horse race yesterday, so that must have been some value if you fancied anything in the race, (I assume that you could have taken SP rather than amy hills adjusted prices). |
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I only ever bet each way...........usually on the first couple in the betting in the "bad " each races .....prices on anything bigger than 5"s are useless with the books ,,,,,the fav is where the value nowadays.....
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Haven't bet EW since we have been able to bet place only on the exchanges, An old fashioned bookmakers bet now well past it's sell by date.
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I would rather bet 20:80 Win:Place on here than EW for singles - that way you get a reasonable return if your horse places, rather than most of your Place winnings going to cover your losing Win stake.
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have disagree ,i am a fully paid up each way sniper............
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@skip
I'm intrigued "prices on anything bigger than 5"s are useless with the books... i am a fully paid up each way sniper" At those prices you barely break even on the place - is that the intent? You're essentially backing the horse to win but the place portion means you don't lose if it comes close? |
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Crumbs off the table stuff from skip.
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Always seems a no brainer rule for me personally.
Back e/way with a bookmaker when the place % is over broke , singles or an acca if the race cards are kind enough on the day. When backing in big over rounds generally handicaps play the exchange and back two single wins in a 100% book rather than one selection e/way if appropriate. You need both a bookmaker ( via shop syndicate ) and the exchange to maximise opportunities and not become or remain a one dimensional punter. Good luck today all  |
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A view on skip's posts....
It's practically impossible to lose long term the " skip " way once you get your math's correct and apply the necessary discipline and refrain from subsidising one strategy with another. Tried and tested over many many years. |
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Longbridge
I get why you play the 20/80 method but you can't compare to the skip way of playing , they are totally different strategies and ways of thinking. Not saying one is right or wrong but your way is based on personal opinion and skip is based on mathematics because bookmakers are forced to pay 3 places at 1/5th the odds. Wirth respect as well , your 20% win part will be better than skip's for sure but your 80% place will be of no value on the 100% exchange place book , and infinitely less value than skip's , when you combine the two markets long term i'd say skip would undoubtedly come out on top. Each to their own though as always and whatever works for you |
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Hayden - you're right of course.
I am trying to find value by finding horses I think are overpriced. skip I think is trying to find value by knowing the implied Place market portion of an EW bet is overbroke, if I understand you correctly - so finding value mathmetically from the nature of the market? |
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Hayden • January 11, 2023 11:51 AM GMT
Always seems a no brainer rule for me personally. Back e/way with a bookmaker when the place % is over broke But the problem is that this doesn't happen very often these days. The 7.00 Kempton is today's best shape of race (10 runners and 4 rags) and at the moment, on RP best prices, the place market isn't overbroke even tho the win market is 110%. The key to winning in that race is finding a horse that is value in the win market, which will then be even better value in the place market. (Ignoring the exchange prices for the sake of discussion). |
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Sometimes dave it will be down to individual interpretation of what constitutes a bad e/way race.
Example looking at that 7pm race i wouldn't entertain that as a bad e/way race anyway , far too much unexposed in the field , so wouldn't expect the place to be over broke in all honesty. I use math's / shape / exposure as the triple criteria for selecting bad e/way horses so basically they need to tick three boxes. Couldn't possibly select one in the 7pm so agree with you , look for one in the win market that may improve dramatically from one run to another as unexposed beasts often do , or indeed a debutant. Good luck if you play |
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The first and Third race races @ ffos look interesting today........Endless Escape a no brainer in the first.....in the 2-30 ....going to have to back Mylesfromwicklow and Regal Blue....
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Dave,
The only ew angle i use is matched betting. In a race where a bookmaker is say offering four places, back with them ew Then win lay and place lay with an exchange Only do this where prices are quite close. This will then give you a positive ev bet. |
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If you're "hitting the bar" most times is there an argument for backing place only? I suppose working out one's stats may give an insight (Now where's that flak jacket?)
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Each way betting was my main way of making money betting for decades but those days are gone (the big books have killed them off) and I don't think I've done an each way bet for around 15 years.
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Each Way thieves in clover - first two races at Ffos Las
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Yes TM, but when those EW thieves login to their accounts this evening....."Following a review of your account by our trading team, we regret to inform you that whilst our online service remains available to you...........
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Indeed WP - but if the day has the "right look" about it (once in a Blue Moon) you can have a wander round a few shops and get the girl behind the counter to momentarily stop watching Love Island on her phone.
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Fair point TM. A little leg work and getting a little creative can certainly help you you pick up a nice wage for the week.
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