Andrews 2023 Lay Thread

S.S Road 

I hope that pays for your weekend.

WD Andrew

You are on fire, Horizon was the icing on the cake.

well done Andrew, looks like dinner is on you, enjoy

WD again

Lovely weekend at Longchamp , posted a winning thread including a good priced winner and reached the SF of the new competition 

Take some topping that for a weekend , great stuff 

WD all winners

wd andrew..hope you're drinking from a french furry cup later.

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always and i know you will understand me not responding last night. We ended up in a Lebanese restaurant, at least i think it was, a decent meal whatever the nationality. For 'cabaret' we witnessed a small group on a nearby table that were celebrating a birthday and the restaurant provided a sword to cut the cake with.

We had planned to go to an Argentinian steak restaurant in the Latin Quarter i know, but couldn't get a table, bad planning by yours truly who didn't book a table based on previous visits. Not a big deal, we found a place not so far away and it turned out well.

A good day at Longchamp, only 3 of us went, Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet, the other 3 wanted to be tourists, but will join us this afternoon.

After reviewing the card before breakfast i thought if i made a profit it would be good, there was only one runner i really thought was a bet, but i ended up well in front on the day after a poor start. Apologies for the after-timing, but the 2 others can vouch for my bets (all PMU odds).

1.23 Shembala 66/10 3rd
1.58 Ghadah 9/2 3rd
1.33 Emily Dickenson 9/5 (last, didn't stay)
2.15 Agile 115/10 Won
2.58 Islandinthesky 7/10 Won
3.33 Sea Silk Road 76/10 Won
4.08 Kilocheo 43/1 9th (fun bet)
4.43 Horizon Dore 7/10 Won

We didn't stay for the last couple if races. Local Beer not cheap at 10 euros, but not much more than Cheltenham festival really. A reasonable crowd and no problem whatsoever queuing for bets and drink. Weather was pleasant, i think around 22c, but it felt warmer, although i was wearing a suit. Official going was 'bon souple 3.3' but we all thought it was close to good and race winning times support this.

A really nice afternoon and life is not always about money or winning bets, good company, a few beers and a lot of banter rounded off by a great and late evening.

On to this afternoon, but i will keep my selections summary short as we're all meeting up at 09.30 for a breakfast/brunch in the Charles De Gaulle Etoile area, close to the Arc De Triomphe monument. We're staying in the La Defense area as i often do for Longchamp, i like it and it's conveniently close to the RER station and a short trip to the centre.

Readers of this thread will know i have AP bets on a couple of runners, Feed The Flame (9/1) and Mr Hollywood (50/1 EW to a tenner and BF odds of 147/1 win for a few buttons). The latter wins over 1K, but i have to be honest i don't hold out too much hope, but i think he will run better than his current odds may suggest. He beat Fantastic Moon by 7.5L in München 3 runs ago, although he was subsequently beaten 2.25L by FM in the German Derby. I saw the latter when i went to the same course to back Charlie Applebys Nations Pride in July and didn't think he was a potential Arc winner. Forget Feed The Flame's run in the Prix Neil, the pace was a farce and he blew hard afterwards.

I will not be backing him again, or anything else in the race, but i am a 2 and 3/TBP player of the AOB trained St Leger winner Continuous.

In the opener (1.15) what older racing fans will know as the Grand Criterium, i like Beauvatier and i've put this one up on here before. A 1-1-1-1 record over 5f, 6f and 7f on 4 different courses. He didn't have a lot to beat LTO over CD, but was very heavily backed (1.7 was available on here early) to 30/100 and won easily even though the 1 length may not suggest it. An equivalent BHA rating of 107 that i feel should be higher, but i'm an engineer, not a handicapper. He's on a par with Vandeek using collateral form lines, giving 4lb and a beating to the filly Ramatoulle back in May. There is one point to consider though, all wins have with give.

In the Arab World Cup (2.25) Al Ghadeer looks almost a good thing, but i don't lump on in these races, simply as i'm not overly familiar with the form.

In the Prix L'Abbaye (4.25) i think the draw is a major concern for Highfield Princess even if most of the pace is with her. A wonderful and very genuine mare, but i am a layer. I may have a small win bet on the Clive Cox trained Kerdos currently around 10/1.

In the Prix De l'Opera i have to back one of my 2 favourite French fillies, Blue Rose Cen, who doesn't owe me anything, even after a loss at Goodwood. I've backed her in her 5 previous wins, all odds against bar one. Having said this, the stake will not be significant.

My last bet will be Kinross (5.00) in the Prix De La Foret, where i think Frankie will get a standing ovation from an often very supportive Longchamp crowd.

I can't wait

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Changing topic, one of the group, Mr Spreadsheet gained promotion to the Premiership in the naps competition yesterday (WD, Mr S). I haven't seen the table yet, but did the poster CagliarG do any good ? No real interest, just asking for a friend.

G/L  ANDREW

Thanks for the write up Andrew. I have to say I really fancy Feed the Flame in the Arc. My florin is on.

Happy to oblige Ikeaman.

You - 3 months in profit out of 13 months - MINUS £32.44.
Me - 6 months in profit out of 11 months - Plus £11.74.

August a try with outsiders, sh hd and neck difference in score being 20 points better, what is your excuse for multiple beaten long odds on and 7+ days of no selection?

HTH and shame you feel so paranoid about your insecurity and Sociopathic tendencies!!

No bet in race but crikey what a turn of foot that was , looked like Peintre Celebre reincarnated


Good luck chaps 

After that performance i'm guessing at this moment Andrew will be scampering to get a selfie with his darling of the turf 


Well done 

andrews done the lot

Toby finished -26pts last week i've just noticed in the daily comp out of 30 selections

still +864 lsp  (in ricardo's shop )

Well done rico, "Just noticed" last week was actually yesterday!! Happens when selecting outsiders but at least minus 26 still leaves me plus £11.74 as opposed to Ikeaman minus £32.46 not including this thread!!

HTH as wouldn't want Ikea not to know the facts.

Good afteroon Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always.

My first since Sunday, so a summary of our Longchamp day. Only 3 of the group went on Saturday, others preferred sightseeing, but all 6 on the Sunday. A beautiful day, around 24c, too hot for a suit (no tie) and even hotter on Monday at 28c.

We left the La Defense hotel and took the short RER train trip to Charles De Gaulle Etoile (Arc De Triomphe monument). A decent breakfast sitting outside on the Champs Elysees that wasn't so expensive at 17.5 euros considering where we were, and it included egg/bacon and a fruit salad bowl. Took the free Navette shuttle bus (not far away) arrived at the course around 13.30 and a couple in the group dropped off their bags there (only 2 euros) to save time as they were leaving late Sunday. 

A decent crowd, especially in the garden area and standing in the stands wasn't any worse than a decent Ascot meeting.

The less mentioned about 'bon souple' going the better, on Saturday it was good at least and Sunday good to firm. A multi-million-euro industry, so why can't the worlds racing authorities get together and standardise going reporting, it's mind boggling how soft could be in the description on either day. Maybe i should put my engineering head on and patent a device for accurate going readings.

Beer at 10 euros a pop not cheap, but same price as the previous day. Some beautiful women in attendance.

My bets

13.15 Backed Beauvatier 3rd
13.50 No bet
14.25 Backed Al Ghadeer Won
3.05   No bet, but AP on Feed The Flame and buttons on Blue Rose Cen and My Hollywood. Layed Continuous in the 2/TBP and 3/TBP markets and ran better than i expected in 5th
3.50   Blue Rose Cen (and on Betfair a few days earlier) Won
4.25   Layed Highfield Princess who won and backed Kerdos (small) Lost
5.00   Backed Kinross 2nd

Max stake of the day was 250 euros, lowest was 10 euros. Biggest loss was almost £160 laying Highfield Princess.

My PL on the day was a low figure profit if include the 3 x Betfair bets, but not if i include the AP 100 euros + buttons i lost on the Arc. Saturday was a very good day with winners at 115/10 and 76/10 plus the couple of shorties at 7/10 (ref previous post).

One to take out of the meeting is Horizon Dore.

A couple of us stayed for the after-racing party, but i left about 20.00 and met up with another to finish off at Corcoran's Irish Bar in La Defense, then on to a smaller local place.

A fantastic weekend with great company, decent food, a few beers and plenty of laughs. I returned to München Monday night and had a free day on the Tuesday (German Unification Day) to recover. For those that have never been, i can recommend it.

I'm off to Stockholm this evening (Lufthansa permitting) staying at Arlanda overnight and down to my adopted home, Linköping tomorrow morning for a couple of days. October is a manic month from a travelling perspective as i'm seriously thinking of going to Newmarket for the Dewhurst on Saturday (hoping Ed Thompson can give me a price on City Of Troy) and there is Ascot the week after. No flights booked yet though.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.

Hayden

I didn't get a selfie, but one of the guys took a superb side on close-up photo of Blue Rose Cen that i printed out for my office wall. I can't remember the last time i was so animated when i could see she was going to win, but it was probably as a kid with a first train set; to be honest i was more excited than i was at Cheltenham when Constitution Hill jumped the last flight. I love the filly (in a sporting sense) and if there was one horse i really want to win over the 2-day meeting, it was her. Just a pity i didn't lump on as much as i did at Goodwood, but she doesn't owe me anything. The weekend was not primarily about money anyway, but the buzz of Paris/Longchamp with friends.

Steve

No, but i would have had a losing day if Blue Rose Cen was beaten. After she won i didn't need to back Kinross as initially intended.

Great  post as usual . Out of academic interest, have you got the running "official lays" P&L from 1 Jan this year please?

Manoleeds

Thank you.

Funny you should mention this, a few days ago i was wondering if i should get back to posting them again, it was the original intent of the thread since April 2018 after all.

I hit a slump earlier in the Spring (hence a loss to date this year) but i can scroll back and post the PL; give me a couple of days as i'm back in Sweden this weekend. Maybe your post is the spur i need to get posting the lays again.

Andrew,

You said;
I will not be backing him again, or anything else in the race, but i am a 2 and 3/TBP player of the AOB trained St Leger winner Continuous.

I read this quickly (scanning) and only saw i am a 2 and 3/TBP player of the AOB trained St Leger winner Continuous and thought it was a back (didn't notice or anything else in the race). Just something to be wary of (I didn't back it).

Your description of the Longchamp meeting (and social meet-up) sounds so good, I might just try and join you guys next year (bit of a trek from the north of England (or fly) though). Will see what my partner says; maybe a whole week in France depending on when half-term is (she speaks French).

PHS

I totally understand why you would think Continuous was a back (i wasn't aware of the player instead of layer until you mentioned it) but in mitigation I will not be backing him again, or anything else in the race, but i am a 2 and 3/TBP player of the AOB trained St Leger winner Continuous. and a couple of posters were with me. Mind you, it doesn't look good.

Changing topic, as mentioned in my earlier post, i can really recommend the Longchamp Arc weekend, or any meeting there come to that. I go to the trials meeting, 20 euros, sit where you want, salons are never crowded and same for the stand.

I will not be backing him again, or anything else in the race, but i am a 2 and 3/TBP player of the AOB trained St Leger winner Continuous.

Have to admit not seeing the letter p either and took it as an obvious lay until reading the P.H.S response , i think looking back and taking the sentence in context it really does seem a lay anyway , due to the 2 pl mentioned which i couldn't see being a play and also would have been contradictory after the earlier part of the sentence stating " backing him again or anything else in the race "

Anyway , glad the weekend went well and enjoyed by all.


Good luck today everyone 

Andrew.in.Sweden06 Oct 23 12:21Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 6,691 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Maybe your post is the spur i need to get posting the lays again.

Stick to backing imo. People say laying and backing are 2 sides of the same coin, which purely from a mathematical point of view is true. i.e. laying at 5/2 is the same as backing at 2/5 etc. However, they are two completely different mind-sets and skills imo. Always backing at odds-on pre-race (laying at about 5/2 or shorter) is a tricky old game in many ways and also a tough one to stake correctly imo.

Always enjoy reading your thoughts but from a laying perspective, you rarely make a compelling case (or one compelling enough that it would convince me anyway). Some people are good at spotting strengths, others are good at spotting weakness - there is a relationship between those two skills for sure - but they are still 2 very different skills imo. Most bookmakers are hopeless tipsters.

I can't be 4rsed to work back through the thread - but I'd guess your backing results outperform your laying. GL.

Oct 7, 2023 -- 5:12AM, The Management wrote:

Andrew.in.Sweden06 Oct 23 12:21Joined: 22 Apr 19 | Topic/replies: 6,691 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blogMaybe your post is the spur i need to get posting the lays again.Stick to backing imo. People say laying and backing are 2 sides of the same coin, which purely from a mathematical point of view is true. i.e. laying at 5/2 is the same as backing at 2/5 etc. However, they are two completely different mind-sets and skills imo. Always backing at odds-on pre-race (laying at about 5/2 or shorter) is a tricky old game in many ways and also a tough one to stake correctly imo. Always enjoy reading your thoughts but from a laying perspective, you rarely make a compelling case (or one compelling enough that it would convince me anyway). Some people are good at spotting strengths, others are good at spotting weakness - there is a relationship between those two skills for sure - but they are still 2 very different skills imo. Most bookmakers are hopeless tipsters.I can't be 4rsed to work back through the thread - but I'd guess your backing results outperform your laying. GL.

Good post this but fails to take into account that when Andrew first started the threads after recuperating he did well when able to dedicate more time to picking the lays.

Maybe so PHS - but I think you have to go back to 2018 for a decent laying profit (after commission). As per Andrew's own opening post on this thread: "Looking at my profit levels, if i was a racehorse, i would be labelled 'regressing'"

I can't reiterate enough, that his threads are a refreshing tonic in what is sadly these days a sea of detritus - but he is "a backer" (imo). Getting behind and/or recovering from odds-on bets (i.e. 5/2 or 2/1 lays) is tough at best, at worst it's a minefield of mental torture (imo).

Good afternoon Guys and greetings from a bright and sunny Stockholm, albeit cool enough at only 7c.

Stayed in Arlanda overnight as planned, but a nice stroll in the city and now a coffee before taking the express train to Linköping soon.

I haven't looked at the RP in detail, but what i have seen appears to be decent cards, although there wasn't anything that jumped off the page. A short post for now, but maybe more later.

One i will be backing when the liquidity improves is Seven Sisters in the G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte at Chantilly (1.50) with several GB based entries in opposition. Finished 3rd in the Mill Reef at Newbury, but may have been a little unlucky after having to be switched twice and was only beaten 0.5L. I didn't back him in the race, i actually put up Mister Sketch as a lay (2nd) but i made a mental note that he may be worth a bet next time out. After winning a trio of 'ordinary' races, he finished 3d in the Listed Champion 2 year old stakes at Ripon and the winner went on to be runner-up behind Vandeek in the Middle Park. In his penultimate run, again he may have been a little unlucky to be beaten a head in the G3 Sirenia stakes. I think he has the Karl Burke runner to beat, but at 7/2 with the books i think he could be a bet.

Thanks for the posts Hayden, PHS and TM.

Valid points made by PHS/TM and i also have no idea what the PL would be if included backs, but i'm honest enough to say a loss considering all the handicap outsiders i often put up at weekends. Given the choice, i prefer laying and any lump on back bet is always going to be a shortie in a group race anyway.

Since April 2018 when i started these lay threads that have morphed into backs and lays in the previous couple of years or so, my circumstances are completely different today, i was convalescing for 5 weeks (it was during this free time i had the idea) and my workload in the Saab office over the previous zillion years was nowhere near the levels of today, not that i'm complaining, i invoice companies by the hour. Nor do i use this as an excuse, i may love my work, but i also like looking at race-cards.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

TM

Correct, it's soul destroying when you get on a run of lays that win and it takes a much longer run to get back into profit of course. I hit one such run earlier in the year (and last year) this is probably why i veered from the original thread format.

Soul destroying, that was the very phrase I was looking for Andrew!

Alan (sadly missed) wrote some great stuff (very sensible) in his books about prices (imo) but the advent of exchanges kind of made those views redundant (purely in a mathematical sense) because backing a 1.01 at 1.03 is some of the best (pre-event) value you will ever get, as is laying a 10,000 poke at 1000. But that's just from the maths perspective.
The reality of old school pre-event backing is that you also have to retain your sanity when things go horribly wrong - and at those extreme prices, that's a tough ask for most. In that respect everything Alan wrote stands the test of time (imo) and even laying at about 5/2 (betting at 2/5) is a tough ask if/when it goes a bit wrong. GL.

One i will be backing when the liquidity improves is Seven Sisters in the G2 Criterium de Maisons-Laffitte at Chantilly (1.50) with several GB based entries in opposition. Finished 3rd in the Mill Reef at Newbury, but may have been a little unlucky after having to be switched twice and was only beaten 0.5L.

Couldn't find this in the list of runners for the 13:50 Cha, so didn't back it.

PHS

This is my new system, post a selection that confuses everyone, then claim it as a NR or winner

I must be losing it, it was meant to read Seven Questions (3rd @ 3/1 Chantilly 1.50) who ran OK, had every chance, but was simply not good enough. I had an Aunty that lived in Islington back in time and if i remember correctly, there is a Seven Sisters road there, so maybe i was thinking of her subconsciously.

Good morning Guys,

My last day in the aerospace capital of Scandinavia (Linköping) before returning to München tonight, a short trip this month, but simply due to work commitments.

Only a couple of GB meetings with 16 races in total, but quite competitive fields in many, even allowing for a few shorties that may not win anyway. Group class racing in various countries including Germany, Italy, USA and Canada with the latter venue of the G1 International stakes. This race used to attract some decent quality back in time, the roll call of winners includes Secretariat, Dahlia and Youth to name just a few, although it has lost a little of its bygone era lustre this century. For racing trivia enthusiasts and pub quizzers the ex-AOB trained Joshua Tree certainly deserves a mention as he won the race 3 times in 4 years with different owners, trainers and jockeys, some stat for a high profile(ish) race.

Charlie Appleby is represented by the 4 year old Nations Pride in the race tonight (22.39) one i put up on here and went to see/back at München (Riem) in July when he won the G1 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen beating Fantastic Moon (German entry in the Arc). I thought we was impressive, making the running and winning easier than 3L mentioned in the form line, William Buick easing him close home. 10f furlongs is clearly his best trip with a record of 1-1-1-2-1-1 at 5 different tracks on various degrees of going. Of course his odds will reflect this, but 8/11 with Bet365 may be bettered on here later. I think he will win.

Readers know i follow French and German racing, albeit pattern class, i wouldn't be any use in handicaps. Cologne stages a G3 for 2 year olds, but none of them jump off the page; the likely favourite Maigret is ridden by Jack Mitchell, his only mount until next Thursday so he has time to go sightseeing in a beautiful city later. Andrasch Starke rode Maigret when winning, but is stable jockey to Markus Klug and down to ride Borna. I wonder if connections know their horse is named after a disease for animals, including horses.

On to domestic horse racing The Bomber Liston is not high on the list of JPM quality horses and after a few runs chasing with little evidence he could win over fences reverts to hurdles at Uttoxeter (3.45) in the hope of a revival of form. After winning a CD maiden hurdle by 10L a year ago and beaten a nose in a class 3 handicap next time out (albeit receiving 9 lb) connections may have expected he would improve and go on to better class, but this has not been the case to date. Apart from a half-decent run in a class 2 handicap over 21f on soft at Kempton, he hasn't shown much. His ratings over hurdles range between 122-124. Wind surgery for a 2nd time didn't improve him, although to be fair the 3 subsequent runs were over fences. Down to 117 this afternoon, the handicapper gives him a chance, but he's one paced and best runs have been over shorter. Odd breeding, the dams-sire was a sprinter winning a trio of races over 6f, although this is insignificant. The likely favourite and could be well handicapped, but it's an open race where all 4 higher rated rivals can win, but i don't think he will and i am a layer.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Happysandwich, i knew what your selection would be before you posted it, WD


Andrew,

Me, Frankie, and Inspiral have been a little win treble since Newmarket October 8th, 2021.

Good luck laying The Bomber Liston Andrew, i leave JPMs horses well alone myself.

Good call Andrew, one of first beaten.

TBF stewarts he was due one, the only thread that makes a profit out of 7 losers and one winner[:cool.

Just an update as ikea did ask, L 5/6, W 4/7, L 5/6, L 5/2, L 5/6, L 8/15, similar here bar 1 4/1 winner tbf though no odds on as always!!

Good afternoon Guys from a Grey and dismal looking Heathrow.

My first post since Sunday where i had 2 selections, a back and a lay, both paying out.The Bomber Liston drifted on-course form 9/4f to 11/4f and although never far away in the race, never really looked like winning after being pushed along before the 3rd last. Nations Pride looked good on paper in what was essentially a weak G1 at Woodbine, and 8/11 with B365 was a gift in the morning (assuming you could get on). Heavily backed on course to an SP of 2/5f he won really cosily as he was entitled to.

Arrived in GB this morning, my usual KLM route from München via Schiphol and i'm staying at the T4 Premier Inn, a very convenient short walk from the terminal. Off to Newmarket tomorrow, a decent card, 4 group races including the Dewhurst, a listed and the Cesarewitch handicap. If the going doesn't get too soft permits, i may get to see the best 2 year old in Europe.

When i looked at the days cards last night, i didn't fancy much at all, but the one i did, Mistral Star is now a NR although i doubt it's because of the ground. I do have another one that i will back small, the well bred, Jeff Smith owned 2 year old Sea The Fire who runs in the Fillies mile at Newmarket (4.10). I did some consultancy work for him when i lived in England, but i doubt he remembers me. He looks to have another potential half-decent filly for his breeding operation in years to come, but prior to this i think she will run a good race this afternoon. Won a maiden on debut and the form is working out with the 2nd and 3rd winning since, but she improved significantly next time out in the 8f, G2 May Hill at Doncaster finishing 2nd behind a more experienced rival. Has to improve again, but this is almost a given and soft will not be an issue. Currently trading around 7.4 and 2.3 for 3/TBP to cover the win stake.

Good Boy Bobby has been well backed in the opener at Chepstow (1.35) presumably due to what could be a decent handicap mark and form of the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable. Hasn't won since December 2021, hence the falling mark, but this is a half-decent field for a veterans chase and his best form is on soft/heavy (has won on good to soft). 15/8 is short enough and i'm a layer.

I've posted quite a lot of photos on my gallery recently, some going back to Arc trials day at Longchamp in September, a few at Wiesn (München Oktoberfest) and quite a few at the Arc meeting earlier this month.

Good luck and have a nice Friday.

Stewarts Rise

Thank you. I wish they were all that easy.

good afternoon Andrew, surprised you are not keeping the faith with Ylang Ylang, think the run in the Rockfel showed 1 mile on soft would suit her well, i have backed her at 5/1.

hope you enjoy your trip and you get to see City Of Troy running.

Afternoon Ashleigh

Thanks. I haven't given up on Ylang Ylang, she's one of my fun 2024 AP Guineas bets (also doubled with COT) as you know and i think she will run well, i just kept going back to Sea The Fire at a slightly better price. My bet today is small anyway, good luck with yours.

As for COT, he was my primary reason for coming over and i've already backed him, but a lot of rain has fallen in the past couple of days that wouldn't be ideal. I still think he runs, Newmarket drains well and is exposed to wind, so fingers crossed. I'm looking forward to the race, but i want to see the horse and ground tomorrow to determine if i have a few bob on.

Week 41

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwpOM0chTzuOlSQ-mY0jLuxfVWUpxQE_9bbFgLu1dfc/edit?pli=1#gid=1383066304

Unlucky with GLB,I am sure he touched 999/1 in running. Enjoy your weekend.

Ashleigh

VWD on the winner, a good race. I thought Sea The Fire had it at one stage, but i got the place and the winner is good for my AP bets.

Second again

7L down at the last, but fair play to catch the leader who was conceding 18 lb.

Happysandwich

WD looking good.

Good morning Guys,

2 selections yesterday, a lay of Good Boy Bobby (9/4f) in the afternoons opener, 7L down at the last, but came with a strong run to get up and reward IR backers at 999/1. Unfortunately, i wasn't one of them, i didn't even see the race anyway so i'm not aware how much was matched. My EW selection See The Fire was well backed (6/1 > 4/1) and at one stage i thought a win was on the cards, but she was green, edged left and held in a close finish for 3rd, covering the win stake. The winner Ylang Ylang made my AP 2024 Guineas bets with City of Troy (10/1 and 16/1 respectively) look better, but there's a long way to go, and the Sportsbook cash-out is laughable.

My Saturday was going to be all about the Dewhurst (2.00) and a potential star City Of Troy, but rain over the past few days and AOB's headline comment in the RP isn't a positive, in fact there were moments last night when i considered if it was worth travelling up to Newmarket from my hotel at Heathrow. On decent ground i made him almost a good thing and was planning a decent bet apart from those i already have AP, even good to soft would have been OK, but softer after more overnight rain is a concern. I appreciate AOB needs to give him another run for experience and there's only the Futurity left so i doubt he will be a NR. It could be he's got the class to win even on unsuitable ground, just as Frankel had in the champion stakes at Ascot and the dam won the fillies mile on soft, so it's not all bad.

I've decided to go regardless, i already have a ticket and i'm only here until tomorrow morning with no other plans. A little disappointing, but if he wins i will be happy i went. How much i bet on course will probably be decided very close to race time and at least i will be able to chat with Ed (Thompson) and Brian who i haven't seen in a while, in fact i think it was the Coroebus Guineas meeting last year.

In the Cesarewitch (4.10) the likeable and consistent filly Grand Providence will need to be half-decent handicapper to win, but she just might be. Prior to start of this century 3 year olds had a reasonable winning strike rate, but since 2000 only one has, the gelding Darley Sun and i'm not going to go back and check the last filly to do so. Never out of the frame in 8 runs, a CD winner, going may not be an issue, but 4 lb out of the handicapper. Ran well to win the trial, i think she's a small win and 5/TBP bet around odds of 16/3+ on here. Mind you, these typical Heritage handicaps has made Denise Coates incredibly rich, so not my preferred betting medium by a long way.

I will be laying Universal Folly at Hexham (2.45) who has been mopping up small field races recently receiving weight from main rivals, it's a tightly knit handicap with only the outsider who can be ignored. Stepping back in trip to 20f, up 4 lb and although he has won on soft, it will be on the heavy side this afternoon that may not be ideal based on a couple of previous runs on the surface.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

The real deal!

Andrew, well worth your trip to see that performance.

I know it's not possible but could you put into words what it was like to see that live please.

Week 42

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UwpOM0chTzuOlSQ-mY0jLuxfVWUpxQE_9bbFgLu1dfc/edit?pli=1#gid=157537190

Just waiting for the car crash now.

2023
WEEK 42
	Horse Name	Position	Odds	BFSP	Lost	Won	No Bets
Sunday 15th Oct
Naas 2:15	Megarry	8th	17/2	11.50			No Bet
Naas 2:50	Water Nymph	13th	33/1	46.00			No Bet
Naas 3:25	Astar	13th	28/1	44.90			No Bet
Cork 4:20	Clever Currency	2nd	9/2	6.60			No Bet
Naas 4:35	Alfalfa	3rd	7/4	2.94		£10.00
Cork 4:55	Typical Thomas	1st	13/2	8.40			No Bet
Monday 16th Oct
Gowran Park 1:20	Wrist Art	3rd	2/1	3.29		£10.00
Gowran Park 2:20	Malbay Madness	5th	5/1	8.80			No Bet
Musselburgh 4:10	Mubhijah	4th	13/8	2.94		£10.00
Windsor 4:15	Liseo	4th	14/1	20.00			No Bet
Windsor 4:15	Alpha Female	7th	4/1	5.40			No Bet
Kempton 7:00	Elzaam Blue	4th	7/2	5.25		£10.00
Tuesday 17th Oct
Hereford 1:50	Parade Away	1st	1/16	1.09	(£0.90)
Hereford 4:10	Sinister Minister	6th	11/4	3.62		£10.00
Gowran Park 4:15	Manhattan Dandy	3rd	7/1	8.27			No Bet
Newcastle 5:30	Ciara Pearl	2nd	11/2	7.22			No Bet
Newcastle 7:00	Port Erin	8th	13/8	3.10		£10.00
Wednesday 18th Oct
Nottingham 3:10	Amayretta	3rd	3/1	4.98		£10.00
Thursday 19th Oct
Carlisle 2:25	Cabhfuilfungi
Carlisle 4:45	Massini Man
Chelmsford 7:30	Grand Dutchess Olga
Friday 20th Oct
Redcar 1:35	Sacred Falls
Haydock 1:55	Rogue Enforcer
Haydock 3:00	Dare To Hope
Haydock 3:00	Solray
Haydock 5:20	Billy No Mates
Saturday 21st Oct
Market Rasen 2:10	Saladam
Newton Abbot 2:15	Farnoge
Ascot 2:25	Term Of Endearment
Leopardstown 2:30	Basilah Bay
Newton Abbot 2:55	Back Yourself
Catterick 3:00	Muscika
Limerick 3:15	Iriskana
Market Rasen 3:30	Seefin
Catterick 3:40	Wen Moon
Ascot 3:45	My Prospero
Market Rasen 4:08	Courtland
Stratford 4:35	Jaminska
Stratford 5:10	Justshortofabubble
Catterick 5:30	Ebony Maw
				Weekly Totals	(£0.90)	£70.00
				Weekly P/L		£69.10
				Losing bets	1
				Winning bets	7
				No Bets	10
				Losing	Winning
	Lost	Won	Weekly P/L	Bets	Bets
Week 1	(£59.16)	£120.00	£60.84	5	12	13
Week 2	(£91.20)	£30.00	(£61.20)	6	3	14
Week 3	(£19.10)	£70.00	£50.90	2	7	12
Week 4	(£95.00)	£60.00	(£35.00)	5	6	18
Week 5	(£181.51)	£100.00	(£81.51)	8	10	24
Week 6	(£266.20)	£50.00	(£216.20)	9	5	16
Week 7	(£54.80)	£80.00	£25.20	4	8	20
Week 8	(£147.00)	£150.00	£3.00	4	15	13
Week 9	(£84.80)	£150.00	£65.20	4	15	13
Week 10	(£99.60)	£110.00	£10.40	5	11	10
Week 11	(£233.20)	£180.00	(£53.20)	10	18	43
Week 12	(£88.05)	£90.00	£1.95	4	9	21
Week 13	(£48.90)	£130.00	£81.10	4	13	18
Week 14	(£52.40)	£70.00	£17.60	3	7	29
Week 15	(£106.64)	£190.00	£83.36	6	19	32
Week 16	(£125.30)	£100.00	(£25.30)	6	10	33
Week 17	(£157.39)	£180.00	£22.61	8	18	26
Week 18	(£82.70)	£100.00	£17.30	4	10	38
Week 19	(£124.63)	£130.00	£5.37	6	13	23
Week 20	(£59.70)	£110.00	£50.30	3	11	29
Week 21	(£88.20)	£120.00	£31.80	7	12	24
Week 22	(£226.60)	£190.00	(£36.60)	15	19	31
Week 23	(£150.72)	£120.00	(£30.72)	6	12	12
Week 24	(£88.70)	£150.00	£61.30	7	15	19
Week 25	(£61.60)	£80.00	£18.40	3	8	31
Week 26	(£112.60)	£120.00	£7.40	5	12	28
Week 27	(£132.85)	£220.00	£87.15	6	22	25
Week 28	(£48.20)	£160.00	£111.80	3	16	22
Week 29	(£109.01)	£130.00	£20.99	6	16	40
Week 30	(£191.23)	£140.00	(£51.23)	3	13	18
Week 31	(£194.80)	£160.00	(£34.80)	1	6	32
Week 32	(£38.80)	£130.00	£91.20	6	12	45
Week 33	(£14.90)	£60.00	£45.10	1	6	32
Week 34	(£170.20)	£120.00	(£50.20)	6	12	45
Week 35	(£23.60)	£130.00	£106.40	2	13	16
Week 36	(£122.00)	£140.00	£18.00	5	14	17
Week 37	(£190.80)	£100.00	(£90.80)	6	10	27
Week 38	(£104.80)	£70.00	(£34.80)	4	7	28
Week 39	(£205.90)	£160.00	(£45.90)	5	16	42
Week 40	(£156.62)	£90.00	(£66.62)	6	9	23
Week 41	(£21.00)	£190.00	£169.00	1	19	26
Week 42	(£0.90)	£70.00	£69.10	1	7	10
		Overall P/L	£418.69	211	496	1,038
		Happy's Monkey	£500.00
		Running Total	£918.69
		Total selections	1,745
		Actual bets	707

Great stuff Happy , impressive 

All there to see no fudge….

Thanks

Hayden & formoftheace

Me and Mrs. H have been ‘high-fiving’ to these for over 2 years.

These are the rules
RULES
1.  Lay any horse that’s latest form is 21 at odds no bigger than BFSP 6.00 (5/1)
2.  Anything bigger than BFSP 6.00 – NO BET
3.  Two or more horses running in the same race – NO BET
4.  Lay to win a fixed amount e.g. £10

Good to see you happy happy
Still ticking over and a few caviar sarnies for Mrs H

Bit of a rollacoaster at times - start to year esp WK 6
And recently
Have you dug down at the types of races ? Codes- Flat, NH, AW ?

madhatters,

If anyone wants to know what fun betting is about Lay Saturday’s selections, that meet the above criteria, to win just £10.

Don’t have any other bets during the day whatsoever. It’s called controlled gambling.

This is the win bet I had in the division 3 comp today.

happysandwich
20 Oct 23 09:44
Joined: 06 May 10
| Topic/replies: 3,394 | Blogger: happysandwich's blog
Mereside Diva – 1:35 Redcar

Thanks Reged

Well done Happy - you are very, very clever.

P.S. Please give my regards to Hans Christian Andersen at the next AGM for fairy tale writers!

The ball sack make an appearance…..ffs

Happy might be a bit selective with his results f4rty - but there's no need for that kind of name-calling imo ffs

Did you snitch on my thread yesterday TM ?

- I'd like nothing better than to see the back of you and your relentless, mindless drivel - but I'm not a grass tvm. Also, no idea which thread you mean - you start so fecking many.

Well that would be easy just don’t fekn look ff

The thread was regarding the Coogan letter,the one getting all the bad publicity,the vomit inducing…..

I’ll leave the thread now,sorry for the invasion Andrew…..

Well done happysandwich, still waiting for that bread pudding recipe again after i lost the recipe.

Well done happy, hope you make a few quid.

I tried laying once, made 2k. Lost it all one dark evening at Wolves AW

About 15 years ago that was. I`m sat there feeling pleased with myself with a balance
of around 3k. Bored, so turn attention to a night meeting. Laid a donkey at 250 on here

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts, much appreciated as always.

My first post since last Saturday (nap selections aside) so to start a short summary of my Newmarket Dewhurst meeting trip that turned out well considering a doom and gloom weather forecast on the previous day. The day started out with a delay at Kings Cross, i guess GNR probably use the same punctuality manual as KLM as my 10.42 train was cancelled so i arrived in Cambridge later than planned and connecting trains to Newmarket are not so frequent. I decided to take a taxi and thankfully a few other passengers in the queue responded when i asked if anyone wanted to share it, we ended up as 4, only costing us a tenner each and arrival before the train would have.

As mentioned in my post, my day was going to evolve around City Of Troy, although it was a decent card. I met up with one of the guys that came to Longchamp 3 weeks ago and i also had a chat with Ed Thompson as i often do when i see him on course, i even bought him a coffee.

I noticed 3 Coolmore 'lads' walking up the stairs from the paddock although none of them acknowledged me after i  wished them luck, but i took the fact they were there as a positive (aren't all gamblers superstitious ?). Charlie Appleby was much more amenable later, just as he was when i spoke to him at the Coroebus Guineas meeting last year. The lovely Adele was there with the ITV team, but not even a glance from her (gutted).

There had been a lot of discussion in the media (and here) about the envisaged going in the previous few days, more so after the downpour on Friday evening although winning times didn't suggest it was hock deep by any means. Newmarket drains well, is exposed to wind and it was a bright sunny day on Saturday so at least moisture could evaporate. I'm certainly not an expert on going conditions, but to my eyes, it was nearer good to soft than soft.

The day started well with a £50 win bet on Ancient Wisdom at 2/1 in the opener; he looks decent and apparently he will be supplemented for the Futurity. The winning time was only 2 seconds outside slow.

Next up was COT, i had already backed him at AP (varying odds 1.6-1.66) and i had a good few quid in a London WH shop (8/13) earlier in the morning. Not my best move as the horse had drifted to over 1.8 on here later that was a surprise to me. On course the odds were generally 4/6, but he was very heavily backed before the race, in fact Sid Hooper was going 2/5 at one stage. I backed him again with Ed (8/15) that was his eventual SP.

I don't need to describe the race per se, everyone has seen it and i've watched the VR a zillion times. Impressive of course, but did he do anything that wasn't really expected ? Pre-race i told my mate i didn't think he had a lot to beat and i certainly wasn't concerned by the 2nd fav Iberian who may have been flattered LTO where Rosallion clearly didn't like the going. It wasn't exactly a Frankel Dewhurst field who was also odds-on and up against the 5lb higher rated Dream Ahead.

He doesn't have an instant acceleration, but some engine and the further he goes, the better he is and as AOB mentioned, he doesn't stop. His sectionals were good, specially the last furlong that was under 12 seconds, much faster than the 2 Godolphin colts on the same card. I can't see anything to beat him in the 2000 guineas, but i wouldn't back him at evens today (i already have 16/1 to £15) and comparisons with Frankel are ridiculous, at least today.

With COT winning it was a very good day, i won a nice few quid overall, certainly covering my weekend trip expenses and same for a couple of recent Longchamp weekends with change. I did have a couple of losers, £10 EW in the Cesarewitch and £142 laying Universal Folly at Hexham, but £50 win on Charlies Arabian Crown and his first winner almost covered it. I didn't have another bet and we left after his 3rd winner of the meeting.

Changing topic, some readers may know the poster Paul (Skinto) i don't, but Ed certainly does as they used to work together and know each other well. He mentioned details of Pauls condition (in private) but out of respect i will not publish them here except to say recovery can take time, so let's wish him well.

On to this afternoon and one i'm backing is the Andre Fabre trained Alcantor in the G1 Criterium International (Saint Cloud 1.33). Winner of 3 from 4, rated 110 (converted) and looked good winning over CD LTO. Has a bit in hand on ratings and i expect him to win, currently 5/4 so expect odds-against on here later when liquidity is better.

As i'm pushed for time, i can respond to posts and a few other snippets later this evening.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Thanks Andrew , sounds like a great weekend and nice to nick a few quid from Flash Bookie 


Good of you to update on Paul , i know everyone wishes him well with his recovery.



Best of luck today 

Thanks for the update re Skinto.

Good evening Guys,

Only a single selection yesterday (St Cloud) and a heavily backed one at that although the flood of late money didn't make it run any faster. Alcantor (4/5f from 13/8 in the morning) raced from off the pace until the straight where Sunway went to the front on the rail although the favourite was travelling well on the outer. He took it up around the 300 metre mark, went almost a length in front and looked the likely winner with the front 2 pulling clear, but all credit to Sunway as he rallied, stayed on the stronger and won by 0.5L providing David Menuisier with his first G1 win for 3 years.

Sunway was beaten 2L by Iberian in his penultimate race and the latter was trounced by City Of Troy over a week ago, adding more substance as to how decent he could be. A good day for David and jockey Oisin Murphy as they completed a group race double a couple of hours later.

I had planned to go to Ascot last weekend, but i've been travelling a lot in recent weekends, twice to Longchamp, home to Linköping and Newmarket on Dewhurst day, albeit the latter was a short trip with an early Sunday morning flight back to München. It was actually nice to get up in the morning at a sensible hour on Saturday and look forward to a relaxing day watching ITV racing and football in Kennedys Sportsbar. My next trip home to Sweden is November 10th for a 4 days weekend, but from a racing perspective i doubt i will be in GB until the Tingle Creek meeting, one i particularly like and have seen a few.

Changing topic, a few posters will know the Tattersalls HIT sales started today (spread over 4 days) and i mention this for good reason. A few of my WhatsApp group (including a couple of posters) recently joined forces with an existing syndicate and the plan is to purchase a horse this week. We already have a trainer based in the south of England, a budget to work with and a short list of 'interests' including one that was sold today, albeit beyond our range. Of course it may not come to fruition, and it's certainly not an investment by any means, but we all love the game, go racing often enough (the others more than me) and i'm really hoping it works out, but let's see. I'm in email contact with Alan and he has been a source of advice. I will post an update if/when i have anything constructive.

PHS

Being at Newmarket to watch City Of Troy strut his stuff was a day to remember and not only for financial reasons. I mentioned to my mate pre-race that i wanted him to win, but i wanted him to do it impressively so we had something to look forward to in 2024. He didn't disappoint.

Hayden/Feltfair

No worries and i'm sure you understand i didn't want to give details.

As for taking money off Ed, it's nice taking it off any bookmaker but he's one of my lucky ones.

Happysandwich

WD, keep up the Hi-5's, i never thought you would get this far.

Shane

Ouch, those sort of odds take a lot of winning back.

For anyone that's interested, a link to the HIT sale over the next 4 days

https://secure.tattersalls.com/4DCGI/Sale/Live?site=NMT

Good evening Guys,

A busy week and my first post since Monday, part of which is copied below in italics.

Changing topic, a few posters will know the Tattersalls HIT sales started today (spread over 4 days) and i mention this for good reason. A few of my WhatsApp group (including a couple of posters) recently joined forces with an existing syndicate and the plan is to purchase a horse this week. We already have a trainer based in the south of England, a budget to work with and a short list of 'interests' including one that was sold today, albeit beyond our range. Of course it may not come to fruition, and it's certainly not an investment by any means, but we all love the game, go racing often enough (the others more than me) and i'm really hoping it works out, but let's see. I'm in email contact with Alan and he has been a source of advice. I will post an update if/when i have anything constructive.

The reason for reposting is the plan to purchase a horse at the recent Newmarket HIT sales came to fruition on Thursday.

The idea started several months ago when several of my WhatsApp group (including the BF posters Lucky Luciano and Mr Spreadsheet) and a few members of an existing syndicate, Fellowship Racing, who we know and go racing with, decided it would be good to get together after they sold their winning filly earlier this year. I was fortunate to be invited to see her run at Kempton where i had lunch with a couple of the owners and George Baker the trainer, the only time i have ever been to an AW course in GB. Sods law she was 2nd that afternoon, but won next time out.

We agreed on a sale price budget that suited everyone, the % splits between us and contacted Daniel and Claire Klüber who we wanted to train for us. Once the HIT catalogue was published, a couple of the group made a lot of effort, scrutinising well over 1700 lots, eventually ending up with a short list of 30+ we thought would be within our budget during the 5 days. Daniel and Claire were at the viewing/sales and were extremely helpful with advice that proved to be invaluable. 

We ended up buying (via Kübler Racing) Lot 1219, the ex-Richard Fahey trained, lightly raced (4 runs) 2 year old Salamanca Lad, winner of his penultimate run. Sired by group race sprint winner Profitable, out of an unraced Sea The Stars dam (2nd foal) bred by Michael Buckley, although i can't comment if it's 'the' MB, someone may know.

He was a 75,000 guineas yearling in 2022, but we got him for much less than than this, and well under our budget. We have a new WhatsApp group in his name that already has feedback and photos from Daniel and Claire. The stable had an open day today and there is another next Wednesday; i know at least a couple of our group were there today.

The horse will run in Fellowship Racing silks, under joint ownership of 'Fellowship and Diskovery' (the stable in-house partnership). I have a 10% share. I don't want to publish stable feedback here, but it's certainly positive and if anyone is interested, i think there are a few shares left. I will put several photos in my profile 'Photo Gallery' later.

I doubt he will be running in 2023, but we are really looking forward to next year, although i may not be able to get to see him every time he runs, specially if it's midweek as i will almost certainly still be working in Germany in 2024.

Good luck and have a nice evening all.

The Kubler's a great choice; obviously very savvy and hi-tech. I wish you all success with SL

Good luck with that AIS

The sale price is available on the internet

GL AIS
Should get a decent bit of fun at that price

Good luck with Salamanca Lad Andrew. Sure to be plenty of fun.

Good Luck Andrew, you have come on a fair way from running those " dodgepots" at Slough.

Andrew, good luck with your purchase, hope he is a fraction as good as the best recent purchase from the Horses in Training Sale with Astro King.

Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the supportive posts, the group are really looking forward to going racing with Salamanca Lad, most of us as first time owners, albeit without any great expectations of course. If we are lucky enough to see him win it will be a bonus, but just the buzz of being on course will be worth it, and who knows, maybe an interview with the lovely Adele.

It's certainly not an investment, but limited financial outlay and further opportunities to meet up on occasion, just as we do several times a year now, in fact most of us that went to Longchamp a few weeks ago have a share. One of the team gave positive feedback from the Kübler stable open day yesterday and the consensus was Daniel and Claire came across as very friendly and approachable.

A relaxing day yesterday with ITV racing (Opening Show was poor) and after watching Ancient Wisdom win the Futurity i'm even more convinced City Of Troy wins at Newmarket next May, in fact i don't think Charlies will run there, going to France for softer going instead.

On to racing this afternoon, a half-decent card at Aintree supported by average Sunday meetings at Wincanton and Galway. There's also the G1 Prix Royal Oak (French St Leger) at Longchamp, but rest of the card consists of 6 handicaps and an ordinary stakes race.

My bets will be few, but one i've already backed is the Dan Skelton trained Pembroke in the novice chase (Aintree 3.45) who doesn't appear to have a lot to beat and will come on for his debut run over fences at Uttoxeter LTO. Conceding 11lb and upwards to the field, but with a clear round i feel he can beat Chapel Green who is 3lb 'wrong'.

A tricky card at Wincanton, but i will be laying Killer Kane (3.29). He usually needs a run after a break and all 4 wins were in February/March with good in the going description, so maybe he's a Spring horse. A trappy handicap and he's high enough in the weights off 132. Currently odds of 3.0.

At Longchamp, i will have a small win/place bet on Double Major in the big race (2.50) currently trading at 8.80. I saw this one at the last meeting when he won the G2 Prix Chaudenay over a similar trip. A very consistent 3 year old, only once out of the placings in 8 runs, winning 3 and receives 8 lbs from the field (bar one). A converted rating of 109 puts him close to the likely favourite Tashkhan (111) who travels over from North Yorkshire, but this one had a hard race off top weight in the Cesarewitch.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Mr Combustible/Madhatters/Ashleigh

12K guineas + VAT that could be a bargain, let's see.

I think connections paid 35K for Astro King, improved from 99 to 112 after leaving Stoute and winning almost 200K in the process. The stuff of dreams.

If Salamanca Lad does win a race, i will be much more animated than i was in Paris when the filly Blue Rose Cen won a few times.

Glasgow

@ dodgepots. There were certainly a few of those at Slough and Reading, but the evening my first dog Claremont Point won a mid-card grade, i was euphoric and felt i had won the Greyhound Derby, i have no doubt all owners feel the same the first time. They were really good years, i was a regular to watch mine run at the 2 tracks, also White City and Wembley, but i lost interest when i left GB. Sadly the game has gone, i wouldn't have a clue these days.

I would encourage anyone who can afford it to get involved if they can. It's a completely different experience going racing as an owner, however small your share is.
There are many value for money syndicates out there. Ursa major for example do 2 1/2 % shares.
Slainte Mhath cost me under £400 for my 10% share and I pay £140 a month for training expenses. She has run 24 times, won 5 and been placed 11 times, winning £30k.
I've been on course to see her run 23 times and been to Katie's yard on 6 occasions. Been a bit spoilt but we have had an amazing experience for the money paid.

Best of luck with yours Andrew, life is never dull and it can be a bit ofca roller coaster ride. You kwarn quick the the bad days make the good ones even better.

Katie just got one from the Kubler yard, a filly called Moondial

well done Andrew with Double Major, that was some performance on the ground from a 3yr old.

Morning Andrew et al

If Salamanca Lad does win a race, i will be much more animated than i was in Paris when the filly Blue Rose Cen won a few times.

I didn't know this was possible

Well done yesterday with your selections. Good luck today everyone

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts.

My first post since last Sunday that turned out to be profitable afternoon with the well backed Double Major winning impressively at Longchamp (8.80 on here when i posted) and the lay selection, Killer Kane (5/2f) finishing last of 5 that completed the course. Pembroke was a disappointing favourite (5/4) didn't jump well and looked beaten some way from home behind a very easy winner who could be worth following.

Typical Sunday cards in GB although there is a G3 in Ireland. Charlie Johnston sends a couple of runners across the channel to Deauville for their listed races and i will be going to München (Riem) for the G1 Preis von Bayern (1.15) a race Alpinista won in 2021 before going on to the Arc the following year. I was at both venues, but only backed her in the former.

Charlie Appleby's Rebel's Romance has been withdrawn, possibly due to the going as it's been raining a fair bit in the past week, but even when he was in the field, i fancied the French trained Junko. Relatively lightly raced, winner of 5 from 12 and soft going will certainly not be an issue for this runner. Finished 3rd behind Iresine at Longchamp 3 weeks ago over a furlong shorter, but was staying on well at the finish. Prior to this won a 12.5f G3 at Deauville easily and this form has been franked by the 3rd and 4th both winning group 3's since. Prior to this had been running in top grade against the likes of Westover, Anmaat and Lord North.

A small field of 4, but i feel the race only concerns a couple with the German 5 year old mare India the danger. She won the G1 Preis von Europa at Cologne in September, but this form is probably not good enough to beat Jonko as his best, even with a 3lb sex allowance and a consistent profile. The race could be tactical with no real pace in the field, although i suspect Best Of Lips will probably go off in front. Unfortunately regular jockey Maxime Guyon is not available (riding in Santa Anita yesterday) but the replacement who i'm not even going to try and pronounce is capable enough.

The betting favours Jonko at the moment, 5/4 and 13/8 respectively, but i'm hoping the locals will support their runner just as they did during my previous visit to the course when i went to back Nations Pride.

All i need is for DB Regio to get their act together as i'm taking the S-Bahn to the course (east part of the city) but there are significant issues with maintenance resulting in some lines not running.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

The Dealer

Thanks and i totally agree. I knew you were involved in Slainte Mhath who must be a lot of fun to be part of. Did i read correctly you have another ?.
We had a message from Daniel yesterday that Salamanca Lad has settled in well and has a nice temperament. Our share allocation is fully taken up at 60% (Fellowship Racing) but there are 2 x 5% shares left with our partner syndicate Diskovery (the Küblers) at least as far as i know.

I'm also involved in another one, an unraced filly, not yet 2 years old; nothing to to do Fellowship Racing though, but more on this when the paperwork is signed.

Ashleigh

An incredible performance, who knows, maybe we will see him in the cup races next season, he doesn't appear to be ground dependant.

Mr Spreadsheet

Probably correct, but the filly is special to me as you know.

WD Andrew.

Result not in yet on the RP, so;

Gallopponline.de;

They decided not to start in the Japan Cup in order to look for their second Group I victory with India this Sunday in Munich, after the Adlerflug daughter owned and bred by the Ittlingen Stud had already won the European Prize. The plan: to go into breeding as a two-time Group I winner.

But nothing came of it in the end. Victory in the Grand Allianz Prize of Bavaria (155,000 euros), Europe's last Group I race on the flat in the 2023 calendar year, went to Junko, trained by Andre Fabre in Chantilly for the Wertheimer brothers. Under Bauyrzhan Murzabayev, the four-year-old son of Intello relegated the assistant (Thore Hammer-Hansen), trained by Henk Grewe for Eckhard Sauren and Liberty Racing 2020, to second place. In third place, India passed the goal post under Rene Piechulek. In the final phase, the mare trained by Waldemar Hickst had a brief moment, but then did not make any decisive progress. Stall Lintec's Best of Lips (Andreas Suborics/Andrasch Starke) took fourth and final place.

Good evening Guys,

PHS, thank you. I think connections of India made the right decision based on her run this afternoon.

Another profitable Sunday afternoon, perhaps i should stick to European mainland courses in future.

I was in two minds whether or not to go to München (Riem) racecourse due to rain and strong wind, probably remnants of the storms experienced in UK during the past few days, but it was actually quite pleasant in the Eastern part of the city, albeit still windy.

I arrived just before 13.30, had a coffee and watched race 5 without a bet. Race 6 was the G1 Preis von Bayern that attracted a small field of 4, 5 before Charlie Appleby withdrew Rebel's Romance. The initial betting was close with the 2 protagonists Junko and India each @ 2.20, but maybe German pride was partly responsible for late backing of the local runner who finished the 2.1 favourite with Junko at 2.30. It was similar when Nations Pride won there in July. I wasn't shocked Junko didn't start favourite, but a little surprised, i thought he had much the better form.

I gave the field a once over in the paddock, Junko looked big, very relaxed and well conditioned, although i admit i'm not a Ken Pitterson type judge by any means.

When the stalls opened the pace was a crawl, farcical, in fact i really thought there had been a false start, but thankfully the jockey made the right decision to go on. The field continued in single file and off the final bend i expected a sprint to the line, but once the jockey asked for an effort in the home straight, it was clear he wasn't going to be caught, being eased close home and winning by 3L.

Although the going was soft, it certainly wasn't heavy and to give you an idea of the initial pace, it was the slowest winning time since 1959.

After watching the prize giving i left, i was only there about 70 minutes, without doubt the shortest time i've spent on a racecourse. I was reasonably confident beforehand (although the pace was a quandary) and i had a nice few bob on, so a rewarding afternoon, even if the S-Bahn train was an issue. I actually took a taxi to the course from Ostbahnhof.

I've seen the jockey Bauyrzhan Murzabayev ride at Longchamp before, but didn't know a lot about him so i did a little research at home. He was born in Kazakhstan (1992) and raised on a farm where he learnt to ride horses from a very early age. Rode his first winner at 7 years old in a 20 km race no less, Asia's answer to Lester. Fast forward to a racing career, he's ridden winners in many countries and was champion jockey several occasions in Czech and Germany, in fact he plans to return here next season to ride for the well known Peter Schiergen stable after a year in France with Andre Fabre. Maybe a jockey to keep an eye on, and his name is hardly one that could get overlooked.

He spoke fluent Deutsch in the post race interview and mentioned Junko would be aimed at the Hong Kong Vase (Happy Valley in December). Of course that race is another level and he will need to improve on todays run (and could of course) but Andre has history in the race, winning it in 2014 with Flintshire, so who knows.

Have a nice Sunday evening all.

Thanks for the summary Andrew.

Good morning Guys from an overcast and mild Linköping/Sweden (arrived yesterday morning).

Finale of the turf flat season in GB that normally features the November handicap meeting from Doncaster, but due to flooding in some areas of the track the entire card has been transferred to the AW course at Newcastle, albeit with maximum 14 runner fields.

Not a race meeting i will be overly interested in, but there are decent cards elsewhere including graded races at Wincanton and Down Royal where Gordon Elliot almost went through the card yesterday and will surely win several this afternoon. Auteuil also stages a 2 day weekend meeting featuring the Grade 1 Grand Prix d'Automne and the highest rated French hurdler Theleme by far (equates to 164) who should win, but is priced accordingly. Having said that backers should note he was beaten @ 2/5 three runs ago. I noticed on Oddschecker he's 10/1 for the Cheltenham Stayers race; could he be the next Baracouda that came over to win in 2002 and 2003 ?

The Grand Sefton handicap (2.45) run over the National fences at Aintree is not the race it was in bygone days and looking at the roll call of winners since its revival in 2003 there isn't one that jumps off the page to my eyes. Todays field doesn't inspire much enthusiasm either even with Nassalam a runner, one i've backed often as regular readers know. I've mentioned before he will win a decent race one day, but probably when i've given up no him, so any backers today are in luck, because i won't be. I'm not playing in the race anyway, but but if i was, it would probably be the Laura Morgan trained Percussion EW who was 3rd in this race last year after a break and went on to finish 3rd in the Becher handicap chase so we know he can handle the fences. Has won on heavy so the going will not be an issue. Currently odds of 9.4 and 2.8 for 3/TBP.

Paul Nichols and Harry Cobden look as though they could have a good afternoon at Wincanton and i've already backed Rubaud (3.00) who only has Hansard to beat, but there is a subsequent NR and is a little shorter than i expected last night.

At odds against Bollingerandkrug (Kelso 12.30) has to give weight to his rivals, but certainly loves the course with 11 of his 18 races there (including his previous 8) and all 5 wins. Jumps well and often front runs, ideal for this track. Up 6 lb for his previous win and has gone up 21 lb in the ratings since reverting to fences off a mark of 100 in March, but could still be progressing. Has drifted a little to 3.05, but i think he wins.

At Down Royal i think Foxy Girl is short enough at 15/8 in the listed race (1.45) for what she has actually achieved. Her mares novices hurdle run (8th of 21) wasn't bad, keen, but many of those behind her were average. A mark of 123 may look lenient on handicap debut, but she has hasn't run since Cheltenham and is up against seasoned handicappers. I will be a layer.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

PHS

Thank you.

Thank you ANDREW    G/L 

I have never really backed on the AW I find it hard enough to keep up with the turf cards so will give Newcastle a miss. Had a bet earlier on Flagrant Delitiep 1.15 Wincanton but it has been well tipped up. Have a good day Andrew.

WD Andrew. Looks like a full house of positive results.

Well done yesterday Andrew.

Good afternoon Guys,

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated. A profitable post last Saturday with all selections paying out.

A short post as i'm meeting friends for lunch in the city.

A decent card at Cheltenham this afternoon with the Shloer chase and Nube Negra going for a hat-trick of wins, followed  by the Greatwood handicap that has been won by a couple of subsequent champion hurdle winners in bygone years. I doubt there's anything of CH winning class running today, but a decent field nevertheless.

I think Jonbon will win and shorten in the betting even further for the Tingle Creek at Sandown in 3 weeks, but his odds today will reflect this. I will be going over for this meeting.

Another i fancy at much better odds is Sonigino in the Greatwood (3.30). Progressive, and may have been a little unlucky in his penultimate race at Aintree in April, finishing strongly in 3rd, and ran well in a decent handicap at Chepstow LTO. Both races were over further, but he's won over 16f and travels well. Soft will not be an issue. Up 2 lb, but his more than capable claimer takes off 5 lb. A very open race as you would expect, but at odds of 16 for the win and around 3.5 for 4/TBP i think he's a small bet.

My lay selection is Up For Parol (Fontwell 1.33). Hasn't made the progress connections may have expected when he finished 3rd in the Persian War Novices at Chepstow over 2 years ago. Inconsistent, up and down in the ratings within a range of 127-133 and i don't feel the drop in trip is in his favour. Currently odds of 2.78.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.

Thank you ANDREW
G/L

WD with the lay Andrew. Looked dangerous in a 3 horse race but I'm sure you never expected that to happen.

Well done on Songino too.

Good morning Guys,

Many thanks for the posts.

PHS, no i didn't expect it. When i looked at the field earlier in the morning, i thought all 3 runners had questions to answer, albeit less so with the eventual winner. I certainly didn't see it as a match and the winner was 7 lb under his previous winning rating. When Yorksea downed tools at the start, it wasn't looking good and Up For Parol immediately went to odds of 1.45. The eventual winner was never far away and i was surprised the leader was matched at 1.11 IR. Found little when challenged and is probably best avoided until he shows better form.

My EW selection, Sonigino ran well to be 4th in the days big handicap (SP 11/1). A good day for me, although a few bob on Jonbon was the main source of profit.

Not much i fancy today, but in the opener at Fakenham, i've already layed the likely favourite Francina, even though he's the only runner with experience in the small field of 5. Runner-up on his only run, but there were 4 runners and 2 didn't finish the course. Related to several winners and from an in-form stable, probably the reasoning he was favourite that day, but his run was ordinary at best; in receipt of 7 lb, the winner had been beaten 67 L previously and winning time of the race was slow. Different going today and although Hereford is sharpish, it's not the Greyhound circuit that Fakenham is. A risky lay given lack of experience of course, but 7/4 is short enough.

Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all.

Thank you ANDREW

well done Andrew

Morning all

Lol! I mean afters all