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09 Jan 23
11:41
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Date Joined:
22 Apr 19
Good afternoon Guys from a chilly and blustery München,
Arrived back on Saturday afternoon after over 2 weeks in West London area (generally) visiting family and friends for the festive/NY season.
A new year, so a new thread. I don't need to explain the history behind my lay threads (regular readers obviously know it) but lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar. Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post-race and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
The threads are in decent profit overall (breakdown below). I haven't replicated my 2018 success (2 threads sandwiching a vacation) in latter years and increased workload is partly responsible for lack of selections from 2020 to present. From late April 2018 i was at home for 5 weeks, it was actually the catalyst that started my lay thread format. In 2021, there was sufficient profit (pre-commission) to buy a small size Milky Way Chocolate bar, albeit a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). As for last year, 2022, not a lot to be said with only a pathetic 18 selections and a poor run in summer, resulting in a yearly loss of £202.50. This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. Thankfully i recovered a little with 5 consecutive successes, but too little, too late. In 2023 i plan to concentrate more on PL lays.
Looking at my profit levels, if i was a racehorse, i would be labelled 'regressing'
Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Note the figures above are pre-commission and a minor change to 2019 (after checking the link on my previous thread posted by Mr Spreadsheet who kindly logs all my results. Apologies if there are other errors (unlikely) but they will certainly be rectified if discovered.
Good luck in 2023.
The 2022 thread can drop off the page now.
Arrived back on Saturday afternoon after over 2 weeks in West London area (generally) visiting family and friends for the festive/NY season.
A new year, so a new thread. I don't need to explain the history behind my lay threads (regular readers obviously know it) but lets get straight into the concept for those that may not be familiar. Conditions of each Lay Post will be the same as always (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched to win a stake of £50 (not liability). A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the P/L status post-race and everything will be recorded on this thread only.
The threads are in decent profit overall (breakdown below). I haven't replicated my 2018 success (2 threads sandwiching a vacation) in latter years and increased workload is partly responsible for lack of selections from 2020 to present. From late April 2018 i was at home for 5 weeks, it was actually the catalyst that started my lay thread format. In 2021, there was sufficient profit (pre-commission) to buy a small size Milky Way Chocolate bar, albeit a small loss at 2% (the figure that counts of course). As for last year, 2022, not a lot to be said with only a pathetic 18 selections and a poor run in summer, resulting in a yearly loss of £202.50. This was unfortunate as i suspect the many random lays (not counted) would have yielded a reasonable profit. Thankfully i recovered a little with 5 consecutive successes, but too little, too late. In 2023 i plan to concentrate more on PL lays.
Looking at my profit levels, if i was a racehorse, i would be labelled 'regressing'
Lay Threads Record
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657
Andrews Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425
Andrews Random Daily Lay Thread 2019
Total 78 selections
Success 55/78
Strike rate 70%
Overall profit +£219
Andrews Random Lay Thread 2020
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread
Total 28 selections
Success 18/28
Strike rate 64%
Overall profit +£0.50
Andrews 2022 Lay Thread
Total 18 selections
Success 10/18
Strike rate 55%
Overall Loss -£202.50
Note the figures above are pre-commission and a minor change to 2019 (after checking the link on my previous thread posted by Mr Spreadsheet who kindly logs all my results. Apologies if there are other errors (unlikely) but they will certainly be rectified if discovered.
Good luck in 2023.
The 2022 thread can drop off the page now.
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Lay Post
Ayr 2.10 - Masked Crusader A 7-year-old Masked Marvel gelding trained by Donald McCain in Cheshire. Dam was unraced. 4 offspring with a total of 3 wins, albeit none of any note. Lightly raced, winner of a P2P (from 3) and a couple of class 4 novice hurdles (from 3) albeit odds-on in both (the last one 1/14f and only won by a neck). Thereafter had wind surgery. A short price favourite (11/8) on chase debut, always up with the pace after an early error, but didn't find much in the finish and eventually finished 4th, beaten almost 8L. Looked to be going to win in his next run when the jockey unseated at the final fence. Irrespective of this, those that have run since have not franked the form. The handicapper marked him up a lb to 119 yahfor the mishap. Doesn't do a lot once in front, so has to be produced at the right time and although he may have won over 16f LTO, could prefer further. Heavy going may not be an issue, but it's not a given (all wins have good in the going description) and he's conceding weight to the field. A Hughes/McCain favourite running North of the border is always a risk, but he has to jump better and in a field of unexposed rivals, any of whom could win, but i don't think it will be this afternoon, hence the lay selection. I finished 2022 with a run of 5 successive lays, so hopefully i can continue into this year. Lay @ 3.20 Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Good luck Andrew!! Here's to a successful 2023!
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Andrew,
I'm sure you're sweating on the answer to my question about the unusual pattern in the past runs of Eagle Court. Well the answer is that in 27 career starts, he's never run downhill during a race. He's had 25 runs on dead flat tracks and 2 runs up the North Face at Pontefract. It's a slight stretch to describe Ayr as dead flat, but the undulations are pretty gentle and certainly nothing like he'd find at venues such as Ascot, Bath, Brighton, Chepstow, Epsom, Goodwood, Lingfield, Salisbury in races over 12F or further. And all of those are possible venues for him this year! | ||||||||
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Mr Spreadsheet
Thanks, i can't do any worse than in 2022  A risky lay for first of the year, but most at risky below 5/2. Alan Thanks for putting me out of my misery I have to be honest, with travelling, Christmas/NY, family visits etc i had forgotten you mentioning it, but i wouldn't have got the answer regardless. An interesting stat though, there can't be many (if any) who have a similar record after 27 starts. Good luck with both, i will keep an eye on entries. You may have read i was at Kempton last Friday (guest of a part owner) my first venture at a GB/AW track. Not many in attendance, and only 5 bookmakers (i think) but an enjoyable afternoon. | ||||||||
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I always enjoy reading your thread Andrew,so good luck this year and I hope Masked Crusader is the start of a good run for you.
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Happy New Year Andrew,and Good Luck 2023.
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Good luck with your 2023 thread Andrew,
Let’s hope the Masked Crusader does a Batman and starts it off on a winning note. | ||||||||
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Good luck for 2023 Andrew, lets hope you get off to a flyer!
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WD AIS
Nice start | ||||||||
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Well beaten, nice start, keep it up!
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Well done Andrew
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WD Andrew (even though I missed post (blame hoovering))
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Nice one Andrew, hope you`re well.
I`m sure this thread will be at least as successful as the last. The last thread hurt the fatheads i`ll tell ya | ||||||||
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Good start to 2023. WD.
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All downhill for the rest of the year now Andrew.! Good luck.
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Always read but rarely post, good luck and keep posting
 I agreed Andrew, Frankel best I've ever seen live! Sir peter said sea bird was his best, just like Arkle they just a distant memory now. The current generation want to wipe out 300 years of history! Worst part is, think it's 50/50 going into the next 25 years  | ||||||||
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Good afternoon Guys from a chilly and cloudy München,
Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated. My lay selection Masked Crusader was the morning favourite, but drifted on course from 2/1 to 11/4. Part of the lay post reasoning was based on his lack of fluency jumping fences and we saw further evidence of this during the race with several mistakes. Although in contention 4 out, the errors had taken their toll and another at the 3rd last was the final straw. Faded quickly and was PU. I also feel the drop in trip wasn't necessarily a positive either. It's nice to get the first selection in 2023 beaten (now on a roll of 6) but i'm fully aware one Swallow doesn't make a Summer. I still plan to post my occasional muses/thoughts (albeit more so at weekends due to time contraints) but i also want to get back to my earlier years format with PL lays and status updated after each selection. Good luck and have a nice Tuesday all. 2023 Lay P/L Status
Note profit is pre-commission Running form = thread result, not the race | ||||||||
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Trusty
WD with the EW double (7/2 and 10/1) that paid the place (previous thread). | ||||||||
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afternoon?
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It's Munchen time PHS. As referred to in Wizard of OZ
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PHS
Sorry, where i am it is (München) | ||||||||
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Hi Andrew
Good morning (where I am anyway ) Good luck on this new 2023 thread and well done on your great start | ||||||||
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Morning All,
Another short priced favourite in a juvenile hurdle for Gary Moore and owner Olly Harris this afternoon - Perseus Way, 3:00 Huntingdon. And it's another lay for me as I'm not at all convinced that his third place in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow amounts to much. He was being niggled along by Jamie Moore from halfway and came under strong pressure from three out, but looked rather less enthusiastic about it than you'd like for a horse that will be around even money today. Moore has reacted by fitting cheekpieces, which aren't shown as first time by the Post, as he wore them once as a 2yo when trained by CHarlie Appleby, but it is the first time over hurdles. Not sure that will help with his jumping, which has been a bit hit and miss so far. And my last concern would be the nature of this sharp track, given he's come from behind at Chepstow and previously at Cheltenham. | ||||||||
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Thanks for the input Anorak, dont always follow but well worth a read as is most of Andrews thread.
Good luck later. | ||||||||
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Oh well, can't lose them all. He certainly travelled more sweetly in the cheekpieces and jumped better as well. Second favourite a big disappointment.
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Good morning Guys,
My first week back at work in 2023 and this weekend can't come soon enough, i was getting used to a relaxed lifestyle in GB recently, even if it doesn't pay the bills. At first glance i thought the cards were half-decent this afternoon, although delving deeper the grade 2's at Kempton and Warwick appear to lack a little in quality, but perhaps i was spoilt by the Christmas/NY festivals. Speaking of festivals, several days ago, i investigated the logistics of going to Leopardstown for the DRF in February (Irish Champion Hurdle weekend). Oddly enough, a KLM return flight from München to Dublin is cheaper than to London (at least for the days/times i wanted) so this was a positive, but then i checked hotel prices in the city. I appreciate they were expected to be higher for that weekend (aka Cheltenham in March) but most were way OTT, more so considering i wasn't looking for anything other than a run of the mill chain hotel. On to this afternoon, i thought the Kempton card had a 'backers' look about it, although i wouldn't call Pic Dory and Quick Draw bombproof, albeit risky lays. I'm looking for a PL lay post elsewhere and will probably post later, but in the meantime i think the Ben Pauling trained Qunita Do Mar has an EW chance in the Lanzarote (2.40). Fell at the final flight in the race last year when in contention (probably wouldn't have won) and won well LTO giving 22 lb to the runner-up who has franked the form winning twice since. To add substance the 3rd and 6th have also won. Only run once at Kempton, but the course shouldn't be an issue as he's won over sharp tracks. Stable in form. Current odds of 30 and 6 (4/TBP) were higher than i expected and is worth a small stake, but we all know these large field, decent class handicaps are a minefield. Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. Alan Unlucky, but it was odds-on and as you intimated, jumped better than in previous runs. Always good to see you and Trusty put up selections with reasoning. Lucky Where you are, i wouldn't bother coming back Glasgow Thank you | ||||||||
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HPNY Andrew Always -- I always enjoy reading your well informed and well thought out threads . Hope the year is a very profitable one for you.
All the best | ||||||||
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Let's see if we can get our money back The Anorak laying G.Moore/O.Harris's Haddex Des Obeaux at 2.94 currently in the 1.15 Warwick. Won well at Doncaster last month in class 3 on good going; up to class 2 today and got another 6lb's. Warwick is not Doncaster but more interesting for me is V.Williams has a 50% S/R in the race as does T.George plus D.Skelton runs the fav for the Haldon who has yet to strike form yet this year. Lastly from 6 runners there has been just 1 place to date for 6year olds. It's a very open race and should be 3/1 the field imo, so under 2/1 to lay Haddex looks worth a shot.
This is not an anti G.Moore laying thread, just happens he seems to have a few shorties running at the moment. | ||||||||
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Looked like he was racing with the choke out and thought he would come back, turned out to be a very easy winner.
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Lay Post
Southwell 2.20 - Glorious Angel A 3 year old Cotai Glory filly trained by Grant Tuer in Yorkshire. Dam won a 5f sprint. 2 offspring, the other one is a full sister to the sprinter Devious Angel. Lightly raced on the AW, 5 runs with a 1-1-1 record, all on Tapeta. Won a couple of 6f sprints on turf as a 2 year old, the last one (August) off a mark of 74. Highly tried in 3 runs (better class) thereafter and a runner-up position took her to 79. Transferred from Hugo Palmer to Grant who subsequently ran her in 3 class 4 nurseries, a couple of them over 7f (3rd place best finish). Won on 2023 debut (6f) albeit off a reduced mark of 76, receiving 8 lb from the runner-up. Jockey Sam James was suspended for 2 days by the stewards as he drifted left causing interference to a couple of others (not the first time the filly has hung). I'm a little surprised connections are stepping her back up to 7f (all wins over 6f) and she's carrying a 6 lb penalty to a mark of 82 that will require a best performance. The breeding certainly doesn't scream out 7f and she finished over 7L behind Lord Sam's Castle over this trip at Newcastle in November and is only 2 lb better off. A small field of 5, but a tricky handicap and any of the quintet could win, but i'm content with my reasoning, hence the lay selection. Lay @ 3.45 Good luck all | ||||||||
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Trusty
Unlucky with the lay, but thanks for the post. | ||||||||
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G/L Andrew
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Thanks Lampus, also to The Dragon for the kind comments.
Good luck all. | ||||||||
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Good evening Guys,
Unfortunately the lay selection Glorious Angel won by a fast diminishing neck, although maybe layers were a little unlucky as the runner-up was very slowly away and finished strongly. To be fair, and give the winner credit, she did stay the 7f well to hold on (that went against my judgement) and turned around a 7L defeat with Lord Sam's Castle (Newcastle in November) who drifted ominously in the betting on course. The only 'form' explanation i can think of is a round course v a straight previously. Never mind, it's racing and i got it wrong this time, a pity as it would have been 7 successive lays in row (5 carried over from 2022). Have a nice evening all. 2023 Lay P/L Status
Running form = thread result, not the race | ||||||||
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Dave Brannigan says still no sign of Currywurst in DLR canteen nor Weisswurst other than early shift once a week?
No idea why but he again extends an invite to AIS to meet up in the canteen or contact him via Forces Reunited with the instruction to use his dads credentials and he will know it is genuine!! | ||||||||
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Dave Brannigan says still no sign of Currywurst in DLR canteen nor Weisswurst other than early shift once a week?
No idea why but he again extends an invite to AIS to meet up in the canteen or contact him via Forces Reunited with the instruction to use his dads credentials and he will know it is genuine!! | ||||||||
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Good afternoon Guys,
No lay selection this afternoon (still aggrieved with yesterdays) although i was tempted to put up the Dan Skelton trained likely favourite Missed Tea at Hereford (1.40) albeit risky after a loss. I think Leading Theatre is a bet in the race (currently 5/1 in places) as an EW to nothing. Her form in mares novice hurdles is 3-1-2 and was conceding 9lb to the runner-up when winning her penultimate run, and 11lb to the winner when runner-up LTO. Only a lb higher to 106 that is easily doable. Soft going is a bit of an unknown (ran on such going in P2P's) but course and trip shouldn't be an issue. On to Wolverhampton (6.00) Barenboim has the misfortune to be betowed with my nap selection in the daily competition, but he has a good winning chance nevertheless. Winner of 4 from 6 since moving to the David O'Meara stable and going up 23 lb in the handicap to 90. A decent turn of foot for a 'lower' class runner and no doubt he will be hold up for a late run. Tapeta will not be an issue, but has to proves he stays 16f (step up from 12f previously) although he has run over hurdles. In form jockey Daniel Muscott is a bonus (strike rate 24% in previous 2 weeks). Good luck and have a nice Monday all. | ||||||||
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G/L Andrew
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Not a sausage?
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