What was tha about - RTV - "Huge Win for Betfair Punter"

Looks like a £2 Lucky 31 - and a £5 Accumulator

The £5 Accumulator had - £49,725 going on to the last Horse (which went on to Win at 15/8) meaning - Would have Won circa £143,000 ...

He Cashed Out the Accumulator - for - £36,212

£58K seems incredibly low.

It was worth about double that.

It seems very low. Perhaps he was on at much smaller prices? At the prices mentioned his lucky31 was worth about £30k with one to run.

of course, bookies always take their cut of the cash out, between 20-50% of the actual value.

He’d have been getting 7/1 for a 2/1 shot in the last. I know it’s easy after the event but why not just cash out the acca.

wd whoever you are, enjoy

I’m sure it wasn’t an easy decision to make and he obviously had mixed emotions having seen the last leg win but I imagine there are very few people who wouldn’t have banked the cash.

Yeah Barry, most of us would give up the chance of winning £425,00 on a fav for the sake of £367,000 less

He already had a nice few quid guaranteed from the lucky 31.

The £2 4 fold comes to about £20K.

He was mugged.

If you have a £200k acca and the last leg is at evens, a fair cash-out would be £100k, but the bookie will offer €75k and hope you take it.

The payout was £21,756 from the Lucky 31 and £36,212 from the  accumulator.

How can the payout from the lucky 15 be less than what was already guaranteed to win.

I'm surprised they've made this public cuz I'm not sure it's good publicity as far as cash outs are concerned.

he is a mug and in years to come when hes done it in he will curse himself. never cash out. hard to credit people do it. and luckies are mug bets without giant bonuses. yet they remain incredibly popular.

one coupon the shops are never without is the luckies.

Incredibly poor decision. If he could afford to throw away £67 on a multi it's unlikely £50G would make a huge difference to his life, £450G may well have done. But surprising Betfair are happy to publicise the RIP OFF.

If it's a straight acca - all or nothing on the last leg, then depending on a person's financial circumstances, cashing out may be the right thing to do?

Cuz you could take the view, say it was £70K going onto the last leg, that it wouldn't cross an ordinary punter's mind to stake that much on a horse, if only because they've never had that amount before in their lives.

But against that, you could argue, people do such bets hoping for a life-changing win, so if you're fortunate enough to find yourself in with a good chance of such a payout, why then bottle it?

Well, there ya go, that's cleared that up!

you are as dim as he is. the very reason you should not do luckies is the full cover nonsense. if youve 70 bags going on the next one do you really want a single?

and another reason for the undesirability of affordability cheques. the obvious, ie. laying a chunk on the last leg might not be possible because they wont let you stick it to do so. assuming you dont have it in there already.

Man who admits to recklessly blowing 8 grand, calls another man dim.

Thanks for the kind words, mitolo

A fair (or as fair as can be expected) settlement would be £58K PLUS the £30K he's already guaranteed to win.

im a roll n butter but not dim.

@ these prices -  16/1,9/1,7/2 & 12/1 (£2 L15 for the 4 wnrs,that had run, returns £30,490).
How was he offered £21,756?

I suppose it depends hope important the cashed out value was to him. When I have been in a position of cashing out I generally let it ride as the cash out value is not there.

datso? well spotted brainbox

Cashing out accas never made sense anyway. If you make a 3-leg acca, you want all 3 to win. If you make a 4-leg acca, you cash out after 3 wins? What's the point of making the last selection then, you just lose money on the cash out.

there are very few people who wouldn’t have banked the cash.

Agree George , when I had my little win last November I had about 5k return with 2 to run .....I was not offered any cash out .....I would have taken a similar amount if offered no doubt.

why?

Gaze, the cash out is bigger if you've got one to run

I think I may now understand the the cash out being so low having a look at oddschecker.

The chap has clearly cashed out earlier in the day. The horse was trading at 4/1 at 3.00pm

Springmeadow was his last leg that won in the 2.55 ffos las. The last leg was then not due off till 5.05

He clearly thought at that point after the 4th leg without thinking, he should get out of the bet, as the cash out before the off would of been much higher with the sports book laying off the bet.

So if he had taken the morning price that was 11/2 the accumulator was the bet worth in the region of 260-280k I’d say. So the cash out with the take outs from the bookmaker makes sense at 38k at the 4/1 at 3.00pm.

I know what your thinking inspector clouseau

The 21k cash out at that time also makes sense in regards 11/2 morning price and the price at the time of 4/1 at 3.00pm is in line with the cash out offer

So what I’m saying as phone is playing up. He has cashed the bet at 3.00pm at the 4/1 price and not the price of 15/8 on the off when he would of been able to cash it for 40% more.

That’s my thinking anyway

How can £21K make sense when it was already worth £30K

I’m sure he’ll be on soon to say how Ill he feels. Not sure you can come back from this as a punter

he had the best win of his life and is having a terrible night, go figure.

Good god what inept cashing out - cash out of 1 not the other, I might do a £1 acc just for the purpose of cashing out my L15 selections but to cash out both is silly. Hope he spends his 10,s of 000 wisely.......

Who said the bet was worth 30k. I don’t even know what the stake is?

Why don't you read the thread?

Swifty you may of been delighted and most punters would but to cash both bets is madness imo and I’d struggle to live with it, with a life changer down the Kermit. He’ll never get the opportunity again you can be sure of that

I have jml. I’ve seen penzance post.

The payout was £21,756 from the Lucky 31 and £36,212 from the  accumulator.

How can the payout from the lucky 15 be less than what was already guaranteed to win.

  Untill we know what prices were taken ( if any ) hard to say, but surely had more than £21k back

  if left to run. ??

A lucky 31 is 31 bets so a 2 pound bet would be costing the punter 62 pound. He only staked 67 total

yes he also had a £5 acca ( i think ) , my point was any settlers on here that can tell me what

his £2 yankee was worth before the last leg ??? ta.

I think penzance calculations are right but I can’t figure out his stake doesn’t calculate to a £2 stake with a fiver to have on the acca

harry, that's what i said, the bloke will be ruing his decision for life.

Harry 62+5.

He'll be telling his mates down the pub for years to come that he backed 5 horses in a bet to win nearly £1/2million, and they all won, 'wow they say'....'but i struck a deal for £50G.'

Imagine he'd stayed away from the screen all day and only checked after all races complete..

This is the general problem for people putting these monster lines on and constantly tracking the CO after.. when one is going well, the offer to snatch at what's on offer is almost always too much temptation(no matter how absurdly stinking the "value" offer is)

In saying all of the above I've sat on some lovely cash outs in my time and rejected them all and have regretted every one ever since!

yes swifty I know what 62 + t is. However I've tried to work it out accumulator and lucky 61 and can't get anywhere near 425k I make ot much more at the odds. Nothing is adding up to what they are saying. The only thing I pretty certain of is he cashed it out soon after the 4th leg as that would make sense in regards to what he has cashed it for if the odds were 4/1 at that time.

Anyway a putrid day for the punter. He's gone from a 4 bed house to a motor home in 2 hours

swifty, the point is there shouldn't be any regrets. 2 things will guarantee you this. 1) Calculation of odds. 2) Pre-determined hope/desire = which should only ever amount to clearing your line. 1+2 dampen any thoughts of jumping in too early and STOPPING the possibility of jackpot payout.

We know that accas offer poor value to begin with, so y engage with them if you're not going to see them through? Cashing out on them is like doubling down on taking/accepting rotten value.

lol Harry--you're right it doesn't come to £425K

£57.000 he never had….

he may have got Spring Meadow at 6-1.

If he had got 6/1 spring meadow that would throw it a mile out as its already to high as it is at 7/2. Maybe this is a load of porkies. It smells to me  these figures don't add up. The price in the morning was 11/2.
Anyway it stinks. Good-night.

No doubt the winning punter done half in at the casino after getting inebriated wondering what he has done. Sacrilege decision.

I'd have the rope out myself. Sweet dreams

The lucky 31 was £1 e/w.

That makes sense discard. 

Helps explains the cashout figure for the lucky 31. Still much worse % than the accumulator offer.

The maximum possible win is now around £200K.

It looks very likely that the £425K figure is a mistake.

harry callaghan 23 Oct 22 21:5
 
I think penzance calculations are right but I can’t figure out his stake doesn’t calculate to a £2 stake with a fiver to have on the acca
----------------

Yes it Does - harry

Lucky31 = 31 Bets (naturally)  - at £2 = £62

TOTAL Stake was - £67

£67 Minus the (Lucky31) Stake of £62 = ... Leaves a FIVER £5 for the Additional 5-Horse Accumulator.

All straightforward.

33% chance of winning the last leg….trading around a 2

This is what I make the bet give or take if he’d taken 5/1 and not 11/2 in the morning
£5 accumulator win
Rider on the storm 16/1
Spring meadow 7/2
Dingo dollar 12/1
Honor grey 9/1
Credojava 11/2 morning price
Returns £323,212.5p if 5/1 £298,350p

£1ew lucky 31
Rider on the storm 16/1
Spring meadow 7/2
Dingo dollar 12/1
Honor grey 9/1
Credojava 11/2 morning price this has drifted so he maybe had the 5/1 previous price
Returns £115,580 if 5/1 £107,911p

Surely one bet, he has to let run.

He’s hit the panic button @ 3pm at which time the horse was 4/1 hence the poor cash out, or he’s had a woman pizzing in his ear roll (a fair chance) and she’s destroyed him??

one way or another he’s done his conkers

Seems obvious as above that you would surely cash one out (the acca personally?) and let the other one run.

The lucky 31 was already guaranteed a payout, the acca could have ended as 0.

so £36G cash out offered on the acca about possibly a 4-1 shot at the time of accepting. That scandal should make front page of the Post and give betfair (and cash outs in general) some real publicity.

harry -

Whilst acknowledging your detailed research re: oddschecker, etc -
- it is far from conclusive (as you conclude, or assume) that the Bet was CASHED-OUT  - "at 3pm"

I have to say that because ...

RTV were going on about this Bet before the last race (at 5:05pm)  - and ...

As soon as the race was over - the Two presenters immediately said - "... and has Won a HUGE Amount for a Betfair punter"
The other presenter said - "They must have been worried when Ruby Island was closing in fast in the last furlong"

Hence my Thread TITLE .... What was that about - RTV - "Huge Win for Betfair Punter"

It was the RTV broadcast that brought the bet to my attention - and NOT - the Racing Post story - which did not appear for another hour or so.
---------------

Therefore - Either the Punter 'lost their nerve' close to race time of 5:05p, and Cashed-Out Then - or ...

Communication between Betfair and RTV Studio - then Aintree - was atrocious (not informing RTV of the Cash-Out) ... However, I have to doubt that as -

The Presenters at Aintree KNEW all about the Bet... and were of the opinion that the Bet was STILL live - NOT having been told anything otherwise.

So Betfair had informed RTV - that it was a LIVE Bet - and would they, Betfair, still tell RTV if the Bet had ALREADY been Cashed-Out 2 Hours earlier ? .... NO

Onlooker if he cashed out before the off both cashouts are poultry hence why I presumed he cashed when the odds were 4/1. If he cashed at 36k it can’t of been when the odds were 15/8 surely. It had to of been worth 80k ish at that time surely otherwise it’s a disgusting cash out

You give the Punter far too much credence - harry

I am pointing out the factual machinations of what happened - relevant to the timetable of events around the 5:05pm race, and the RTV actual broadcast.

You are coming up with convoluted mathematical equations and opinions that would leave most on here in 'no man's land' - despite them punting day in day out.

- and - I think you meant - paltry - not "poultry" 

However  "poultry"  is fair a contender for an applicable Freudian Slip.

It was a fowl offer!

Payout limits! Would the acca be limited to £250,000 perhaps? Or even the combined sum of L15 + acca?
https://www.betfair.com/en/aboutUs/Sportsbook.Rules.And.Regulations/#MaxWin

What effect that might have had on the cash-out offer, or the punter's deliberations, is unknown. although they had none on the media's calculations of the return but from the RP story in the second message on this thread, Betfair's PR spokesman did not give a figure.

Other than that, I'd agree with the consensus that the punter should have cashed out one bet and let the other run, but I've not got Betfair on the phone rushing me for a quick decision.

Admit I dont go on sportsbook much, but can say I have never seen a facility for putting on  " Lucky

31s "  ?? Anyone know ? Ta.

GLASGOWCALLING pick 5 races/horses and scroll down right side of screen to multiples slip  (no bog though )

OK thanks, dont use the Sportsbook much.

Just wondering what was the guaranteed amount on the L31 when he cashed out? i.e. if the last one lost after leaving it on.

From my quick calculation about 14k if the last horse had been unplaced - unless anyone calculated different?

Guess would have been nice payout for a 1ew 31 (62 quid), but still a fair drop.

I would have deffo let the L31 run, those kind of bets are created to give you a guaranteed payout while still letting it run - otherwise stick to accas only.

Simples.

£1 e/w Lucky 31 and a £5 acca.

If he let it run and the last horse lost he would have picked up 15.5k...he's not thinking about the percentages and whether he should strictly take it on the math side of it...he's doing what most people do, not thinking about it winning but assuming it will lose....15k or 58k...he bit.

Indeed it was classic prospect theory - people are risk averse when presented with winnings.

But, are risk-seeking if presented with a loss - if he was chasing on that last one, he'd likely have left it on!

It wasn't £15k, £57k or £425k though. He could have cashed out just the acca and banked £51k with a shot at just under 100k more if he had 5-1 or 11/2 about the fav in the last.

I'm 57k up ta.

Well done 11kv and brilliant to select all those winners.  Laugh all the way to the bank as they say.

Obviously really well done for picking those winners and the cash out on the acca is fine if you thought you had good value on your first 4 selections.

In general though people will be annoyed when bookies get away with miserly cash out offers because it just encourages them to do it more. On the Lucky 31 you took about 7k more on top of the 51k you'd banked between the acca cash out and the first 4 legs of the Lucky 31 rather than let that one play out for a shot at almost 100k extra on top.

Did you realize this at the time?

Were you not able to only cash out the acca and let the Lucky 31 run?

If you got 50K left on mortgage and someone offers 58K and you don't know anyone to ring up to lay a massive bet on last leg then think most would take it, 1/16 lose nevermind 15/8, all depends on your situation.

Well done 11kv enjoy the money.I honestly don't know what I would do if offered a deal for that kind of money.I hope I get the big money offer one day to find out.

Why are you so quick to believe him? A rando shows up 2 days later and the only thing he says is that he's up 57k.

99% of betfair users don't even post here but of course the winner is one of the posters

35K Topic/Replies to your 9k Gaze !!!  And you call him a " Rando ". 

Posy yer bet, 11kv!

Tell him to fk off

If it was you 11k (no reason not to believe you personally), could you add your thinking on cashing out for both bets - and not letting the L31 ride at least?

Whoever it was I doubt very much that they would have been able to cash out just the 50k on the acca alone and let the lucky 31 ride as every single person would do that I would have thought....the whole part of the offer is to play on the bettors concerns...offering the acca alone wouldn't do that at all.

Surely they are two separate bets - if you want to cash out one, you do it?

if it is as reported a cash out with 1 leg remaining and if it is 11kv he should change his moniker to 11iq.

Lucky 31 had over £15K guaranteed with the same amount going on to the last leg.

He sold that £15K bet on the 5th leg for £6.5K. (about 40%)

He got about 72.5% on the acc.

In reality once you go below 80% you're in rip off territory.

two separate bets two separate cashouts

Leave the guy alone…he got his 57k……why don’t you just p!ss off….jealous scoundrels

I wonder if the 'winner' is aware of how many people on here are saying it was a bad offer.

They remind of the contestants on Deal Or No Deal who were full of similar bravado ....when it was somebody else playing ......

I have never watched Deal or No Deal but its all down to the personal financial situation of the winner as to what he or she does.

have to be mentally defective to view that tripe.

whatever the geezers circs, it was a bad deal. even if i was living in a tree i wouldnt take it. im not, its a skip but id at least try to find an alternative, either laying the last one or dutching the rest, using friends and family if need be but that might not have been possible, before letting notfair get out of it so cheap.

and i dont think advertising he cashed out is any good as all people focus on is what a shocker it was, if as reported. they will now be aware of it, if they were not already

and it was a lucky and a bad bet to start with

If the figures and prices being quoted are correct then it was a poor cash out offer. Accepting £21k for a bet that was already guaranteed £15k is ridiculous. If he did in fact get around 5/1 for the last horse then he would’ve had seven times more money to come (around £105k, possibly a bonus too?) if it won. It was a no-brainer to let the bet run. Little to lose and so much to gain. Betfair would’ve been slapping themselves on the back as soon as the offer was taken. They were the big winners on the day.

I can totally understand them taking the cash out offer for the accumulator. £30k is far too much for most people to risk on a horse race.

Even winning 15k from a 60 quid bet is a bit of a storming day on the markets - most of us on here would dine out on that for many a year.

And that was the worst case scenario. I've played lucky's (15/31 etc) in the past - would never have dreamed of cashing out, given such a guarantee already banked.

Whatever 58K in back pocket you be **** it out

*hitting

ttt for Gibberish

Thanks George - much appreciated.

I do actually remember seeing this - I smelled a rat straight away that it just didn't
add up...just as a few others did. JML's question below deserves a response


JML - The payout was £21,756 from the Lucky 31 and £36,212 from the accumulator.

How can the payout from the lucky 15 be less than what was already guaranteed to win?


It's disgusting what these fcukers get away with...that's as good as fraudulent!