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I'm more looking for online calculators that can do this but can't find any.
First here are two very simple things we can all agree on.
To keep it simple, lets say there is a two horse race and both horses have an equal chance of winning. Each horse has a probability of 50% and should be evens the pair.
Lets say there are 3 horses racing and all have an equal chance of winning. Each horse has a 33% chance and should be 2/1 right?
Now lets say there are 5 horses running and the place market is paying out 2 places. Lets say all horses have an equal chance of placing. What odds should a horse be to place? Is there any online calculators I can plug this stuff into and get the probability?
First here are two very simple things we can all agree on.
To keep it simple, lets say there is a two horse race and both horses have an equal chance of winning. Each horse has a probability of 50% and should be evens the pair.
Lets say there are 3 horses racing and all have an equal chance of winning. Each horse has a 33% chance and should be 2/1 right?
Now lets say there are 5 horses running and the place market is paying out 2 places. Lets say all horses have an equal chance of placing. What odds should a horse be to place? Is there any online calculators I can plug this stuff into and get the probability?
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2.89
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6/4
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Can't be done Pulio if you require an accurate picture as win vs place odds for a horse are often miles apart from expectations , all races are different and the profile of the horse often determines the place odds , example a debutant will almost certainly be longer place odds than an exposed horse despite them being the same win odds.
Two different markets and that's how it should be. Also the reason all punters should have a bookmaker a/c as they're compelled to offer the same place terms whatever the race shape , profile or mathematics. Check out the relationship between win & place for Golden Pal the other day , totally out of sync and rightly so. If you want to treated all profiles the same of course you can formulate that request easily on a spreadsheet but it will be totally inaccurate to the true odds. Good luck  |
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3 losers to fund 2 winners so the 6/4 above is correct
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Yep - 6/4 is the answer
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The basic calculation is very basic. 1 divided by the probability. so in this case 1 divided by 2/5 [0.4]
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Yes sorry Pulio if you were asking a straight question then 6/4 obviously the answer , just trying to elaborate as to why knowing that won't benefit you in simple terms.
I need to stop using 10 words when one will suffice |
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Don't berate yourself - Hayden .... I almost replied on similar lines to yourself.
EVERY race being different - Every horse prospects/chance being different - NO mathematical formula/equation can, therefore, ever accommodate, nor predict, as such. Then, I thought - Maybe he just wants to see the (Very) BASIC Mathematical position - so that (in the example above) - If his selection's Odds were Below 6/4 to Place - Then it is under-Valued .... Over 6/4 - Then it is Value - BUT ... ONLY in the BASIC Equation's eyes - taking in NO account of the Horse's Ability or ACTUAL prospects of Placing.  |
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N runners P places (N-P) to P
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