Southwell 2.45

Starlyte – 4/1 general - 5.6 on bf

She won a class 3 NHF race and was then beaten 11l and 16l in listed NHF races.

She had a nice enough run on her hurdling debut in a maiden hurdle finishing 3nd btn 22l having been 8l off the leader at the 2nd last.

On her next start in a similar race she was at the back of the leading pack of 5 as they turned in and was 6l down at the 3rd last, 8l down at the 2nd last and 12l down the last eventually beaten 19l into 4th. That race has worked out well with the winner Skytastic winning a class 2 conditions event on it’s next start and is now rated 134, the second Godrevy Point has since won a similar race to the maiden hurdle,  as has the third and even the 6th won it’s next race.

For her last race she was stepped up into a mares only listed class 3m race with 9 runners and she ran a very interesting race tongue tie on for the first time. Held up in last, fluffed the first, stayed there and was still in last at 4 out in a closely knit field about 6l off the leader. Came under pressure as the field quickened but responded. At the 3rd last she was still about 6l down but has moved into 7th.  At the 2nd last she was still 6l down in 7th. Between the last two you could see the jockey Todd realise he wasn’t going to get any closer since she was outclassed and rather than flogging his horse in a vain attempt to get placed (as the first 4 were being ridden) you could see him accepting his fate when about 8l down and tenderly riding his mount into the last and he was even passed on the run in to be beaten 23 length. The winner has been raised to 130, the second was 134  and is now also 130. The 3rd is now 125 the 4th also 125, and 5th has been raised from 118 to 122 the 6th who was beaten 8l is still on 122. Sweet Street who passed Starlyte on the run in is rated 114 and Marsh Wren who was another 8l in last is still on 116.

Starlyte for her handicap debut has been left on a very generous rating of 98. On the face of it, being beaten 23 lengths over 3 miles with level weights, would put you about 15lb behind the winner which would give Starlyte a rating of 115, so one must assume the handicapper assessed that the runners ran a false race allowing a 98 rated runner to get so close, but still assessed the hcap marks of the other runners as if they ran to form. Interesting.

The handicapper appears to be leaning on the 19l behind Skytastic (gave 7lb) who is now rated 134 after it’s subsequent win. Putting Starlyte on 98 would mean assessing  Skytastic win at about (98+7+15’ish) 119, which means  Skytastic improved 15lb between it’s last two runs, which is possible, but surely Starlyte could also be expected to improve for it’s two hurdle starts, which it’s listed run might indicate.

But with the 1,2,3 and 6th from Skytastic’s race all winning next time out, with the 1st and 2nd winning quite recently on the 13 and 16 March, the handicapper will surely be re-assessing that race and I would expect Starlyte rating to have been raised in BHB/Jockeyclub new handicap ratings which are released on Tuesday.

Maybe my maths are off, but that run in the Listed mares race looks to give her a favourites chance here against much lower rated runners than in her last two runs.