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15 Mar 22 22:21
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Date Joined: 30 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 15,278 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
21 runners in the Fred Winter, so you would have thought that this race was truly run.

Constitution Hill was 14 (fourteen) seconds faster.

Brazil was carrying 2 lb more. Weight for age is 8 lb for 4yo's. Brazil was rated 137.

14 secs = 68 lb over 16.5 furlongs on my figures. That gives Constitution Hill a rating of 195.

No horse is that good, but he did beat JPR One (rated 129) by 57 lengths, so that would give him a rating of 184 on my calculations.

Again, that's implausible. So let's look at the worst case. Compare Constitution Hill's race against the Racing Post's standard time for the 20 furlong mares' hurdle.

That race was 2.4 secs over standard, while Constitution Hill was fast by 4.65 secs. That is a 33 lb advantage to Constitution Hill on my figures, plus 2 lb for carrying 2 lb more. Call it 35 lb.

Maries Rock, the winner of the mares' race, beat Nada To Prada, a 300/1 shot rated 126, by 9.5 lengths, or 8 lb over that trip. So Maries Rock ran to 133. Which gives Constitution Hill a speed figure of 168, eased down.

Honeysuckle is rated 165, but would be getting the mares allowance at Punchestown.

What a contest that would be!
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Report Andrew.in.Sweden March 15, 2022 9:32 PM GMT
Screaming

Honeysuckle would have to concede 3lb to CH at Punchestown
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 15, 2022 9:34 PM GMT
Is that so? Thanks. I'm not half as well informed as I thought I was then.

No wonder Buckley wants to take Honeysuckle on there.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden March 15, 2022 9:36 PM GMT
4 year old allowance

Honeysuckle 11st 7lb
Constitution Hill 11st 4lb

Good luck
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 15, 2022 9:36 PM GMT
I'm struggling to think of a better performance on the clock over hurdles, ever.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 15, 2022 9:37 PM GMT
Constitution Hill is a 5yo.
Report Ibrahima Sonko March 15, 2022 9:37 PM GMT
It was special.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden March 15, 2022 9:41 PM GMT
Constitution Hill is a 5yo.

Oops. Many apologies Screaming
Report Rico-Dangleflaps March 15, 2022 9:57 PM GMT
never understood why people go overboard with times..very fast times will only be reproduced under the same circumstances..ie fast sectionals..certainly doesnt mean the fastest horse in a field will win every time.
constitutional hills race was 3.5 secs faster 1st--2nd hurdle than the champion hurdle as it was run at a furious pace..doesnt mean honeysuckle is inferior.
Report Lee Ho Fooks March 15, 2022 10:06 PM GMT
Interesting race comment about DD. Took keen hold, led, not fluent 1st, not fluent 2nd, joined after 5th, going easily when fell heavily 3 out

Going easily -  really?
Report Rico-Dangleflaps March 15, 2022 10:15 PM GMT
me-not fluent 1st & 2nd..led racing keenly..disp from 4 out.still travelling ok when fell 3 out..
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 15, 2022 10:16 PM GMT
Speed figures are a piece of the jigsaw.

They were really useful thirty years ago, when hardly anyone knew how they were calculated, and people needed top-notch mental arithmetic to work them out even if they did. Calculating them was a LOT of hard work. They gave me an edge, in other words, and they made me a lot of money.

Nowadays it's all common knowledge, and people have these computer thingies to work them out too. I rarely bother with speed figures now. But when you see something like Constitution Hill today, I think it's worth dissecting it, just to make sure that seeing is believing.

It was.
Report duffy March 15, 2022 10:17 PM GMT
Barely lifted his legs at that hurdle, shows why SG was switched, mainly because DD simply could not go up in trip rather than the longer trip suiting DD.
Report strontium March 15, 2022 11:30 PM GMT
Visually, CH today reminded me of Frankel in the Guineas. The way he put 10 lengths into Jonbon coming round the home bend was a sight to behold, and he extended to the line.
Report comingupthehill March 16, 2022 12:15 AM GMT
It was one of the weakest supremes for years. Despite pre race hype.

All of Mullins supreme winners had won a g1/2. Dysart dynamo was a maiden hurdle winner.

Mighty potter had been beat by 2 horses that had gone on to be beat by sir Gerard by more than 50L.

Last years bumper is looking like a poor renewal. Kilcruit has struggled. And the 3rd and 4th look very average losing more than winning.
Constitution hill looks like a good supreme winner but the rest look poor. Jonbon will be a chaser in the future.

Good luck sir Gerard backers in the ballymore. You ll need it.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps March 16, 2022 12:25 AM GMT
All of Mullins supreme winners had won a g1/2. Dysart dynamo was a maiden hurdle winner.

won a gr2 lto.
Report Cauthenmeister March 16, 2022 8:23 AM GMT
Re the DD race comments, three of us watching all agreed it couldn't have finished in the first three the way it was racing.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 16, 2022 9:39 AM GMT
Kilcruit has struggled

Won a 20-runner Punchestown maiden by 21 lengths in a "canter" last time out. Just needed the first-time tongue tie.

And the 3rd and 4th look very average losing more than winning

The third is Kilcruit. The fourth has only had one run over hurdles in its life - won it by 8 lengths. Prior to that it had three starts for Andre Fabre and won the last two.

And, as rico points out, Dysart Dynamo won a Grade 2 lto.

Are you sure you're looking at the correct race, comingupthehill?
Report top2rated March 16, 2022 9:49 AM GMT
comingupthehill's got previous form as well!!!
Report geoff m March 16, 2022 9:52 AM GMT
What of being a poor judge??
Report Storm Alert March 16, 2022 10:34 AM GMT
I hope Constitution Hill goes for the novice's race this season. Plenty of time for us anticipate the clash in next years Champion Hurdle. Honeysuckle keeps getting crabbed (by one idiot in particular} but with the mares allowance finishes her races superbly with that turn of foot she possesses. Constitution Hill was spectacular the way he hurdles and finished the race and the clocks confirmed the performance. Not many Supreme winners go on to win the Champion Hurdle for some reason.
Report duncan idaho March 16, 2022 10:38 AM GMT
21 runners in the Fred Winter, so you would have thought that this race was truly run.


except it wasn't


It was one of the weakest supremes for years. Despite pre race hype.


Laugh


never understood why people go overboard with times


there's like a zillion examples why...that C Hill could run in the 140s on racecourse debut barely turning a hair one of them
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 16, 2022 10:48 AM GMT
21 runners in the Fred Winter, so you would have thought that this race was truly run.


except it wasn't

_________

No argument there. As I said, it would have given Constitution Hill a speed figure of 195(!) if it had been.

That's why I dug right down into the eighth-placed horse in the mares' hurdle, to get Constitution Hill's speed figure as low as I possibly could. And it STILL comes out at 168, eased down.

Astonishing.
Report geoff m March 16, 2022 11:09 AM GMT
Was astonishing Screaming.

Prufrock will be all over this like a rash. Write up in sectional spotlight tomoz.


After going such a strong pace in the Supreme you would have expected a drop of in sectional times from 2 out as compared with the champion hurdle was hotting up off a slow pace.

Honeysuckle bolted away from her field but was still 1.3 seconds (around 6.5 lengths)slower than Constitution from the 2nd last to line.
Report duncan idaho March 16, 2022 11:11 AM GMT
i think for once 'a freak' is an apt description...got a temperament you dream of in a racehorse
Report sageform March 16, 2022 11:26 AM GMT
You have to allow for the ease of the victory as well. I would estimate that Constitution hill could have run at least 5 lengths quicker and still not have been flat out. Time will tell us what he beat but I would be very surprised if he would not have been second at worst in yesterdays Champion hurdle.
Report geoff m March 16, 2022 11:32 AM GMT
the clock says he would have comfortably.

Push button acceleration.
Report howard March 16, 2022 11:32 AM GMT
So you think he would have finished in front of stable companion EpitanteWink  Brave call Grin
Report ImSoLuckyLucky! March 16, 2022 11:36 AM GMT
Beaten her in a gallop last week
Devil
Report howard March 16, 2022 11:37 AM GMT
The VERY BEST  geldings will always thrash even the best mares. The only times  mares have won the champion  where were the Sea Pigeons Night Nurses Monksfields  Istabraqs ?
Report sageform March 16, 2022 11:38 AM GMT
I do and there was a strong rumour yesterday that CH had beaten Epatante in a gallop which seems perfectly believable. When I heard it before the Supreme I thought "Oh yes, what were the weights, distance etc". as I had not been convinced by CH in his previous race and left the Supreme alone.
Report sageform March 16, 2022 11:44 AM GMT
That is a very strong statement howard. Ever heard of Petite Etoile, Enable, Goldikova. Not hurdles but they beat the best Colts as well as geldings. Honeysuckle has dominated 2 years worth of the best geldings in training. CH might beat her but I don't see any other danger on the horizon if she stays in training.
Report howard March 16, 2022 2:49 PM GMT
They beat the best around at the time. Which fillies beat the greatest of last 50 +years ?  Frankel , Sea the Stars , Brigadier Gerard , Mill Reef ,Galileo , Shergar and many more. Think it's zero.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 8, 2022 2:30 PM BST
Jonbon 22 lengths behind Constitution Hill.

Astonishing.
Report impossible123 April 11, 2022 4:46 PM BST
£100k carrot being dangled by 'paddy' for this beast to duel (and win) against Honeysuckle at Punchestown Festival. Are you listening Hendo? Buckley will no hesitation in saying yes. But, Hendo a creature of habit? 

I hope Constitution Hill goes over, and leaves Hendo behind.
Report penzance April 11, 2022 5:04 PM BST
Would be good to see but Honeysuckle's had 15 runs over hurdles
and is a dual Chmpn where Constitution Hill's only had the 3 .
No disgrace if they don't take her on.
Report ashleigh May 26, 2022 5:39 PM BST
Constitution Hill awarded a rating of 170 in the anglo-irish jumps classification, a record high for a novice hurdler hurdle, Honeysuckle given a rating of 165.
Report ashleigh May 26, 2022 5:50 PM BST
Timeform given him a rating of 177p.

hope he matches up to these figures next season.Excited
Report onlooker May 26, 2022 5:57 PM BST
Honeysuckle would Receive 7lb Mares Allowance in a race ...

Making them ...

Honeysuckle - 172

Constitution - 170
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 26, 2022 5:58 PM BST
Constitution Hill, Honeysuckle, Vauban and State Man is a race to savour (and 2 of my favourite hurdlers).
Report Gordon63 May 27, 2022 2:24 PM BST
look its all bollocks!! if timeform was accurate there'd be no bookies!! what's their strike rate - over the course of a year maybe 30-35%? and the ROI probably substantially less because their top 2 rated are regularly overbet..

and don't get me started on handicappers - the differential between Irish and British form is all you need to know there!

you can show me a 100 stopwatches and I'm not going to believe for one second (!) that Constitution Hill (winner of a p2p and 3 novice hurdlers) would beat Honeysuckle (unbeaten in 1 p2p and 16 hurdles, many of them Grade 1s including 2 Champion Hurdles at Festival) over a 2m trip with the 7lb allowance, now that opinion may change come next March (still wouldn't surprise me if Honeysuckle was retired beforehand) but for now one has potential to be very good, the other is the best National Hunt mare since Dawn Run and very possibly even better than she was as it's impossible (despite what 'official' figures would have you believe to compare horses from completely different eras)...
Report jerseyboy May 27, 2022 2:45 PM BST
If Honeysuckle was retired, what price the beast for next years champion hurdle, imo would go straight to odds on.  IMO the beast will win whether Honeysuckle turns up or not.
.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 21, 2023 10:20 AM GMT
JPR One, fifth beaten 57 lengths by Constitution Hill in that 2022 Supreme Novices' Hurdle, had its first run since in a handicap at Taunton yesterday. And it duly sluiced up off a mark of 127.

Constitution Hill's win last year was the best performance by a hurdler ever. The clock says so, and the form book too.
Report geoff m March 21, 2023 4:19 PM GMT
still think the same Gordon??
Report brigust1 March 22, 2023 9:48 AM GMT
Good Morning, Geoff. It is good that we all have opinions to discuss. As far as times go they are used when they are there but ignored when they are not. Secretariat ran amazing times but when Flightline came along they were ignored. When Timeform were asked about Frankel not running fast times all they said was "Invisible Man holds the course record for Ascot's straight mile and Frankel is 2 stone better than him". As I said, they use them when they are there but ignore them if they are not. I ignore them other than it tells me how a race was run. There are far too many variables. Ask the Clerk of the course what the going is and he will give you three different measurements. And that is just the going. How can anyone trust a 'time' when no-one knows where the fastest strip of the racecourse is?

I think CH is by far the best hurdler we have seen this decade and he has the potential, given the opportunity, to challenge for being the greatest of all time. But even then it is an opinion, it is not fact. No-one knows who the best horses are until they meet each other and even then there may be conjecture.
Report steerforth March 22, 2023 1:12 PM GMT
Screaming - re your comments about speed figures becoming common knowledge to the extent that they are not as useful as they were 20 years ago. Are you saying that speed figures are now an essential component of markets every day in every race? My perception is that markets are usually fairly predictable from what can be expected from the form book and other more traditional approaches, (at least for early shows before the inside track comes into play). Those predictions (on my part) don't take account of speed figures as outlying data. Am I missing something here?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 22, 2023 2:50 PM GMT
A very fair comment, steerforth. There's really no way of being certain, is there? If nothing else, there's not just one set of speed figures set in stone. A horse's price might be reflecting Topspeed's headline speed figure in the Post, for instance, as that's what everyone sees. But if you were to dig down a bit further, you might be suspicious of the Topspeed figure for all sorts of reasons (e.g., Topspeed might have used the same going allowance for the chase and hurdle course, or straight track and round track). Or maybe you've got your own sets of standard times, as I used to have, which might offer very different speed figures.

As an example of how hard it is to disentangle what is going on, my bet in the Taunton race I mentioned above - the one won by JPR One on Monday - was a lay of Libberty Hunter at 3.75.

Selection
Odds    Stake (£)    Bid type    Placed    Profit/Loss (£)
Libberty Hunter    3.75    200.00    Lay   
20-Mar-23 15:41
200.00
*Average odds:  On  Off                   
Back subtotal:    0.00
Lay subtotal:    200.00
Market subtotal:    200.00
Commission @ 2%:    4.00
Net Market Total:    196.00

Now, I mentioned to Alan the Beard before the race that I was laying the horse because its hurdle runs had all been poor times - even its best Topspeed figure (adjusted for the weights carried on Monday) still left it 9 lb behind JPR One's figure behind Constitution Hill in the Supreme. But there were other reasons for laying it - I like to use more than just speed figures before having a bet. For one thing it had hung when winning at Chepstow, and for another it looked a right mess in the paddock. So who knows what caused it to finish last? Its poor speed figure? A possible physical problem which causes it to hang? Possible slapdash care in the yard? It's hard to disentangle.

But I've left the best bit till last - it actually shortened up further in the betting after I'd laid it!. Which suggests that you're right - speed figures aren't being fully reflected in the market. Some of the comments on this thread alone would support that thesis. But equally it also suggests that punters aren't taking note of worrying Form Book comments either ('hung left'). And crucially that the market is no longer being determined by a handful of propunters betting with the on-course books at a place like Taunton on a Monday afternoon. Thirty years ago the paddock judges would have made sure Libberty Hunter would have gone on the drift, but those punters are mostly sitting at home now, staring at numbers on a screen.

Too long;didn't read: You're right, steerforth!
Report steerforth March 22, 2023 4:39 PM GMT
Andy Norman's interview on Star Sports points out the edge he gets from being on course. In particular, the benefit of seeing a fit horse run badly that gets reported as having needed the run. Of course there's a rare skill in being able to tell.
Report steerforth March 22, 2023 4:43 PM GMT
Adam Norman not Andy Norman. Apologies
Report CagliariG March 22, 2023 4:50 PM GMT
Speed figures over years are a complete and utter waste of time and effort for obvious reasons e.g no two going reports can reflect exactly the actual,rail movements,pace of a race etc etc,particularly over jumps.

Hard to argue though that CH could have set quicker figures than he has and will do in the future if asked.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves March 22, 2023 4:55 PM GMT
JPR One was an example of that sort of thing. It was the first really fit Tizzard horse I'd seen all season, though that might have been because it's a proper athletic hurdling type. Everything else in the yard looks like a great big slow boat of a chaser. Inevitably the report in the paper the next day quoted Tizzard as saying the horse had a good blow afterwards and needed the run, and they're looking forward to going chasing with it!

Ah well. It's all about opinions. If we all thought the same, there wouldn't be a betting market.
Report CagliariG March 22, 2023 5:12 PM GMT
I am in no doubt CH could have gone 3 secs minimum quicker if asked or needed which makes him exceptional at this stage when compared with the Hurdling greats,running him in the flat Gold Cups would not be daft this year?
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