Paul Nicholls drop in form

Hes been on holiday and the ones left in charge have fooked it up.

it was reported that most of the horses had their flu jabs at the end of dec

The flu jabs are the likely culprit. They have either given a higher dose or the affects have lasted longer. Mind you, not many of the first division have run yet this year so the weekend might tell us more.

cant even win a 2 horse race with a 1-2 shot ,horses running too bad to be true ,getting beat long way in most cases.

Another shocker

86 days off for this Siroco , i reckon this is the one . Thrown in over fences possibly

didn't pick up did it

Horses don’t look fit

Disappointing considering how exposed the winner is, it never looked happy to me

24 runners without a winner
13 priced 7/2 or under (many of them favourites)

when you think of it, it seems nuts that they get jabbed at all. These trainers hardly have a horse running before the Cheltenham November meeting then half of their horses can't run because the ground is "like a road"/"like a bog". Then they jab them and they run rubbish for a month then it's Festival time and half of them get thrashed anyway. For some owners, their season is only, effectively 5 or 6 weeks pre-Xmas and the same from February onwards. If jabbing them causes such a drop in performance, where is the advantage? And if there is one, Why not administer it in October? Must last for more than a few months?

most racehorse have a flu jab twice a year.

Not saying its not right but this flu jab rationale is taking on the shape of a confirmation bias.

didn't know that Ashleigh. However if the effect of it is to produce a strike rate of 3 form 53 (Nichols present figures), I'd be having a re-think. I still can't see why they give it during the middle of the NH season

Said it before - but I'd be staggered if any (big) yard jabbed the whole yard simultaneously - although I appreciate if is starting to look that way with PFN!

Also partially agree with steerforth (about the danger of confirmation bias) - but if you're up for the theory/conspiracy, I'd guess being PFN's travel agents has its benefits, as knowing when he will be on holiday might be a helpful pointer.

Why are these horses still going off so short. Thankfully saved my money on those three.

Might it pay to back all these losers next time out?

Some will drop a bit and might show a bit of improvement.

Is there a crhonological list of these runners out there?

Yeah I’ve added most of them to my tracker for that very reason.

over 200 pts up in feb horses that ran within 30days of the supposed jab - horses thats run withinlast 90 days by the way

ooooossssss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FrkEDe6Ljqs

or was it 90

this has happened before of course but seldom in such a dramatic way. I well remember a day some 10-15 years ago when the late, and much missed, Richard Barber told me to avoid Nicholls horses for 2 weeks after a flu vaccination and none of them won in that time. The big question is why run them? I can see a handicap drop as a benefit but how does it affect the horses to run when not 100% healthy? The most alarming one yesterday was Jeremy Pass who had looked like a progressive young horse but stopped to nothing yesterday and was pulled up.

Maybe it’s just like a bad batch of vaccines or they’ve altered the ingredients slightly.
I’ve had the human equivalent for many years with various symptoms afterwards due to these minor alterations with some years getting the flu within a few days, and other times staying fit as a fiddle.

I fancy Kapcorse in the 15.30 at Sandown tomorrow. Backed him last time at Donny when withdrawn.At present 7s or so and I can see Tom Segal or Paul Kealy picking him and going off shorter. Obviously now open myself to being totally wrong but that's racing.

What puzzles me a bit is that I don't know if other stables do this flu-jabbing as a matter of course? If not then is this flu endemic to his stables?  And if so, why? All seems a bit odd to me.  And he had a shocking Cheltenham last year so this dip in form doesn't bode too well.

Oh dear - not a great start for a consistent 2nd Fav.
Beaten a distance

Last 14 days 6.67%, 3 chase winners and no hurdlers past the post first.

Let's hope Dolos can turn that around today. Form figures of 2112 in the race, Cobden was on Tamaroc in the 5 days but switched to Dolos who is 15lb lower than when 2nd last year. Must go close. 10.0 on here is very good value imo and r/f on both the runners is not a waste of money.

Taking a chance with Kapcorse at such a high price. Should be able to lay off at 5 or so if It stays in contention most of the way.

Getting very worrying when Harvey - the man who sees nothing - has even noticed.

@sageform Nichols has no luck in that race 10 runners and no winners.

Interesting but I don't see how that affects the result today. Perhaps they always struggle from the flu vacc at this meeting?

It means Nicholls through the flu vaccine or just training can’t get a horse ready for this race with any confidence in comparison to something like a King George where he has a good record.

Dolos breaks the chain

Excellent that's that dip done and dusted then. Dolos 10/1 winner in the 2nd race Sandown.

His back then!
Must of just been his lesser horses that got jabbed late.

I’m interested in Greanateen on Sunday now.

I will stick with Kapcorse for today and see how the others run.

Still stopping quickly apart from Dolos.

Another donkey out of condition tires badly at Musselburgh.

Yeah still not right. Dolos last run the week before Christmas.

Funny comment from Nevison before the last at Muss. - "hard to see why the Nichols fav is drifting"!
Is he not paying attention? Or laying them?

Yes, That comment startled me.

Nevo is like bir h. Clueless naive and gullible. Thick as well.

What amazes me is that Nicholls even bothers to travel to Musselburgh.  What is it from Somerset - an 800 mile round trip?
You'd think they'd at least have half a chance.
Says a lot for Musselburgh that he does and full marks to them for attracting the top trainers. etc;

I thought DN previously worked in merchant banking or perhaps I picked up wrong?

Don’t know Mr Nevison but he strikes me as a good guy. Somebody you could enjoy a pint with.

Maybe his not interested in trainer form. I know some tipsters who don’t pay any attention to the jockey and it’s just all about the horse! It baffles me

Another one falls out the tv screen.

Orses not going a yard

Whats reason for the non runners at Muss ?

going change from decs

Current investigations are focusing on feed after Nicholls recalled that a similar quiet spell for the stable in January 2016 was down to low potassium and calcium content in the hay.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-10486977/Champion-trainer-Paul-Nicholls-checking-feed-stable-slump-form.html

you can look at feed ,you can get the best vets ,specialists money can buy ...........none will work shirley pumkin  would have realised  by now the only way to change thier fortunes is for someone on here to start  NICHOLLS IS FINNISH THREADD  never fails!

Yeah, a bit like the Jim Crowley one of last summer after which he rode winner after winner.

I did a multiple on his Newbury runners today. He has to start winning again so it might as well be today...