Lay Math Help

I'm too stupid to understand the question 

‹ back to topics and make it snappy!

I think the answer is yes in theory, you can make a profit laying, but when would you ever get this scenario?

If punter is making profit from fixed odds, say 7/1, traditionally that will be 9.0 on here so miles away from what you need to lay (which is 7.2 at 10% less than 7/1 fixed) Presumably this is about a popular tipster and as sheep follow the price over shortens creating lay value...we get that in the UK a bit.

Then you have the commision blocking you from a profit...so the 7.2 becomes 7.0 as a break even mark etc.

So yes in theory you could imo but a tip at 7/1 can only be layed at 6.8 before you start making any margin is pretty grim?

@itsmeswaddle - Yeah, in short, laying the overcorrection.

I'm a little lost with your example. How does it get from 9.0 to 7.2 so quickly? Wouldn't the initial 10.5% bring it from $9 to $8 as the point, and then lay it under odds from there (and then needing to factor into commission). ??

As for the frequency of it, I've got the records of the 5k bets saved, however I've been test-tracking this for the month of November.

Of 123 bets the punter has published, 28 of them (22.7%) have dropped more than 15% compared to BSP (shortened by an avg of 26%). On a $100 liability, thus far have returned profits of $453.74 (after 10% commission). Very, very small sample size, would like the qualifying bet number to exceed 500 before putting real $ down.

plus @ItsMeSwaddle - thank you for taking the time to reply, its appreciated.

I was basically trying to create an example that you CANT lay the fixed odds the original punter is taking to make his money?

If you can lay because your are on on course book or whatever then great, or I have the wrong end of the stick then fair enough.

Say for example here in the UK if a horse is fixed odds $8... for me to LAY that horse I cant lay $8...I would have to lay somewhere in the region of $9....

(To do with fixed odds being approx a 120% book with a 20% overround v Betfair a 102% book.)

Then say I do have to lay way over the fixed odds like the example above, that is a very long way from the price you NEED to lay just to break even?

If he is making money taking 7/1 fixed, you have to approximately laying no more than 6.2/1 just to break even?

No problems about the reply, hope it doesnt put you off.

Luke,

matt is totally correct here. laying on betfair involves a significantly higher price, especially at higher odds, as this is where the bookmakers increase their margin due to most punters wanting to back the favorites.

I think the only profitable lay strategy is on favorites as this is where bookmaker and betfair prices converge. think of what the average joe punter loves to back and then lay him. usually it trainers, jockeys and weirdly there will be horses names which lots of drunken punters love. a typical UK example of this was a horse called BEAVER PATROL a few years back!

also there is a legendary horse called YOURHOLIDAYISOVER. Lay him in running with half a mile to go. this is a CERTAIN winning system

Hi @itsmeswaddle

Re: "If he is making money taking 7/1 fixed, you have to approximately laying no more than 6.2/1 just to break even?"

Yes that's fine, understood and agreed on that point.

On my small sample size, his bets have been shortening by on average 26%. So on average, punter is taking $7 and his bet is jumping at $5.2. Seeing as though he's winning at 10%, lay at odds of under $6.3 ($7 - 10%) would be breakeven prior to commission?

Wouldn't blindly lay every selection, some have drifted after placement. The punter bets early, giving me plenty of time to set some parameters around if/when to follow with a lay. I understand simply can't lay 100% of the bets punter is taking (he's winning at 10% over 5k bets), but being selective.... ?

Wicked Willy and Get On The Yager were 2 other examples of horses to lay on Celtic's "drunken punters" laying system. Both horses usually got very well backed just before the off.

undertaker.

we will clean up on hot saturday afternoons, when the 'golden gargle' is flowing at the racetrack

@Luke, this sounds really positive based on what you have said.

Feedback on how you go, sounds good.

PS if you are sure your sample size is big enough, and the figure is indeed 10% try to take emotion and personal judgement out as much as you can imo, based on what youve said its a funny game but its imposs no to make money.

When ive been "selective" over the years its made results worse. You might be a better judge of course , but you get what i mean, GL

Impossible not to make money* based on what you said.

Luke do abit of homework.
Go back through the Form, and identify those horses that tend to go to the front early.
Then back these at fixed odds, and lay them back early in the race.
A more simple strategy than what you’re proposing, in my simple opinion.