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TOP3MAN
30 May 21 12:00
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Date Joined: 08 Jan 12
| Topic/replies: 4,501 | Blogger: TOP3MAN's blog
I'm going to trail this for a few months after following and recording jockey performances in which some favourable jocks aren't particually profitable to follow in on, because they manage to finish down the field.

I have an league table in which I update daily and with that in mind I will place back one of the top jockey at that meeting rides as per the table.

The staking plan is based using a mythlogical £500 bank and only 7.5% of the bank will be staked per a selection. The stakes stays the same until the next timeframe is reached, so £37.50 is the stake until £750.00 is reached or £250.00 reached the other way then stakes will be reduced.

Winning bets will be subject to 5% reduction and recorded at BFSP.

Meetings are flat only

The milestones are

250.00     7.5%     18.75
500.00     7.5%     37.50
750.00     7.5%     56.25
1,000.00     7.5%     75.00
1,500.00     7.5%     112.50
2,000.00     7.5%     150.00
3,000.00     7.5%     225.00
5,000.00     7.5%     375.00
10,000.00     7.5%     750.00

Day one - Just Navan Today - William Jame Lee (Ranked 8th) has seven rides today - Princess fifi is interesting in the maiden, whilst Mother Earth could also go close. However the Handicap 17.15 is the one that is of interest - NAILED ON - Which should be a big price after a laboured effort previously, however the time before under today's jock he was 4th off 59. Today he runs of 54 having been kindly dropped of the back of the poor effort last time. only 9 runs could have more to come and the ground with some give in should help him.
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Report 11kv May 30, 2021 1:04 PM BST
Watching with interest gl.
Report GEORGE.B May 30, 2021 1:07 PM BST
Sounds interesting, good luck TOP3MAN
Report posy May 30, 2021 2:02 PM BST
good luck be interested to watch your progress
Report TOP3MAN May 30, 2021 7:19 PM BST
Thanks Guys.

End of Day 1

NAILED ON - 4th - Place bet secured. £37.50 * 3.8 = 142.50 *95% = £135.38

Solid start

Bank £635.38

Busy day tomorrow, hopefully can bring up milestone 1
Report 11kv May 30, 2021 8:03 PM BST
Good start, led for a long way. wd
Report Manoleeds May 30, 2021 8:28 PM BST
Would also be interesting if you keep a tally of the position if you'd backed win only.
Report TOP3MAN May 30, 2021 8:42 PM BST
manoleeds - Yes can do - using thr same staking plan. I can kkep track of the win only as well. makes sense.
Report TOP3MAN May 30, 2021 11:44 PM BST
Day 2

Chelmesford - James Doyle (Ranked 2)

Dig two looks a nice type, but has a penalty to carry, however should win, whilst the Haggas runner for the Queen looks a little bit of a dodgepot. SHIMMERING DAWN however is very effective around here having won 4 times, is dropping down the weights and ran in an hot contest here latest when sent off at 2-1. Drawn 2 and with James doyle in the saddle again, I be disapointed if not going close.

Leicester - Daniel Tudhope (Ranked 1)

As always Tudhope has a strong book of rides. a Uk Debutant whom the ground conditions could be changing against, One in a seller for his good Mate o'Meara, Star Shield whom needs to drop a few pounds, Celestrial Queen who will be popular, but isnt anything above average. NELSON GRAY is the choice of Tudhope in the 3.25 and this very impressive scorer at Sandown was subjected to too much daylight last time out at Goodwood under David Egan. Higher in the weights, I feel there is more to come and wouldnt be suprised to see pattern class races on the agenda.

Windsor - Hollie Doyle (Ranked 3)

Hollie Doyle has a few good rides on this bank holiday and is clearly here to ride the retained horse Faisal for whom could be ahead of the handicapper on return. However that runner is likely to be short and needs to prove as effective on turf after 271 days off, but obviously in the right hand being by Golden Horn and trained by Gosdon. The Sprint however for Micahel Dodds she rides JAWAAL who is a strong traveller and caught the eye last time out at York. Sure to come on for that outing, The dodds runner can take advanatage of being dropped to a class 3 and drawn to get the toe into the race from the pace setting Just Glamours in the 3.20. Gaius is interesting in the maiden, while Devils club is sure to have been given the low down by Tom who has lost the ride today.

Redcar - Paul Hanaghan (Ranked 7)

Maywake has a interesting pedigree and the principal in the maiden have had many chances, so wouldnt be suprised if Fahey had found an opening. Ineternational Boy will be ready for handicaps after this run and has the visor on after running green, there are some nice types against him here. The two handicappers are the interesting ones. Hartwood ran a cracker in a better race then he contests here today, but something is just telling me that the step up in trip isnt the ideal solution. JACINTA DE VEGA on stable debut is my pick in the 5.15. Transfered from Ralph Beckett and of a mark of 74 and maybe over a shorter trip then Ideal, I see this one going from an handy position and potentially outstaying his rivals.

Roscommon - Seamie Heffernan (Rank 6)

Doesnt have a strong set of rides tomorrow night, but one sticks out and that HARVARD in the 7.15. Beaten twice at odds-on and maybe not in whats seems like strong maidens, but after a winter, I expect this one may well have grown up as was quite raw as a 2yo. Be Suprised if this one is beaten far.
Report Tiger Tiger May 30, 2021 11:45 PM BST
Good luck TOP3MAN.
Report General Midwinter May 30, 2021 11:45 PM BST
Interesting thread - best of luck with it.
Report ged May 31, 2021 9:51 AM BST
Good luck with it. Hope you do keep going with it for a few months, even if it starts going down the toilet. Most people who post these these sort of threads stop as soon as they're not being successful.
Report jumper3 May 31, 2021 9:54 AM BST
Good luck. I have failed miserably whenever I have tried to place back. This looks like it has real potential. Thanks for sharing.
Report posy May 31, 2021 11:00 AM BST
Interested to know if you're setting any minimum price when betting your selections and just to be clear would you mind confirming that the league table of jockeys you refer to is your 'opinion' and not one based on any specific criteria.
Report PHS May 31, 2021 1:22 PM BST
Interesting summaries whatever the outcome Top3man. Thanks.
Report TOP3MAN May 31, 2021 1:33 PM BST
Posy I made a list of 55 jockeys based on experience, one I've backed to success previously and ones who I like their style.

I then started up an spreadsheet macro in which it analyse their book of rides and then based on their results to find which jocks consistently ran to market expectations or didn't. I update this daily then decided that I would use this to pick a jockey rides to look at backing to place each day. So it changes if a jock starts to go out of form.

It might be 90% horse and 10% rider, but when your confidence is down u make wrong decisions and in a sport that a split second u can make the wrong choice, the jock can be the reason for a poor finishing position.

The league table changes daily so Tudhope won't always be ranked 1, however he has been I the top 5 for quite sometime at the moment.

Hopefully I haven't  missed his ride of the day as he is already on the score board.
Report TOP3MAN May 31, 2021 1:36 PM BST
The staking as to whatever milestone has been achieved at the end of day for the next one.

So if I breacgvthe 750.00 today, the stakes per selection will be 7.5% of the milestone achieved

So 7 5% of 750.00 =56.25 per selection
Report jumper3 May 31, 2021 3:35 PM BST
Nelson Gay was Kieran Shoemark in the end, a point I didn't appreciate until the commentator went through the jockeys mid race. I can only assume Tudhope is injured/couldn't get to the track. It's an unlikely event when you are forming something around jockeys. Betfair, the exchange anyhow, still had Tudhope as the jockey, on the card.
Report second again May 31, 2021 3:52 PM BST
I think they said Tudhope had banged his knee coming out off the stalls earlier,so has been stood down for the rest of the day.
Report TOP3MAN May 31, 2021 4:24 PM BST
Tudhope was injured in the 2.15 today so didn't ride.

I've done well to avoid Hollies placers so far. But that will happen. Couldn't miss with James Doyle however
Report posy May 31, 2021 5:45 PM BST
Many thanks for the explanations .Think you misunderstood my first question ;was trying to establish if you'd consider backing a selection at odds on.
Report TOP3MAN May 31, 2021 6:10 PM BST
Yes I would. There is no price minimum unless I thought it was to short for the risk
Report TOP3MAN June 1, 2021 1:11 AM BST
Not a great day 2 - with only one place back hitting the target and as James doyle had 100% return on places today I couldnt fail, while on the other hand couldnt win in Ireland and the big drifting Harvard (priced 5/4 Last night) reared up leaving the stalls and then ran into about 4 horses out the back and was last turning in (race over). Hanaghan 2/5 (not mine), Hollie Doyle 4/7 (not mine) & Danny Tudhope 1/3 (didnt ride mine as injuryed on ride number 3).

So Shimmering Dawn £37.50 x 1.92 * 95%  = £68.30 - 4 losers (£150) = Day 2 return -£81.70

Running total = £553.68

If backing them to Win - 0/6 so far, would yield a loss of £225.00. Running total £275.00

Jockeys for courses tomorrow

Marco Ghiani - Brighton (7 rides) - Current ranking 3rd

Rides a couple for Tony Carroll including the course specialist Pour La Victorie. Also he rides 2 for Caroline Scott tomorrow and one The Jeanie Geanie really catches the eye back at Brighton. There is also the fact he has a Godolphin horse at Brighton to ride, such is his creditianls these days. Dawn View is sure to be popular having won here last week, but isn't one to totally trust in following up at a short price. THE GEANIE JEANIE is the selection in this one. Good course form, yard in form, Jockey will no doubt lose claim soon, so that 3lb is valuable and mark of 67 is a career low.

James Sullivan - Redcar (4 Rides) - Current ranking 6th

Not the strongest of books. The Brazen one has no chance on basis of novice runs, could go the handicap route now, so suprised to see involved in this. O'Reily's Pass keeps dropping in the weights and the change in ground conditions to a more firm surface will hopefully bring some improvement, so could be one at a big price to claim a place. Freewheelin is in a low maiden handicap, but will really need an improvement over the further trip. ARTHUR NORSE ran with credit here a couple of runs back off 59 - Flopped on the fibresand when sent off favourite. James Sullivan can do low weights and the Barron runner has been dropped 5lbs and drop to 7F from April run and the blinkers, I would say this is Sullivan best ride.

James Doyle - Leicester (5 Rides) - Current Ranking 1st

Primo for a decent 2yo trainer, but this looks a tricky race with top yards contesting it.Neptune Legend 2nd on debut but didnt look that forward, will no doubt get the assistance from the saddle. Red Oktober is on a winning mark and returning from break, does go well fresh and won over CD, has to give weight away.Ocean Eyes isnt for me, while the Thundrer is on a fact finding mission after change of hands and being gelded. I expect NEPTUNE LEGEND will go close again and looks the Doyler best chance.

Shane Crosse - Tipperary ( 2 Rides) - Current Ranking 15th

This lad is impressing me at the moment and while Port Philip has a lot to learn after a very green debut, the other ride JON RIGGENS knows it job, ran well last time out only finding one to good, that was a big improvement from debut run and the drop back to 5F seemed to suit and had some rivals behind that day. 

Rob Hornby - Lingfield (5 Rides) - Current Ranking 11th

Back from injury and riding well, Rob Hornby has a couple for Balding that should go well and Bashful was highly considered, while the shorter priced runner for the yard is expected to improve for the step up in trip. However the 7.50 ELEKTRONIC stepping back to 6F is the choice on Handicap debut. the run at Windsor wasnt devoid of promise after being gelded and is very much expected to improve now back 6F and in an handicap

Callum Sheppard - Yarmouth (5 Rides) - Current Ranking 5th


Pax Britannica needs to prove as effective on turf, whilst Molly Mai is on last winning mark but isnt always easy to call right. Capla Berry likes it here but could be handicapped up to best mark. CRANE is the selection as the race he was sent of fav for, the winner has franked the form and I expect more having had that run under the belt.
Report jumper3 June 1, 2021 7:30 AM BST
Topman, many thanks. Will follow again. No attempt to rain on your parade but here are the race times, if anyone wants them. Good luck today.

1.45 Redcar ARTHUR NORSE
2.45 Brighton THE GEANIE JEANIE
2.00 Leicester NEPTUNE LEGEND
6.10 Tipperary JON RIGGENS
7.50 Lingfield ELEKTRONIC
8.30 Yarmouth CRANE
Report posy June 1, 2021 10:38 AM BST
thanks jumper;that's very helpful
Report TOP3MAN June 2, 2021 12:18 AM BST
Another tough Day - Will update in the morning and put the selections up

Tomorrow jocks

The Curragh - Shane Crosse (3 Rides) - Current ranking 10th
Ayr - Paul Hanagan (4 Rides) - Current Ranking 7th
Kempton - James Doyle (5 Rides) - Current ranking JT 1st
Nottingham - Hollie Doyle (6 Rides) Current ranking Jt 1st
Ripon - David Allan (6 Rides) - Current Ranking 9th
Report TOP3MAN June 2, 2021 8:08 AM BST
15.55 Tanasoq - could be first of the bridle but has been responding well for pressure. Hopefully Carlisle run hasn't left Mark as was looked after that day with the idea another chance would be coming along soon.

14.05 Rainbow Mirage - should won at chepstow, but didn't have something strong enough to carry into the race and then worried out of it. Brighton didn't suit and losing margin is overlooked as got stopped at vital moment jarring momentum in process.

17.40 Tipperary Jack- tricky customer who goes well here. Doyle will need to work cover from wide draw and deliver in his usual fashion. Handicapped to go well

18.55 impeller - found himself back further then ideal last time and worked into the race from off the pace. Drawn 5 tonight, should find himself in a better position and the impression I got was coming into his own.

17.30 Romantic proposal- everything points to step up in trip last time out, travelling strongly throughout just ran out of racing ground in a strongly run listed race. Is up to this level and likes the curragh.
Report TOP3MAN June 2, 2021 8:17 AM BST
Stakes lowered after -62.71 recorded yesterday and falling back below the £500 mark.
Report TOP3MAN June 3, 2021 12:26 AM BST
Another tough day that promised so much.

Will update in the morning.

4 flat cards tomorrow

Tomorrow jocks

Leopardstown - Shane Crosse (4 rides) - CR 10th
Chelmesford - Marco Ghiani (2 Rides) - CR 4th
Hamilton - Paul Hanagan (3 Rides) - CR 6th
Thirsk - David Allan (6 Rides) - CR 3rd
Report TOP3MAN June 3, 2021 6:46 AM BST
David Allan 5/6 Yesterday on making the frame - Yes I picked the only one not to, but it wasnt the wrong choice (well it was), it was just given a shocker. -£18.75
James Doyle 1/4 Yesterday on making the frame - Pick finished 4th, just getting ran out of it late on. -£18.75
Hollie Doyle 2/6 Yesterday on making the frame - Selection ran poorly for Hollie, well beaten in 6th -£18.75
Shane Crosse 1/3 Yesterday on making the frame - Success as Romantic Proposal runs on strongly to claim a close 2nd. £18.75 * 1.54 * 95% = +£27.43
Paul Hanagan 2/4 Yesterday on making the frame - Success as Tansooq runs on to grab a well beaten 3rd. £18.75 * 0.81 * 95% = +£14.43

Days total = -£14.40

Running total = £471.57

Winners wise = 0 - laying system found lol
Report TOP3MAN June 3, 2021 8:20 AM BST
1.35 COOPERATION (Hanagan) - A Novice event in which all have run. Fahey runner more then some in terms of runs, but since last run has been gelded and with 3 places on offer is the pick for this jock.

4.50 RULING (Crosse) - Beaten by The Mediterran last time who in turn was beaten by a few of these on debut, however that was a rapid improvement from debut by Aiden runner. Ruling shouldn't reverse the form, but Aiden horse isnt certain to follow up the running as doesnt look as straight forward as Ruling who is improving with each run and looks highly likely to give its running again.

5.30 THOMAS DANIELL (Ghiani) - Ran well latest at Brighton, Same Mark and has form on the all weather, well drawn in 5 and looks the best chance for the Williams / Ghiani combo

5.45 STRONGBOWE (Allan) - Went well two runs back. Drying ground suits, didnt act last time, Drawn 14 will go forward and hopefully will stick there.
Report PHS June 3, 2021 5:50 PM BST
WD today.
Report TOP3MAN June 4, 2021 12:25 AM BST
Thanks

David Allan 3/6 - Selection Placed = +65.90
Paul Hanagan 2/3 - Selection placed = +0.75
Shane Crosse 3/4 - Selection Placed = +25.83
Marco Ghiani 0/2 - Selection unplaced = -18.75

Daily Total = +73.70

Running total = 545.27 (Stakes back up)

Goodwood - Laura Pearson (1 ride) - Ranked 15th
Epsom - Oisin Murphy (4 rides) - Ranked 1st
Catterick - David Allan ( 4 Rides) - Ranked 2nd
Doncaster - Paul Hangan (3 rides) - Ranked 3rd
Down Royal - Shane Crosse (1 ride) - Ranked 4th
Bath - Luke Morris (2 rides) - Ranked 49th

Selection up in the morning
Report jumper3 June 4, 2021 7:08 AM BST
Well done. Really enjoying this. It's great to see new angles explored here.
Report TOP3MAN June 4, 2021 8:28 AM BST
Oisin Murphy - Blue Cup (3.45 Epsom) - Eye cacther here two runs back when denied a run at vital times.

Laura Pearson - Fairy Dust (7.00 Goodwood) - Jockeys only ride, but looking at it, there is nothing to suggest it hasnt got a chance. The better ground will certainly suit on handicap debut. The 5lbs of the back from the jock is vital and the track looking at the horse profile could well suit.

David Allan - Shesaheart (4.50 Catterick) - Placed twice at the course already in her short career. David Allan needs to start turning these placed efforts into wins, but at the moment the horses he are riding are very much running for him, he is in good form despite finding trouble and I expect this one will go well

Luke Morris - Yagan (6.40 Bath) - Won well last time, the sort to be mapped out in running up a sequence and is well in at the weights for this quick turn around run.

Paul Hanagan - Twilight Song (6.53 Doncaster) - Went well here in a class 2 as a 2yo and has since fallen down the weights. change back to better ground will suit and a mark of 67 should have a say

Shane Crosse - Mellifaous (6.35 Down Royal) - Only Ride, but everything this lad is touching is turning to gold. The horse went well in a big handicap latest. Not the most straight forward, but this jock is among the best riding and really gets them running.
Report TOP3MAN June 5, 2021 1:20 PM BST
Update yesterday later on as I went outlast night - Just selection today

Today's jocks

14.15 Hollie DOyle (ranked 1st) - Musselbrugh - Muntadab - can go better then the 5th in a 0-95 here
15.35 Oisin Orr (Ranked 7th) - Listowel - Kodiqueen - Improve for today's conditions, should go well
15.40 Callum Sheppard (ranked 4th) - Doncaster - OZ Legend - Should be hard to beat
17.50 Oisin Murphy (Ranked 5th) - Epsom - Kimifive - This one catches the eye and reckon its got a great chance
19.15 Nicole Currie (Ranked 12th) - Lingfield - Burtonlodge beauty - Penny dropped in 2nd part of race, enough to suggest will have come on a lot for run
19.30 Laura Pearson (Ranked 14th) - Chepstow - Glamours Creascent - Gone well here before, drying conditions should suit and feather weight, looks primed.
Report TOP3MAN June 5, 2021 1:30 PM BST
yesterday results.

Oisin Murphy 2/5 - Selection placed as Blue Cup romped home - £37.50 * 1.24 *95% = £44.18
Luke Morris 1/2 - Seelection placed as Yagan was a comfortable winner = £37.50 * 0.13 * 95% = £4.63
Paul Hanagan 0/3 - Selection NR
Shane Crosse 0/1 - Selection Unplaced -37.5
Laura Pearson 0/1 - Selection unplaced - 37.5
David Allan 1/4 - Selection unplaced -37.50

Daily Total = -63.69

Running total 481.58 (stakes backdown)

Enjoy the sunshine all
Report TOP3MAN June 13, 2021 10:04 AM BST
Back after a week break. Expanding the selection pot to pick one from the top 3 rider currently at each track.

Top 3 jocks at each track with rides (sunday)

Doncaster

James Doyle - Currently Ranked 1st
William Buick - Currently Ranked 6th
Danny Tudhope - Currently Ranked 8th

Sailsbury

Oisin Murphy - Currently Ranked 3rd
Silveste De Sousa - Currently Ranked 9th
Hollie Doyle - Currently Ranked 10th

Gowan Park

Wayne Loran - Currently Ranked 2nd
William James Lee - Currently Ranked 4th
Shane Crosse - Currently Ranked 7th

Back with the selection from each track.
Report TOP3MAN June 13, 2021 11:59 AM BST
Neptune Seas 2.45 - William Buick - I Like the breeding of this runner for Buick who has a good book of rides today at Donnie

Spirit Mixer 5.10 - Oisin Murphy - Ran 3rd here last time, but showed up strongly for a long way before hanging left. Will have leanrt a bit from that ride and expecting better this time

Barasa Breeze 4.00 - Wayne Lordan - Turned out quickly after promising run here 6 days ago. 21 race maiden who looks primed to find a race imo
Report tanglefoot June 13, 2021 12:49 PM BST
Aswan 2.15 Doncaster ranked one at course according to your rankings,looks interesting takes on a  Appleby first timer.
Report tanglefoot June 13, 2021 12:50 PM BST
Doyle ^^
Report Mr Myxlplyx June 13, 2021 1:30 PM BST
Hibernate until September. Most variables are minimised - fewer first time out, going is consistent GF, beasts have relevant form.
Always money to be made in September in the place markets.
Report TOP3MAN June 13, 2021 11:40 PM BST
Running total into today was £467.19

2 out of 3 placed today

+9.57 today

Running total = £476.76
Report TOP3MAN June 14, 2021 9:32 AM BST
jock pot for today

Lingfield

Oisin Murphy ranked 8th
hollie doyle ranked 7th
Rav Havlin ranked 14th

Carlisle

Jason Hart Ranked 9th
Paul Hanagan Ranked 10th
Paddy Mathers Ranked 18th

Nottingham

David Allan Ranked 4th
Tony Hamilton Ranked 25th
Paul Mulrennan Ranked 34th

Gowran Park

Wayne Lordan Ranked 3rd
Shane Crosse Ranked 5th
W J Lee Ranked 11th

Windsor

James Doyle Ranked 1st
Marco Ghiani Ranked 12th
Jack Mitchell Ranked 23rd

selections later on
Report TOP3MAN June 14, 2021 12:39 PM BST
Lingfield - Hollie Doyle - Madame Marmalade 2.10 - Ran well on turf debut here, change to all weather and drawn handy, I think the lingfield race last time was a nicer race then this.
Carlisle - Paul Hanagan - Riversway 13.20 - Yard in form, Connections know this type and what is needed.
Gowran Park - W J Lee - Moss Tucker 15.30 - Stepping back up after sticking on well, the fact finding stops today with this one imo.
Nottingham - D Allan - Impeller 18.20 - Stopped on the rail, sat and suffer, was cantering along at that point, dropped 2lbs into an easier race, big chance
Windsor - J Doyle - Mr Tyrrell 20.00 - showed more latest, 74 rated, C&D winner, 3 places drawn nicely - expecting better tonight after comeback run.
Report PHS June 14, 2021 8:03 PM BST
Couple of winners there T3MCool
Report TOP3MAN June 14, 2021 9:57 PM BST
Lingfield - The 3 jocks 5/15 placed - I avoided Hollie's 2 - Starting to think I cant get her rides right. -£18.75
Carlisle - the 3 Jocks 3/7 Placed - Paul Hanagan directed the newcomer to the winners enclosure - Picked right +44.53
Nottingham The Jocks 5/13 - Picked the wrong jock as David Allan got 1/5 placed as Impeller change of tactics meant finished one out the place returns. -£18.75
Gowran Park The jocks 3/7 - Picked the right horse ridden by W J Lee as 3rd obtained on a serious drifter, which meant the place return was better. +29.93
Windsor The Jocks 5/10 - James Doyle does the job as Mr Tyrrell lands the spoils all out from 4 in a line +43.64

Daily Total = £80.60

Running total +557.36 - Stakes back up
Report TOP3MAN June 14, 2021 10:37 PM BST
Jockpot for Tuesday

Royal Ascot
James Doyle - Ranked 1st
William Buick - Ranked 2nd
Hollie Doyle - Ranked 3rd

Brighton
Sean Levey - Ranked 29th
Jason Watson - Ranked 30th
David Probert - Ranked 44th

Thirsk
David Allan - Ranked 13th
David Nolan - Ranked 23rd
Jack Mitchell - Ranked 28th

Sligo
Chris Hayes - Ranked 14th
W J Lee - Ranked 25th
Oisin Orr - Ranked 37th

Beverley

Mark Crehan - Ranked 9th
JOe Fanning - Ranked 10th
Paddy Mathers - Ranked 19th
Report TOP3MAN June 15, 2021 12:32 AM BST
William Buick (Royal Ascot) - Looks to have the best book of rides out of the 3 top ranked riders on Day one. The one that Catches the eye is in the St James Palace Stakes HIGHLAND AVENUE in which the boys in blue could've sent Masters of the Seas who goes for the Irish Derby for this, but they send in higjland Avenue who tasted defeat at Sandown in May giving an penalty away to his rival. Still sent of an warm order that day, they believe a lot in this dubawi offspring. Drawn 12 could be advantage for racing position by the time the 4,20 us completed

David Allan (Thirsk) - The handicap 12 days ago I believe hold the key here and David Allan rides again from that race this straight forward type who galloped through to the line. Drawn 5 this time, he could be drawn worse then previously, but he is 1lb better off with Dick Darstadly whom doesnt have Danny Tudhope this time, even though David Nolan is an able deputy, How STRONGBOWE is taken to reverse form with the two whom finished in front in the 1.40

Chris Hayes (Sligo) - The 4.45 was tempting, but something is just swaying me from the hot fav he rides in this race and has pointed me to CEASERS COMET in the 6.30 which goes well for the jockey and the return to handicap and sounder surface I think will bring about a change in fortune

Sean Levey (Brighton) - Could gone with Jason Watson and his hotpot on a tricky card at Brighton, however Sean Levey rides the Nap for the meeting for racingpost in the lucky last, but the earlier runner for the boss catches my eye in 6.20 MAGIC WARRIOR. I'm prepared to overlook the chester run and stick with redemption in this easier looking race. Could have gone the nursey route, but takes the novice event on here, and that Newmarket run has strong correlation formlines, even though a lot has happeneded since that run for many, but i suspect their is a horse in there.

Paddy Mathwes (Beverley) - Usually would've picked one of Joe Fanning ride at this track, but not totally bowled over by his rides, which suggest the unraced horse is most probably his best chance. However a rare chance is given to paddy Mathers whom seems to have a decent book of rides. The ones that standsout to me is 8.40 LOVE YOUR WORK who can work a vital track position from draw number 5 and is due a win on turf.

best of luck with your plays
Report TOP3MAN June 15, 2021 10:28 PM BST
Ascot Jocks - 3/10 - Hard times to find the placer as selection Highland Avenue cant muster the speed to get into the frame. -£37.50
Thirsk Jocks 7/14 - Easier racecard to find a winner, espcially once discounting David Nolan rides, David Allan delivers the good +29.57
Sligo Jocks 3/11 - Chris Hayes had the bulk of rides and quite frankly had a shocker throughout the card -£37.50
Brighton Jocks 7/12 - Each Jockey would've pointed in the way of an winner, Sean Levey placed on both rides and lands one (shame it was so short) +20.66
Beverley Jocks 3/9 - Each jockey lands one, but unfortunatly after toying with Joe Fanning rides, I went with Paddy Mathers who had a rare strong book of ride. The selection will have another day after losing his position and momentum in a messy race, fighting an uphill battle throughout. -37.50

Daily Total -62.27

Running total = £495.09 (stakes backdown)
Report posy June 15, 2021 10:38 PM BST
I admire your persistence top3man however I think you've set yourself a very difficult task and you'll eventually end up breaking even at best.I think you would have a greater chance if you could devise a system that took away the subjective element . Nevertheless I enjoy reading the thread and wish you luck.
Report TOP3MAN June 15, 2021 11:12 PM BST
Does feel like a circle is developing so there may well be some substance in that Posy.

last two days the jockpot has had 44 placers out 108 possiables, just under 41%. Will look into developing further criteria.

Tomorrow's Jockpot

Royal Ascot

William Buick (ranked 1st)
Hollie Doyle (ranked 2nd)
James Doule (ranked 3rd)

Ripon

David Allan (Ranked 4th)
Paul Hanagan (Ranked 5th)
Paul Mulrenenan (Ranked 35th)

Chelmesford

Mark Cerhan (Ranked 8th)
Franny Norton (ranked 17th)
Jack Mitchell (ranked 21st)

Hamilton

James Sullivan (Ranked 19th)
Paddy Mathers (Ranked 23rd)
Ben Curtis (Ranked 41st)
Report TOP3MAN June 16, 2021 1:15 PM BST
Royal Ascot - William Buick 18.10 - Dalanijujo - Winner latest, Jumps in class, but isnt without chance up 4lbs and in form. Handles this type of ground

Hamilton - James Sullivan 13.30 - Bay Breeze - Tim Easterby in form, this one knows its job, consistent running style, draw advanatage and expected to be bang there.

Chelmesford - Marc Cerham 20.23 - Too Shy Shy - Looks an interesting runner for Cerham tonight, drawn in a good position and posted an better effort last time. looks primed to becoming to herself, 3lbs off and 4lbs below mark, change of venue could benefit her

Ripon - Paul Hanagan 20.30 - Maywake - Was interested in this one on debut as I liked the pedigree - was an eye catching finisher that day and looks to hold some potential
Report TOP3MAN June 16, 2021 9:05 PM BST
Everytime I start to lose faith in this system, it pulls me back in.

Bay Breeze - Shocking run, should've stuck with my initial thought of going for Ben Curtis mount whom rode a treble -£18.75
Dalanjunjo - Stuck on after losing his position on the turnning in and left to much to do, finished just outside the places, another Buick ride that looked like it was picking up but flattened out up the straight. Bit more luck would've been placed -£18.75

Too Shy Shy - Mark Cerhan riding well for his claim on the rank outsider and finishing a decent 2nd - Place return was 6.29-1. +110.62
Maywake - Paul hanagan - Was a little unbalanced in the dip at Ripon, but stuck on well to finish 2nd, a likeable sort. Place Return 0.71-1 +12.65

Day Total = +85.77

Running total = +£580.86

Been looking into Eliminating some of the subjective approach, Because  I did pick wrong with William Buick in which I considered Both his placers today and James Doyle placer as well.


How did the jockpot do
Royal Ascot 3/16
Hamilton 3/11
Chelmesford 3/8
Ripon 3/8
Report TOP3MAN June 17, 2021 12:22 AM BST
Jockpot for Thursday

Royal Ascot
William Buick - Ranked 1
David Allan - Ranked 2
Hollie Doyle - Ranked 3

Lepordstown
Kevin Manning - Ranked 12th
Chris Hayes - Ranked 21st
W J Lee - Ranked 28th

Ripon
James Sullivan - Ranked 25th
Paddy Mathers - Ranked 30th
Connor Beasley - Ranked 38th

Chelmesford
Sean Levey - Ranked 17th
Cieron Fallon - Ranked 24th
Laura Pearson - Ranked 42nd

Lingfield

No Jocks on my list
Report TOP3MAN June 17, 2021 12:48 AM BST
2.50 BARYSHNIKOV ( C BEasley) - Went well in the Zetland Gold Cup. This is easier and expected to be bang there
3.05 ONE RULER (W Buick) - Dropped in class and wasnt disgraced in Derby or 2000 Guineas (must get one of Buick right)
4.30 RITCHIE VALENS (Laura Pearson) - Better then bare form latest and better off with that rival. Useful confident claimmer on board adds to claims
7.30 TWENTYBORE (W J LEE) - Hampered turning in last time, seems to be progressing and should run a big race of same mark
Report TOP3MAN June 20, 2021 9:26 PM BST
Thursday result.

1 placed 3 unplaced.

-112.50 + 26.36 = -£86.14

Running total = £494.72 (stakes down again)

jockpot

Ripon 3/11
Chelmesford 5/12
Ascot 3/8
lepordstown 5/13

Tomorrows jockpot

Wolverhampton

Callum Sheppard - Rank 2nd
Mark Cerhan - Rank 4th
Hollie Doyle - Rank 6th

Windsor

Marco Ghiani - Rank 3rd
William Buick - Rank 5th
Oisin Murphy - Rank 10th

Chepstow

David Probert - Rank 33rd
Pat Dobbs - Rank 46th
Luke Morris - Rank 54th

Ballinrobe

W J Lee - Ranked 11th
S Routledge - Ranked 19th
Ronan Whelan - Ranked 23rd
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