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hi any site giving true odds at betting without faverite,,had a sheet once but mislaid
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I think if you divide the betfair prices of the other horses by the betfair price of the favourite you will get close to the true price (assuming the market is close to 100%)
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thanks dave was wondering what true price on golf would berger be without johnson
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hmmm ignore my post the simple method doesn't seem to work.
you have to divide 1 by the bf price of the fav then take away that from 1. Then divide 1 by the bf price of your without fav selection, then divide the first figure by that. that should give you the without fav odds so johnson is 1.22 1/1.22 = .82, 1- .82 = .18. berger is 65 so 1/65 is .015 then .18/.015 =11.72 for berger to win without johnson - but the market isn't 100% so will only be approx. |
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thanks is well less on betfair market so no value thanks
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that market very odd - there must be some other dynamics the oddsetters are considering. Maybe berger shorter because he is def going through to the final so can risk boom or bust whereas scheffler and and english might want to maintain their position?
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i maybe best betting him at 50/1 1/4 ew do you think
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up to you m8
 I think he's an aggressive player and the course could yield some super low scores and if he shoots low and gets their I'd rather have a champagne price than a prosecco one  |
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*get's there
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ok be happy will place ,,,thanks for time
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new look looks over priced at 12/1 4.05 wolverhamton with a few
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he'll prob go for every flag and shoot 80 now
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nearly ,,,think bet was right 1 shot off second,,,,cheers
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the tv coverage wasn't that good but he didn't appear to have a great day with the putter.
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working out what we was talking about yesterday think we are not far off ,,but i felt 50/1 1/4 12 was better value than on betfair without fav,, i had a paper which showed exactly the price should be it was out of malcolm howards book value betting,,sure enough the page is missing out of book but nowhere to be seen,,so must be a site somewhere with it on ,,but formula you said is pretty near,,, i may look at spread prices on indexs next time think would have shown a profit cheers
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@porter -- if you are just missing one page of the book, try raising a thread asking for someone to upload a photo of the missing page. That's what phones were invented for!
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Has anyone got the paperback how to find value in betting by malcolm Howard raceform
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I have page 45/46 missing it is a table showing true price of betting without fav..if anyone could send be very grateful
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As an indie, I`m often asked for a price without the fav; all I do is see what percentage of the book the fav is taking, and subtract that percentage from all the other prices. It might not take into account any occasionally relevant extraneous factors, but it`s accurate enough for a quick rough calculation.
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that's a bit cheeky timmeh - if you do that on book prices you would surely be doubling your over-round?
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similar, but when you first answered dave, i quickly looked at reduction factor on here which was 80% ish, took it of the 64-1, not accurate but was a fast close enough with the book a touch over 100%
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off
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Here is the table. Note that Howard says it is just a guide and not as good as detailed calculations for a particular race.
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Having tried it, I am not sure that image is usable. The original photo was OK but it looks like Betfair has removed a lot of the detail to make the image smaller.
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it is ok ram, if you save the pic to your pc (right click) you can enlarge it
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i was looking earlier, thanks for posting
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that doesn't really work well elise
you have to click on ramruma's name, then photographs, click on the photo, then click on enlarge and it is very clear |
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sorry not enlarge "view full size"
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worked ok here, you need a) glasses b) a better pc .... :)
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your way is clearer, reason i saved it was in case i wanted to look in future, doubt i'd find the thread again
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lol I was wearing my glasses. The one on the thread is only 28KB and downloading the one on the profile is 1.1MB, so the smaller one is going to break in to pixels at a low zoom.
I wonder what book % he was using to calc these, as he would've had to assume one as these appear to be bookie prices |
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yes, i'd rather work it through myself rather than use a grid, was just interested in something i'd never seen previously
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Yes, Howard is doing this in the context of bookmakers offering prices without the favourite. Howard gives a number of examples of full calculations on actual prices before warning that in most cases, bookmakers offering prices without the favourite are betting to extortionate margins so the prices are rarely value and punters should steer clear. That is his motivation in providing the table as an approximate guide for punters entering the betting ring.
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@top2rated is king of the Betfair pictures! Btw can someone mention this thread to @porter who was the one who wanted this table in the first place? It took me a few days to find the book.
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that's so big that by the time i scrolled down i'd forgotten what the column was about
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thanks ramruma for your hard work,,will come in usefull,,,thanks again
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You're welcome.
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