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A lot been said about oath being the last to win from stall 1.
Been looking at every race since then and two things stND OUT.
First: 18 of the last 20 winners started at 7-1 or less. i.e. fancied horse usually wins.
Secondly: SP of the last 20 to draw stall 1.
9 were 25-1 or higher, 3 were 14-1 to 16-1, and 2 were non runners. 5 of the other 6 were 13-2 to 9-1.
Only Saxon Warrior (4-5 fav) really blew out but even he stumbled leaving the stalls, lost his place and got badly hampered in home straight and finished 4th
So make of that what you will but theres clearly more to it than meets the eye. Add in Frankies experience and I dont feel theres a valid reason to oppose him on draw grounds.
Been looking at every race since then and two things stND OUT.
First: 18 of the last 20 winners started at 7-1 or less. i.e. fancied horse usually wins.
Secondly: SP of the last 20 to draw stall 1.
9 were 25-1 or higher, 3 were 14-1 to 16-1, and 2 were non runners. 5 of the other 6 were 13-2 to 9-1.
Only Saxon Warrior (4-5 fav) really blew out but even he stumbled leaving the stalls, lost his place and got badly hampered in home straight and finished 4th
So make of that what you will but theres clearly more to it than meets the eye. Add in Frankies experience and I dont feel theres a valid reason to oppose him on draw grounds.
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I guess it was potential problems like this that made them lean towards Frankie...
Good luck
Went for Russian E...I was smitten with the mom back in the day and I really like how he hit top gear and sustained it all the way to wire at Ascot. My concern is he takes a while to get going so we’ll have to see if he can replicate that run at Ascot while dealing with the intricacies of Epsom....I don’t feel distance will be an issue for him...I think he’s very good. G1 winner for sure...whether it’s this race or something else later in the season we’ll have to see.
Good luck
Went for Russian E...I was smitten with the mom back in the day and I really like how he hit top gear and sustained it all the way to wire at Ascot. My concern is he takes a while to get going so we’ll have to see if he can replicate that run at Ascot while dealing with the intricacies of Epsom....I don’t feel distance will be an issue for him...I think he’s very good. G1 winner for sure...whether it’s this race or something else later in the season we’ll have to see.
i do think he needs to decide will he drop him in and go for gaps or use up a bit of petrol to get position. Id prefer he dropped him in as a backer
And if you review every other race at epsom over 1m 4f stall 1 has a disasterous record. Having said that, I don't think its impossible and English has the best jockey in the business. The odds are moving out and if you are a backer he is becoming a worthwhile bet.
And if you review every other race at epsom over 1m 4f stall 1 has a disasterous record. Having said that, I don't think its impossible and English has the best jockey in the business. The odds are moving out and if you are a backer he is becoming a worthwhile bet.
i'd take odds on with fd on board you wouldnt have kownn he was drawn 1 after 2f.
Never really understood the worry about the draw on a turning track with the possible exception of Chester and even there horses with outside draws do win. The one that always gets me is the Northumberland Plate -plenty of time to get a position if good enough.
Funny one isnt it?
Personally, given the horse missed the break at Lingfield, I think Frankie will drop him in and hopefully pounce late. Wings of Eagles did the same thing when it was a big field like today.
That said, who can second guess Frankie? Just as likely to boot him out, grab the lead and drop anchor!!
Its a massively intriguing race, particularly with Ryan Moore berthed next to him. Cant wait!
Personally, given the horse missed the break at Lingfield, I think Frankie will drop him in and hopefully pounce late. Wings of Eagles did the same thing when it was a big field like today.
That said, who can second guess Frankie? Just as likely to boot him out, grab the lead and drop anchor!!
Its a massively intriguing race, particularly with Ryan Moore berthed next to him. Cant wait!
Never really understood the worry about the draw on a turning track with the possible exception of Chester and even there horses with outside draws do win
Amazingly stall 11 has never had a winner of the Derby since stalls first used at Epsom...
Not a single horse drawn 1 in any race over 1m 4f, in the last 10 years, has won in a field greater than 8 runners.
wouldn't get hooked up too much on individual stalls but in large fields over 1m 4f @ epsom the higher the better...hence flip flopping favs
The draw is not a factor in the Derby.
Or if it is a factor we do not know the draw until they are being loaded into the stalls.
Why? Because for the last ten years the starter has messed with the draw.
There are two stalls machines holding ten runners each.
The field in 2020 is 16 runners.
In 2019 the starter filled the stalls 1 to 10 in machine 1, and 11,12,13 in machine 2.
In 2018 the starter put 1,2 in stall 1, and 3 to 12 in stall 2.
In 2017 it was stalls 2 to 10 in 1, and 11 to 19 in 2.
English King is drawn 1, but he may be in stall 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 depending on the mood of the starter or the BHA.
Or if it is a factor we do not know the draw until they are being loaded into the stalls.
Why? Because for the last ten years the starter has messed with the draw.
There are two stalls machines holding ten runners each.
The field in 2020 is 16 runners.
In 2019 the starter filled the stalls 1 to 10 in machine 1, and 11,12,13 in machine 2.
In 2018 the starter put 1,2 in stall 1, and 3 to 12 in stall 2.
In 2017 it was stalls 2 to 10 in 1, and 11 to 19 in 2.
English King is drawn 1, but he may be in stall 1,2,3,4,5 or 6 depending on the mood of the starter or the BHA.
On the basis of the first race it mightn't be the draw but coming off the rail and going up the near side in the straight? Who grabs the rail a fairly big advantage?
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