Furlough

i would say most are worried about futures , staring into an ever closing abyss

Hospitality , high street , aviation , farming , fishing , breweries , etc etc

anyone employed in these sectors has a dark future , most wont have a job at a time when there is no jobs around

the knock on will affect every part of the economy, those that go early will just push other sectors off the cliff later

Where exactly are the government finding the money to pay for this? The amount of times the government announce we're going to donate x to this sector, y to this charity, great in theory but where's the money coming from?

your pension will be one (add on working an extra 5 years min), new tax and increased tax of all forms another, the rest from the "new austerity"

new austerity is just cutbacks dressed up for thick people

May 12, 2020 -- 3:35PM, elise wrote:

your pension will be one (add on working an extra 5 years min), new tax and increased tax of all forms another, the rest from the "new austerity"

It won't be coming at the expense of MPs pay, pension or expenses, you can almost guarantee that.

not sure how anyone won't be hit going forward, even them

we're maybe on the verge after this of a massive political system overhaul, because I doubt many will view any of this as a success once the dust settles

if he didn't extend or even start furlough he would have millions made redundant overnight

how expensive would that be in comparison ?

Re starting an economy with half the industries shut down , paying millions UC or whatever they claim

The UK government have a good credit history internally and externally thus lenders will readily make funds available for them. Also, Covid-19 is not UK specific. As such, the UK have not lost economic ground/superiority to every trade competitor suffering the same fate.

"t won't be coming at the expense of MPs pay, pension or expenses, you can almost guarantee that."


there was me thinking we are all in it toghether, anyway that is what boris keeps telling us

Apart from Sweden
and their experiment!!!

Expect thy be a few blondes available for a good time

how many wouldve been evicted from private rents and owned homes, doesnt bear thinking about it

ive started watching the middle about a american couple  with 3 kids living the simple life (still have a video recorder) set in indiana, very funny, only 20 mins per episode but has 9 seasons

trouble is in these times many people live above their means and have loads of debts and little savings

it's only been delayed, it's still in many cases going to happen

Each MPs is £10k (on top of their annual remuneration plus expenses) better off courtesy of Covid-19 as additional payment to costs incurred working from home, etc. This is equivalent to 4 months "income support" for the top category recipient on the present government financial aid package ie those with their income stream decimated.

I think we all have been impacted - some more than others. But, I hope there is a positive side from it all without recourse to the NHS eg appreciation of freedom, and the ability to choose (options).

sadly its inevitable

revenue streams of many on high street will not be there for a long time

effecting also those who supply the high street

remember watching cant pay wont pay tv series and they state many companies dont have extra money in case of the unforseen happening

housing market's not been mentioned too much yet, once the jobs start shedding by the million pick a number for % drop

The slack in the housing market is one of the positives (a property will eventually be worth the purchase price unless...), and must not be allowed to be taken advantage of by the buy-to-let brigade (with multiple properties) as it's not conducive to 1st time buyers or private renters.

A drop is virtually inevitable, but it's not such a bad thing - the bubble needs picking.

there is always a winner in desprate times, i bought some bp shares a few weeks back at £2.56 now at £3.12 so hopeing boris gets it right in the next month and  i can cash out

^^
Nothing wrong with that... a certain (quantifiable/calculated) risk involved; money makes money (if you have money).

and must not be allowed to be taken advantage of by the buy-to-let brigade (with multiple properties) as it's not conducive to 1st time buyers or private renters. You can bet your bottom dollar that there will be bank led syndicates buying up all the bankrupt housing stock. All those Tory MP's (and most of the labour one's too) buying into investment funds scavenging from the misfortune of the very people who elected them. Its the very definition of investment banking.

7.5 million on furlough

what %age will have a job to go back to , i reckon maybe half will be redundant as soon as its cut

if boris doesn't adopt a safer strategy there will be a second wave , then its curtains for economic revival Dr. Anthony Fauci issued a warning about states that disregard coronavirus guidelines for safely reopening.



“There is a real risk that you will trigger an outbreak that you may not be able to control,” he said.
Fauci said those actions would “turn the clock back” on stemming the tide of coronavirus infections.

That would “paradoxically set you back, not only leading to some suffering and death that could be avoided, but could even set you back on the road to trying to get economic recovery,” Fauci said.




Dr Fauci today

If the Government has shut your business down, it's fair that you still get paid. Now suppose your monthly take  home was £2000 but is now £1600. How much worse off are you ? You aren't paying commuting costs be that fuel/parking, bus or train fares. You aren't buying your caffeine fix on the way in nor your sandwich from a shop at lunchtime. On your way home you can't have a pint. You can't go out in the evening to the cinema/theatre/concert with your popcorn/burger. At the weekend you can't go to the pub/football/racing etc. You can't travel  anywhere.
Is 80% too generous?

Yes

maybe it is a bit generous tbh

but they did their sums first

was either that or mass redundancy this country has never ever seen before , would imagine the cost to gov more or less the same either way


no point restarting economy with half the industries shut down and 5 million on state benefits

Generous or not, the country can't afford it. Fauci is not god and better epidemiologists than him disagree. If they hadn't locked us down there wouldn't be a second wave, the first wasn't that bad. Less people in hospital than ever! What an absolute catastrophe. Now they are having to extend furlough and one thing everyone seems to agree on in this forum is that it won't do any good, there will be a sever recession at best. The rich will get richer off it and tell you it was for your health and they did you a favour.

80% is extremely generous. After the mandatory deductions, and with a lockdown the ability and options to spend money on leisure are severely curtailed including the annual holiday, if lockdown is prolonged. Most British folks drink, and some smoke, possibly gamble and do drugs too, eat out, go on holiday, etc, are unable to live off benefits. However, for newcomers without these social habits a standard benefit handout is more than adequate esp with housing paid.

Sometimes, it's not what you earn but what you spend. At the end of the day these two factors are relative. However, they do decide our future (at least financially) and possibly well-being too.

Self employed still not been payed out
Mps give them self a 10 k bonus to work from home
Only people who have scored out Covid 19

A novel alternative might have been to allow the fit and healthy to carry on working as normal and just shield the elderly/vulnerable.  The lock down measures have been too drastic in my opinion.

its an option

not sure they would appreciate being on permanent lockdown tho tbh

Well thats exactly whats going to happen Hello. The curve has been 'flattened' which means the infections will go on longer and hence the vulnerable won't be safe for a while yet.

Tugay

There are plenty who have made much more than the mp you mention.

80% is great . I have never smoked , very rarely drink and shop at Aldi . Excessive work is for mugs anyway . The graveyard is full of people who have worked themselves to death . Enjoy it while it lasts . Tax evasion costs the government 30bn a year , much more than benefit fraud , so maybe they could claw some back off them .
Some nice brandy tonight

sad to say I am getting MORE for staying at home than going to work.
stay safe
Ronnie.

^^
I hope when you do go back 'ronnie' observe social distancing as if your life depends on it.

..

When I go back to work . Social distancing will be a thing long gone .

a little like an unfrozen hell?

The slack in the housing market is one of the positives (a property will eventually be worth the purchase price unless...), and must not be allowed to be taken advantage of by the buy-to-let brigade (with multiple properties) as it's not conducive to 1st time buyers or private renters.

A drop is virtually inevitable, but it's not such a bad thing - the bubble needs picking.
___________________

what bubble ?    houses have gone up only 50% in the last 15 years  compared with 500% for the 15 years prior to that and 300 % in the 15 years before that ?    most people who bought back then have paid as much in interest and repairs than they've seen in any rise of value 

House prices  are their lowest  since 2005 in real terms ,they need to go up not down if anything  ,mortgages are cheaper now than they would've been in the 1970s ...there are loads of houses out there  but there are also   too many private landlords

'no point restarting economy with half the industries shut down and 5 million on state benefits'

___________________

Industries ?   what industries ?   ...this is the UK   ... our only source of income is finance and tourism they tell me .

"The furlough scheme is basically the most expensive unemployment benefit on the planet."

Lance Forman, May 2020

It is a great scheme and something the government has got absolutely spot on and the alternatives are horrendous.

Better to have people on short term furlough than long term unemployment.  (Although I realise lots of people will be made unemployed at the end of this).  However those people have had 7 months to prepare themselves, look for alternate work, etc.

If you make a private renter unemployed you will be paying them near £1000 per month JSA, housing benefit.

Percentage is relative eg if buying early the price will be much lower eg in the mid 70's ea 2-bed Victorian flat in Turnham Green Chiswick was only £9.7k is worth many multiples now. Simlarly, a £40k semi-detached house (plus £12k upgrade) in late 70's Sutton is now worth near £750k, and is much sought after despite Covid-19.

However, if one bought in mid-2005 the percentage appreciation would be much lesser in comparison, but the monetary profit could be comparable minus purchase price eg £500k --> £1m.

It will be a struggle to get the work ethic back for plenty after 6 months in the sun.

Ribero1, you usually speak sense but 99% of those on furlough would be sooner in work on 100% wage with job security, not sitting at home.

100% agree EF

I would imagine most will have no job when it ends aswell , looks bleak for travel , hospitality , pubs , high st , farming etc

the extention means all four home nations have a defined time to prepare given differing timelines for exit

Iam not buying into this mass of job losses, just can't understand why 1000's of business will close for good.A place will still be there infact I think it will be far more profitable for said 1000's of firms. A licence to print has been granted all you need to do is open you'r eyes.

Imagine your in hospitality , brewery , high st etc

whaere is your market coming from with no international travel and a large %age of population with virus fear , add distancing to reduce capacity and takings many just wont survive , you have entire industries only alive due to furlough , when that stops keys will turn in many places its inevitable

hello:-) I do understand the concerns you put forward, but this will and have to come to an end can't and will not continue forever. When it does mend things will be buzzing all round the world. It's not about short term.

I just popped out to the shop and on the way back on the radio it said that economists were predicting (and these are the exact words) ' the mother of all recessions the like of which this country has never seen before'. That's not good is it? How all this will play out with Brexit god only knows. I think we had a decent had with a strong economy because Germany has a large trade surplus with us. I'm not sure how that will look now.

Today an extra £600m announced to fight infections for care homes in England (no mention of elsewhere). How the heck they come to this figure I don't know and has been mentioned before where is this amount actually coming from? Just some spare change Boris found down the side of the sofa? Baffling sums.

I think there are about 600000 people in care homes in teh UK so it looks like £1k per person. Don't ask me where they are getting it from though. Boris' hands must be covered in blue ink!

I agree with ribero1. I've worked in IT for the last 20 years since leaving school. Been furloughed since the beginning.. My work top up the government payment so I'm on 80% wage. I've got more cash at the end of each month than I've ever had. Gonna be difficult to get me back into work mode for sure.

I thought the govt give 80% and then the employer may, or may not, top up the extra 20%.  You must be on 100% wage if work are topping up?

Nope, the government pay a max of 2.5k a month gross, my work top up that amount so I'm on 80% wage.

Ok, so I'm still trying to get my head round this.  I'm retired so it doesn't affect me.  If someone was on £2,000 pm (let's ignore gross/net to simplify it), govt would pay £1,600 and the employer may (but isn't obliged to) top up the extra £400?

correct ian, the employee is not allowed to do any work for the employer whilst under furlough

But the same employee could Uber and earn more dosh. All these are legal.

Furlough is extremely generous given the total costs in getting to work. I think the government had not considered the effects on spending during lockdown eg I spend 40%  less.

Don't worry everyone will be paying it back.....Or maybe you think the rich will start to pay their fair share??

fairly recent stats show the top 1% of earners pay 28% of all income tax collected in the uk..
obviously as they should

Thats only have the story Isleham, they have 90% of the wealth so they owe us another 62%.

unfortunately much of the wealth in this country is held by the likes of russian oligarchs and arab sheiks etc
and these probably dont pay a single penny to us.
but you do have to be careful not to overtax the wealthy or the consequence is they may rush off to tax havens and not pay anything at all.
anyway hopefully on june 1st i wont be posting these comments and only commenting on racing topics...i think you are a pro racing return asap
so im very much in your camp

It was a bit of a tongue in cheek response Isleham (and I deserved a reprimand for the way I spelt half!). You bet I am pro getting back.

40%less do you never go out ?

Instead of shopping 5x a week (only two at the most now) and no big supermarkets either because of the long queues. As such, mainly in Lidl (in and out asap) because of the riff-raff. Also, no more stocking up on wild red salmon/duck breasts as no discount or voucher offered by Waitrose/Ocado online as I'm not a priority; no posh bread at delicatessen; no treats at a Chinese bakery or supermarket.

Lockdown = less spending.

Lock down = less spending.  It also equals less people working, less children being educated, less taxes, less horse racing venues, less football clubs etc.  It will eventually lead us back into the dark ages as there will be no money to pay for any public services, including NHS and police.  I hope that today's news about the R number increasing doesn't bring back the original lock down. The government needs to hold its nerve.

the magic money tree kicks in whereby all debt is negated by money printing to buy back national debt offset over time.

the pound wont depreciate against other currencies.

its called the magic money tree which i put up on a thread before,Andrew Bailey has supported this policy.

any recession that happens will transpire through unemployment causing negative stimulus,not national debt.

prof chav signing off on that one

Your wasted on here Chav.

Lockdown = Less Spending relates to why the government had not taken this into consideration when furloughing workers on an exceptionally generous 80% average monthly pay before 20% top-up by employer?

I was not referring to or talking about the probable repercussion on economic activities in the near future.

thanks,it was just a brief outline of the fiscal policy that will be adopted.

@ impossible123.  No problem, I wasn't having a go at your post. I agree with you.  I was just taking it a bit further as regards how the lock down will affect things if it is continued and/or extended for a long period.  I'm of the opinion that lock down(s) will not eradicate COVID.  However, I think many mistakenly believe that it will.  I think the best policy would be to continue to shield the elderly/vulnerable, whilst letting the virus spread through the younger/healthy part of the population.  This will eventually build up significant herd immunity.  The alternative would be to go major lock down for 12/18 months until (if) a vaccine arrives.  I think this would be a massive risk.

So 1% of the tax payers pay 28% of the tax . Ok fact

Another fact .. tax evasion cost the government 30 billion per year .

11kv15 May 20 21:03
Your wasted on here Chav.

yeah,normally every weekend

'ian merseyside', no worries. I'm here to share, learn and hopefully impart a bit of what I know. A major lockdown will never be accepted by the public - the UK is not N Korea.

Itchy Ballsack making an announcement at 11.30. Is this where employers start throwing the towel into the ring?

Blanket scheme of no use to an industry that's unlikely to get off the runway this side of August.

If you have no revenue how can you absorb rent, loan repayments, 5/10/20% wage liabilities?

Nutsack reckons, "No-one wants to be sat at home, not contributing"



Ya gotta laugh

furlough is brilliant, 80% and some nice bosses topping it up to 100&, id be quite happy with 60%  to be honest. but one thing i feel isnt right is that some employers force you to take your annual leave,  , eg im on 400 a week, with furlough ill get 320 a week 80%, but boss says i have to take 2 weeks off my annual hols, so all he  has to do is  top my pay up to the 400, for 2 weeks out of the furlough( and ive lost out on 2 weeks holidays) .the employers are the ones really benefitting with this , they get loans, grants, and also only having to pay 20% of holiday pay for all staff.

Is that allowed though? Or is he bending the rule to suit himself? It certainly is not in the spirit. I'm sure you'd rather choose when you go on your hols and during furlough.

On the BBC News 24 yesterday a few viewers complained that they had yet to receive their furlough money from their employers even though it'd been paid out as indicated on government website; their employers were unwilling to discuss where the money had gone either citing confidentiality. Furlough money used by employers for something else instead?

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/holiday-entitlement-and-pay-during-coronavirus-covid-19

Yep, you are right enough, this section here seems to clarify,

Furloughed workers
An employer should not automatically pay a worker on holiday the rate of pay that they are receiving while on furlough, unless the employer has agreed to not reduce the worker’s pay while on furlough.

If a worker on furlough takes annual leave, an employer must calculate and pay the correct holiday pay in accordance with current legislation - see the standard guidance. Where this calculated rate is above the pay the worker receives while on furlough, the employer must pay the difference. However, as taking holiday does not break the furlough period, the employer can continue to claim the 80% grant from the government to cover most of the cost of holiday pay.

on your 2nd point, its so easy for any crooked boss to claim on eg 20 staff getting 300 each from gov thats 6000 a week, 24, 000 a month and then bloody scapper back to eg india, or wherever after a couple of months,

That's unfair. Your employer paying just £160 (if Covid-19 was not present and you're not on furloughed) towards your 2 week hols instead of £800, if I understand correctly.

There is a saying "the desire for money is the root of all evil", usually adopted by the "cleaver" ones if they think can get away with it.

exactly imp. really not in the spirit of things but the employer is allowed to do that, the nice ones will either pay you full as well as furlough, or have them when furlough ends, or some bosses are allowed staff  to carry hols over to next year.

If he'd been topping up your furlough money to 100% till the end of the government furlough period eg March to Aug (whenever the period ends) at least then he would not be deemed stingy if annual hols was introduced into the furlough equation. But, at present he's mean and exploiting the spirit and the purpose of furlough.

yes id be happy with that.

Let's hope he comes to his "senses" soon.

Rolls-Royce confirms 3,000 job cuts across the UK (BBC 1 hour ago)


Frankie & Benny's owner to close up to 120 sites (BBC 5 hours ago)

Up to 3,000 jobs are at risk after one of the country's biggest restaurant operators decided as many as 120 outlets will not reopen after lockdown, the BBC has learned.

A worker at one of Britain's largest sandwich-making firms which has ceased trading said closure would be "devastating" to its 2,000 workers. (BBC 4 hours ago)

Adelie Foods, which has sites at Milton Keynes and Southall in west London, went into administration last week.


8,000 (reported) jobs down the U-Bend in a few hours. Hardly newsworthy with 'other' events unfolding.

If someone loots a pair of trainers from Ashley's gaff later on tonight it will be headline news

What a sad day for these poor folks? But, as always the administrators are coining it in just like they did in the Banking Crisis in 2008 - 2010 eg charging a bomb for doing very little.

We all know as the end of the furlough gets closer this is going to happen with more frequency.

one quarter of UK workforce being paid 80% directly by UK government and I'd wager only a fraction of these are having their wages topped up to 100% by their employers. when 1st August comes and employers expected (although not sure yet to what extent) to pay some of the 80%, then the trickle of P45s will become a flow...
when 1st October comes and UK government scheme (forecast!!) to end then the flow will become a torrent...

can expect at least 4M+ unemployed and the real sacrifices of front-line workers without PPE and the equally valid but less (presently) visible sacrifices by general population will be swamped in tax increases and yet more squeezing of public spending because the sources of tax revenue to UK government will have evaporated..

fuel tax, corporation tax, income tax, aviation passenger tax, VAT  - all down the swanee big time...it could all have been managed so much better if the 'scientists' leading the govt policy had included mathematicians, economists, sociologists and moral/ethical advisors - at the end of the day THIS government (and many others around the world) decided to sacrifice the future for 7bn people for next 10-20 years to 'save' probably less than 5 million...the price for each of the 380,000 lost so far is indeed hefty and these are the same 'leaders' (sic) who were asked for some relatively minor (in comparison) decisions to save the planet and who universally responded NO...

The Employer will be required to stump up  the employer's national insurance and pension contributions from Aug 1st.

From Sept 1st the employer will continue to pay the above whilst the treasury will pay 70% of the employee's wage with the employer topping up it up to 80% (unless they plead poverty and negotiate it down).

From Oct 1st things will be starting to look grim. If the employer is still limping along at this juncture, they will receive just 60% from the treasury to help out Bob cratchit and poor Tiny Tim while maintaining the add-ons.

Companies are not permitted to defer the add-on liabilities by HMRC. They get a furlough grant and required to find provision from it.

By October the 31st the ghouls will have closed the scheme completely.

We may, or may not have an economy left by Bonfire night.

Sad to see Bentley and aston martin laying off staff today.

Prestigious companies offering well paid jobs to dedicated and skilled workforces.

The government have been too slow implementing things all the way down the line and the same is happening now. It's the fear factor. They pushed the 1st June back to the 15th but allowed car showrooms to open!!! What's that all about? While they continue with furlough payments, most of the population will be happy the way things are. Which would you rather do? Battle your way twice a day through rush hour traffic for a job you're perhaps not too happy with or stay at home on 80% in this glorious weather?

Why wait until the 15th? Get shops and businesses open now. Let pubs open using beer gardens, I know a lot of landlords are keen and willing to do that. Stop or at least reduce social distancing and stop treating us like children, let people decide for themselves. If individuals are wary of close contact, let them decide whether or not to go out, whether or not to use protective items, masks etc. Queueing up to actually get into a shop would have been laughed at 4 months ago and yet people are behaving like lemmings and doing as they're told.

Sport is back behind closed doors but that needs to be moved on at some point to allow crowds back in some way. Again, if allowed, that will be implemented too slowly.....we need to be more positive!

I've been on Furlough since lockdown started, just hope I have a job to go back to..

I think that people are in for a shock. By the time that pubs, restaurants, gyms and sporting events get to reopen to the public, demand will be greatly reduced. Yes we will all go to the pub for the first weekend but then the recession will kick in. In the middle of all this there is still Brexit to deal with and the winter viruses that will get all the hysterical media and ill informed loonies demanding more restrictions. I think it will be a very difficult 2021 with unemployment remaining high and house prices getting hit.

Will we go to the pub though for the first weekend? Most people I speak to, tell me they won't. Guess we won't know for sure until the time comes. Would I go myself? No.

The pubs will be mobbed by 'young people' the first weekend. Remember when we were young??