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I laid Communicado for a couple of pounds at Will Rogers Downs Wednesday night at 17.5 to 1 and the bugger won but there was a non-runner realrealgood at 11 to 4. The industry rule 4 meant that regular bookies deducted 25 pence in the pound but betfair apparently on the exchange have their own rules and they only deducted 3.1%. I don't know what their own rules are but I noted that they still deducted 25% on the sportsbook. If you try to click on information about betfair exchange reduction factor its a broken link.
Obviously if an 11 to 4 is withdrawn shortly before the off then to be fair to layers betfair should reduce the potential winnings by more than 3.1%. Its not clear why it isn't the same as rule 4, and when I try to visit the page that explains their methods it doesn't exist. So be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay.
Obviously if an 11 to 4 is withdrawn shortly before the off then to be fair to layers betfair should reduce the potential winnings by more than 3.1%. Its not clear why it isn't the same as rule 4, and when I try to visit the page that explains their methods it doesn't exist. So be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay.
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Are you sure that the REDUCTION FACTOR was only - "3.1%" ? - and not, a more expected percentage
That really does seem strange - although you were betting on a USA race - where prices and Markets can vary - often quite markedly- from what you would expect of UK Markets.
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That instance apart ...
Your 'Warning' and Whinge - is normally sadly misplaced
You say - "So be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay."
You could not be MORE WRONG... as - ENTIRELY the OPPOSITE is the truth.
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When a Horse becomes a NON-Runner in a Betfair Exchange Market - Then a pre-determined REDUCTION FACTOR is applied ... This is broadly based on a somewhat earlier, initial, Market Price.
There ARE examples whereby the Reduction Factor does not correlate with the Bookmakers Rule 4 by a more noticeable degree.
However - The Betfair REDUCTION FACTOR is applied to the whole RETURN - BOTH a Winning Punter's (BACKER) Winnings and their STAKE... due to the Market being a 100% book EXCHANGE.
Thus ...
A Backer has £100 on a 2/1 Winner with a BOOKMAKER = Wins £200 -
However - There is a 25p in the £ pound RULE 4 DEDUCTION - £50 ... meaning the Winning BACKER now WINS = £150
A Backer has £100 on an 3.0 shot (same as 2/1 with Bookie) on Betfair EXCHANGE = Wins £200
However - The EXCHANGE REDUCTION FACTOR is only, say, 20% ... meaning the Winning BACKER now WINS = £140 ... £60 Reduction Factor DEDUCTION from the whole Bet RETURN
- That being 20p in £ Deduction from the £200 Winnings = £40 = £160 left as Winnings -
- BUT ALSO - 20p in £ DEDUCTION from the Backer's STAKE = £20 = Final Winnings of £140
THUS - The BACKER stands to Win £10 LESS
The LAYER liability becomes £10 LESS ... BUT - the LAYER still stands to Win the FULL £100 STAKE from the Backer - should the horse LOSE.
That is a close comparison ... Try it with an EVENS Chance becoming a NON-Runner.
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Hardly your - "be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay."
Perhaps - Back to the Sportsbook, and other Bookies, for you.
That really does seem strange - although you were betting on a USA race - where prices and Markets can vary - often quite markedly- from what you would expect of UK Markets.
------------
That instance apart ...
Your 'Warning' and Whinge - is normally sadly misplaced
You say - "So be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay."
You could not be MORE WRONG... as - ENTIRELY the OPPOSITE is the truth.
----------
When a Horse becomes a NON-Runner in a Betfair Exchange Market - Then a pre-determined REDUCTION FACTOR is applied ... This is broadly based on a somewhat earlier, initial, Market Price.
There ARE examples whereby the Reduction Factor does not correlate with the Bookmakers Rule 4 by a more noticeable degree.
However - The Betfair REDUCTION FACTOR is applied to the whole RETURN - BOTH a Winning Punter's (BACKER) Winnings and their STAKE... due to the Market being a 100% book EXCHANGE.
Thus ...
A Backer has £100 on a 2/1 Winner with a BOOKMAKER = Wins £200 -
However - There is a 25p in the £ pound RULE 4 DEDUCTION - £50 ... meaning the Winning BACKER now WINS = £150
A Backer has £100 on an 3.0 shot (same as 2/1 with Bookie) on Betfair EXCHANGE = Wins £200
However - The EXCHANGE REDUCTION FACTOR is only, say, 20% ... meaning the Winning BACKER now WINS = £140 ... £60 Reduction Factor DEDUCTION from the whole Bet RETURN
- That being 20p in £ Deduction from the £200 Winnings = £40 = £160 left as Winnings -
- BUT ALSO - 20p in £ DEDUCTION from the Backer's STAKE = £20 = Final Winnings of £140
THUS - The BACKER stands to Win £10 LESS
The LAYER liability becomes £10 LESS ... BUT - the LAYER still stands to Win the FULL £100 STAKE from the Backer - should the horse LOSE.
That is a close comparison ... Try it with an EVENS Chance becoming a NON-Runner.
------------
Hardly your - "be warned that laying on betfair is unfair to layers and one shouldn't lay."
Perhaps - Back to the Sportsbook, and other Bookies, for you.
Yes I am familiar with the theory.
Nevertheless, an 11 to 4 was taken out of the race and the reduction factor was 3.1%.
This is actually the third time it has happened to me, and each time the reduction factor has been to my disadvantage in comparison with the bookies rule 4.
There was a fourth occasion which was even worse since the exchange did not even apply rule 4, but that was with smarkets.
Nevertheless, an 11 to 4 was taken out of the race and the reduction factor was 3.1%.
This is actually the third time it has happened to me, and each time the reduction factor has been to my disadvantage in comparison with the bookies rule 4.
There was a fourth occasion which was even worse since the exchange did not even apply rule 4, but that was with smarkets.
As an habitual layer there are odd examples where the reduction factor looks a bit strange but tbh it can go either way. Swings and roundabouts.
Furthermore, the reduction factor applied by betfair is not transparent. With the bookies rule 4 you know exactly what is going to be taken off your winnings. But the reduction factor is a mystery wrapped in an enigma. The need for transparency is there even if the system worked fairly.
it's not a mystery if you click on the graph near the horse name
but as you've been here since 2008 at least, I suppose you already know that
Something odd here
The American Tote Returns Add Up to a 124 % Book without your "11/4" NON-Runner.
The prices on Timeform/Betfair - are the same Odds - so we do not know what the Betfair EXCHANGE Odds were... But - The EXCHANGE Odds should/would be higher - as it is a 100% Book.
American Tote Result - from Equibase ...
Converted to ODDS - NOT $2 Tote Returns
Communicado .........16.20
Baytown Babe ........ 7.40
Bling Springsteen ... 5.30
Rewarded ............11.00
Shesgothistouch .....20.40
Kottoncandy Kisses .. 1.50
Darling Kinna .......66.40
Special Sky .........40.20
All the Juice ....... 2.00
Both Attherasces and Sportinglife.com - have a FULL List of Industry Prices against the Race Result.
Those Prices Add Up to a 126 % Book
If there was a Rule 4 - "11/4 NON-Runner" - that would ADD a FURTHER 26.5 % to that Book - making the Industry Price Book a Total of - 152 %
Others will be able to confirm whether that is the norm for 'Industry Prices' on American Racing ... But it does look exceptionally HIGH to me
A "3.1 %" REDUCTION FACTOR - would be equivalent to a 33/1 Shot.
As I have posted - the Reduction Factor is/can be determined by prices early on in the Market.
This would intimate that the - "11/4 NON-Runner"- was backed in from 33/1.
If so - then, surely, most of the others would have been eased out - to balance the Book
YET - The race STILL had 13/8 Joint Favs in it - at the Returned Industry Prices
?
The American Tote Returns Add Up to a 124 % Book without your "11/4" NON-Runner.
The prices on Timeform/Betfair - are the same Odds - so we do not know what the Betfair EXCHANGE Odds were... But - The EXCHANGE Odds should/would be higher - as it is a 100% Book.
American Tote Result - from Equibase ...
Converted to ODDS - NOT $2 Tote Returns
Communicado .........16.20
Baytown Babe ........ 7.40
Bling Springsteen ... 5.30
Rewarded ............11.00
Shesgothistouch .....20.40
Kottoncandy Kisses .. 1.50
Darling Kinna .......66.40
Special Sky .........40.20
All the Juice ....... 2.00
Both Attherasces and Sportinglife.com - have a FULL List of Industry Prices against the Race Result.
Those Prices Add Up to a 126 % Book
If there was a Rule 4 - "11/4 NON-Runner" - that would ADD a FURTHER 26.5 % to that Book - making the Industry Price Book a Total of - 152 %
Others will be able to confirm whether that is the norm for 'Industry Prices' on American Racing ... But it does look exceptionally HIGH to me
A "3.1 %" REDUCTION FACTOR - would be equivalent to a 33/1 Shot.
As I have posted - the Reduction Factor is/can be determined by prices early on in the Market.
This would intimate that the - "11/4 NON-Runner"- was backed in from 33/1.
If so - then, surely, most of the others would have been eased out - to balance the Book
YET - The race STILL had 13/8 Joint Favs in it - at the Returned Industry Prices
?
@onlooker
"so we do not know what the Betfair EXCHANGE Odds were"
We do know - have you forgotten about this page?
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
I am conscious that the Forum will destroy my formatting, but the BSPs were (implied percentages and percentage book are my calculation not BF's):
MENU_HINT EVENT_NAME EVENT_DT SELECTION_NAME WIN_LOSE BSP
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Kottoncandy Kisses 0 2.907053797 34%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Communicado 1 22.4873931 4%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Bling Springsteen 0 8.227023622 12%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 All The Juice 0 3.302890416 30%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Rewarded 0 21 5%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Special Sky 0 60.65286101 2%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Shesgothistouch 0 24.44902035 4%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Baytown Babe 0 9.705832576 10%
102%
"so we do not know what the Betfair EXCHANGE Odds were"
We do know - have you forgotten about this page?
https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/
I am conscious that the Forum will destroy my formatting, but the BSPs were (implied percentages and percentage book are my calculation not BF's):
MENU_HINT EVENT_NAME EVENT_DT SELECTION_NAME WIN_LOSE BSP
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Kottoncandy Kisses 0 2.907053797 34%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Communicado 1 22.4873931 4%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Bling Springsteen 0 8.227023622 12%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 All The Juice 0 3.302890416 30%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Rewarded 0 21 5%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Special Sky 0 60.65286101 2%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Shesgothistouch 0 24.44902035 4%
USA / WillRD (US) 22nd Apr R1 1m Claim 22-04-20 19:15 Baytown Babe 0 9.705832576 10%
102%
A bit late I know but I'd just like to point out that betfair in fact gave me a twenty pound goodwill present after this fiasco.
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