Dancing Rave 1.10 Lingfield

I'm with you on this one, should beat the fav on their last running I think, especially if Frank does his usual

Favs had a lot less racing. Agree about headgear may work as has tendency to run freely over any trip and is often running on looking like it should be able to win a race.

I'm not convinced this type at Lingfield, jock booking has to be a bit interesting after last run though with Kirby 9-40 (5 expected) ft in saddle on an Omeara handicapper.

striding if the horse is slow away again,it will not win ,as at Lingfield it pays to be up with the pace and then kick clear.

I'd love to hear the instructions on this one.

ft kirby, ft headgear perhaps ft it's seen the front early in a race for ages.

There isn't a lot of pace looking likely to me. Javelin,Bint dandy and perhaps micks back up in trip ft poly?

If it's wanted Tangle surely they change the tactics to give it the best chance had plenty of speed may as well use it on free going sort round there.

ie none of them are front runners who like to get right on it and push a decent early pace.

They are saying on atr that micks is going to be held up.

* they were actually on about Bens in the first race striding FFS.

WD Tangle

wd kirby

perfect ride

great ride spencer as well

well done winners.

yes , spencer unlucky ….

well done lads, we got that one right, Frank at his best there!!!!

Cheers

Dwyer`s ride was better

Loving Spencer's car-park manouevre at the home turn

No experienced jockey can be that stupid.

Should be banned

And he was there for that ride????

The winner beats a well backed 2nd who ran rancid LTO

Both remarkable improvers when fancied

Yet this game isn’t corrupt

The stewards will need to be seen to doing something

But what at the risk of their own job

It will be carry on we accept your excuses

This game is as rancid as it comes, yet people still look at form

BAMOS tangy! I fancied this beast so strongly Lto ..you always feel cheated when they win Nto and you only have a fraction on

tbf TOPPY, if we had 20 above average punters split into 2 groups of form vs no form..which would you invest in to finish ahead? 

There's no doubt our minds will create many biases where there aren't any...but once we open a sound statistical project/study..the steer becomes much clearer.

This doesn't give the form gurus ALL the answers..but should they also be armed with the knowledge of the inclinations/habits of most trainers/jockeys, it's that what will see them outperform those working off inferior info.

People need to think of this game as one giant **** up jumbo sized jigsaw.. the more pieces you have, the better chance you have of solving the "complex"(aka cheating) problems that come with hoss punting.

https://www.jigsawplanet.com/?rc=play&pid=2cc0bc645c01

Very well said

Tbf - the biggest part of the form book is the market

You can’t trust the formbook to tell u of the plans for the horse, riding instruction or the well being and most trainers will tell u they work in an industry of greed, so my point is 

Why waste time with the formbook, have a look and make a shortlist then watch the market move, your winning % will shoot up, value only is in a winner, u don’t get paid out on obtaining the initial price

If it’s too good to be true then it is

That's rubbish.

You should be trying to go against the market, no good going with it getting on when it's already spoken.

So Hannon has the only runner in a maiden that has seen a race course, case could be made that the horse has an edge because experience. Market shows it’s a massive drifter leading up to race

Horse is rushed up to race on front end and then by 2f pole is back peddling- no chance of getting close to leaders and therefore mark not effected

Whether good enough or not to be involved in the finish, the market said it all, now 7/2 forecast horse can be backed at 12’s, u would back it not knowing the plans?

The market in most scenarios Is defining

Topman

My point is if you don't trust your own judgement and are paranoid that the market is always right whenever there is a drift or steamer you may as well give up. You certainly can't join in once the market is formed on these and expect to make a profit.

In most cases the extent of 'informed money' is overcooked on here of course retrospectively though it is always spot on. We just should forget all; the times it's wrong.

SE - it’s not paranoia- it’s using the tools at your disposal

Unless you’ve got the hotline to every yard in the land then u need the market

I can give you numerous examples since Saturday of well punted horses that I had a different view on at skinny odds that never ran a race?

So why would I be worried about the market?

I'm not naïve Of course it speaks sometimes but it often speaks and it's talking rubbish too.

"the biggest part of the form book is the market"

It's a GIANT indicator...but the market is only "right" over the course. Knowing the form inside out allows sharp money players to oppose the countless times that public money(sentimental/mug) is steering the market. That's why the combo of form+market checks will inevitably win out over 1 of either.

market checks are great when you were on earlier.

The idea that most of the moves positive and negative are informed from connections is laughable.

Backing steamers at near the bottom and laying drifters near the top is the quickest way to blow your stack on here.