State of jumps handicaps

no know it all here mate

i think flat suffers same fate to an extent due to vastly increased meetings , more lower class hard to spot skulduggery

for example one today drifted from 5s or something out to 50s , obviousely word spread nag had no chance so the folks got on , bit toooo greedy that one tho

chief reason liquidity down and racing moves down scale in sports betting

either stick to top class end racing or second guess THEM , hard choice when class racing thin on ground

Restrict your bets to Class 1 or 2 Handicap races, at Group 1 Tracks only.

I kinda like bad handicaps. Poorer horses need everything to fall right for them to win. A lot of them are regressing or just dodgepots. Give me a dodgy five runner five runner handicap on a Monday at Plumpton on a Monday or a Class 6 mile on the Southwell AW any day over the competitive Saturday or festival handicaps. Bad races are more likely to be won by horses that have external conditions (ground and track suitability etc) in their favour. Form, even current form shouldn`t be top of your list.

The runners are spread out more this winter because of the heavier ground. If you`ve spotted that Kirby likes to ready one, why are you telling everyone on here? That`s my know it all/ superlicious rant for the day. If you stick your head above the parapet around here ETID, someones going to take a shot at you.

It's never been any different.

Punters should try to understand why horse racing form is all over the place, with most horses never seeming to run two races alike.

A couple of other possible reasons for the wide margins. First is that the jockeys can now be banned for using the whip on a beaten horse, or for continuing in the race on a tired horse. Second is that most ordinary handicap chases now offer prize money down to 8th, and there's often no difference between the rewards for finishing 4th or finishing 8th.

Have a look at the eight runner handicap chase at Kempton today - everybody that finishes gets a prize, regardless of how far they are behind the winner at the line:

Penalty value  1st  £8,447.40 2nd  £2,480.40 3rd  £1,240.20 4th  £620.10 5th  £350.00 6th  £350.00 7th  £350.00 8th  £350.00

It is NOT all "fiddling" - and the same has been the case for years - as you acknowledge.

Over the Jumps - Winter racing often on rain-affected bad ground .
Horse makes a mistake - Jockey tries to get it back into the race, but proves difficult on bad ground - Horse, consequently, makes another mistake - Jockey practically gives up.

Handicapper does NOT drop you 'a bucketful' accordingly - as he, too, thinks - that run was too bad to be true.

More likely to get dropped for finishing 5th, beaten 12 or 15 lengths - as the Handicapper, mostly,  assumes that you were  trying, and 'doing your best'.

I ran some queries to compare the distances that horses finishing 5th, 6th, 7th and 8th were beaten by in NH handicaps, for 1998, 1999, and 2019.

here are the figures...

1998
5th - 28 lengths
6th - 33
7th - 39
8th - 43

1999
5th - 29
6th - 35
7th - 39
8th - 43

2019
5th - 25
6th - 30
7th - 34
8th - 38

That's just one little test, but, as a group, the horses finishing 5th to 8th finished closer up in 2019 than they did in 98/99.

..those were 'average' distances, for the finishing position, over the calendar year.