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28 Jul 19
18:14
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[img]https://community.cdnbf.net/community.betfair.com/user/mouse_muldoon/10...
I disagree with mouse and go further to state that over time someone following profitable betting systems will almost certainly come out ahead of punters solely relying on their interpretation of form.
"Of course there are good and bad methods to developing systems as there are with other more sophisticated approaches but do not be put off the journey by a doubting Thomas."
...same fing with the doubting mouses
...same fing with the doubting mouses
There must be a huge percentage of us that have tried and failed with one cistern or another.
To say they 'DO Work' is very , very vague.
To say they 'DO Work' is very , very vague.
Of course systems work and there are hundreds of winning systems.it's people that don't follow through after a loss.
in fact there is a system on youtube on the toss of a coin that cannot fail,but people think that systems don't work because they have not found one yet.
in fact there is a system on youtube on the toss of a coin that cannot fail,but people think that systems don't work because they have not found one yet.
Of course some ' systems ' show regular long term profit.
But it's a mix of selected. Races/ Courses. Horses with specific key indicators. Discipline with a seperate racing bank and sensible staking plan.
But it's a mix of selected. Races/ Courses. Horses with specific key indicators. Discipline with a seperate racing bank and sensible staking plan.
It must be me I've tried all (and there's many)the roulette winning betting systems shown on you tube and not a single one works for me
Betfair have hundreds of videoes showing you how to win money on Betfair.I also can't win after watching them .I must just be unlucky .or a mug and I don't need you to tell me
There used to be thousands of posters on here .theve all left
I get very depressed I think they must have won all the money they needed. All that's left is people like me who are too thick to win like them
I get very depressed I think they must have won all the money they needed. All that's left is people like me who are too thick to win like them
Your "system" certainly works,Facts judged on your profit on the ante-post forum big races thread...nice winner yesterday..well done...how you have the patience and discipline to stick to your rules,I don't know...certainly couldn't do it myself
A horse racing system (in a 100% book) relies on a significant number of people believing something that is not correct or ignoring some important aspect of the betting proposition. This makes the odds too long or too short. This must be time limited as losses sustained will change opinions. Eventually almost no systems will exist unless there are changes in the conditions of races.
Front running inside information will always be profitable but I don't know if that can be classed as a system.
Front running inside information will always be profitable but I don't know if that can be classed as a system.
All winning systems have a shelf life that is entirely dependant on the market and if the punter is allowed to bet at the right price,the latter is the key element to almost all punters being either a winner or loser and the same applies to any potential long term winning betting system.
The only cistern that can't possibly have a shelf-life is one that regularly lands on value. Cisterns born from form/stats etc only ensure that odds remain competitive.. which is y 'edge' is all you'll ever have..but all you'll ever need.
anyone who says that there is no winning system should become a bookmaker ,their system worked for years and years.But along came betfair with their generous super odds .NOW its very difficult to play the bookmaker on betfair,as it is difficult to get/ lay the prices you want to lay ,but a little science will tell you that for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.so think blue is my advice.
but bookmakers prove that there is a winning system in gambling and that gets rid of the widely held and false idea that there is no such thing as a winning system.
but bookmakers prove that there is a winning system in gambling and that gets rid of the widely held and false idea that there is no such thing as a winning system.
Surely everything qualifies as a system. The guy who uses the same process every day to find his bets is operating a system.
He just doesn't call it that.
He just doesn't call it that.
My mate loved a system...…..I hadn't seen for a while and bumped into him at Tesco.Asked him how was his system was going.He said what do you mean system 654.Last time I seen him he had given up.
Tobymugs guaranteed winning cistern still for sale..he wants £600,000 or best offer.
What's this email from Betfair to say your Exchange has moved to the Sportsbook. I hope it's saying access is simpler and straightforward.
Here's the original Mark Littlewood article from Sunday 28th July 2019, which coincidentally is the same date as that on which this topic was created.
Why Betting Systems Do Work
Peter Thomas had an article in the Racing Post recently which had a general mocking outlook upon racing systems and those that pursue them. This is the same guy who in a previous articles some years ago described Nick Mordin as mad as a box of frogs or words to that effect. What struck me about the recent article
https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-revealed/some-old-wives-tales-that-have-perplexed-punters-since-the-beginning-of-betting/367491
was firstly, why the hell am I reading the RP, a rag who’s biased reporting has resulted in me not picking it up in quite a number of years but more importantly I was struck how little the author seemed to know about systems. I come across this quite a lot, if a person does not understand something they decide not to increase their understanding but instead justify it by arguing for its worthlessness. Psychologist will have a term for this but it escapes me at the moment.
Do betting systems work and even if they don’t is pursuing them a worthwhile task?. The last part of that sentence might seem to demand an obvious NO!, but I will endeavor to convince you otherwise. Let us start with the first part of the question, are there any successful systems?. We must first define a system. My definition would be a set of rules which if followed to the letter by a number of people would result in all coming to the same decision or selection. Those rules may be simple or perhaps complicated but whichever they may be you and I would end up with the same selections if executed with the same data at the same time. They do not have to produce one bet per race or even one bet in all races but they must produce a profit long term and here is the important bit which Mr Thomas must have overlooked. That profit can be to any pre determined available price including Betfair SP although that price cannot be determined with hindsight.
Nick Mordin, the doyen of system writing, was himself collared on track by Big Mac’ some years ago as Nick promoted his book ‘Winning Without Thinking’. Mac eventually tried to get him to to admit that winning systems were really a myth and asked him to declare one on TV if such a thing did exist. Nick suggested backing all female jocks on the all weather as the betting public were still treating them as grossly inferior to male jockeys and hence sending their mounts of at inflated prices. This was true at the time (I have not checked recently) and is a good example of how being aware or even anticipating a system before it unfolds can be profitable but equally one must be aware of its potential shelf life.
There are benefits to system development beyond the uncovering of a successful system, one of which is the journey itself. Analysing data from a system perspective is a great introductory way to get a feel for the terrain you face as a punter. The amount of loss you need to overcome in order to become profitable and more importantly what factors move you closer even if in isolation or combination they do not quite achieve long term profit. The study will give you a greater feel for the biggest hurdle all punters have to overcome, namely variance. In other words the kind of winning and losing periods once can expect to experience even with a decent looking system.
Personally I stated off analysing systems before moving onto more advanced methods such as Machine Learning. I spent many hours back in the 1980’s in Colingdale Newspaper library pouring over back copies of the Sporting Life to produce a system that was doomed to mediocrity. I remember thinking with my Computer skills if I could only get hold of electronic data. The guys at RSB in the mid 1990’s did exactly that and system investigation moved on for Joe System.
Systems do work, they work in the sense that there are rule based methodical betting methods that produce consistent profits and they work because they give people a valuable apprenticeship in understanding data. Of course there are good and bad methods to developing systems as there are with other more sophisticated approaches but do not be put off the journey by a doubting Thomas.
Why Betting Systems Do Work
Peter Thomas had an article in the Racing Post recently which had a general mocking outlook upon racing systems and those that pursue them. This is the same guy who in a previous articles some years ago described Nick Mordin as mad as a box of frogs or words to that effect. What struck me about the recent article
https://www.racingpost.com/news/racing-revealed/some-old-wives-tales-that-have-perplexed-punters-since-the-beginning-of-betting/367491
was firstly, why the hell am I reading the RP, a rag who’s biased reporting has resulted in me not picking it up in quite a number of years but more importantly I was struck how little the author seemed to know about systems. I come across this quite a lot, if a person does not understand something they decide not to increase their understanding but instead justify it by arguing for its worthlessness. Psychologist will have a term for this but it escapes me at the moment.
Do betting systems work and even if they don’t is pursuing them a worthwhile task?. The last part of that sentence might seem to demand an obvious NO!, but I will endeavor to convince you otherwise. Let us start with the first part of the question, are there any successful systems?. We must first define a system. My definition would be a set of rules which if followed to the letter by a number of people would result in all coming to the same decision or selection. Those rules may be simple or perhaps complicated but whichever they may be you and I would end up with the same selections if executed with the same data at the same time. They do not have to produce one bet per race or even one bet in all races but they must produce a profit long term and here is the important bit which Mr Thomas must have overlooked. That profit can be to any pre determined available price including Betfair SP although that price cannot be determined with hindsight.
Nick Mordin, the doyen of system writing, was himself collared on track by Big Mac’ some years ago as Nick promoted his book ‘Winning Without Thinking’. Mac eventually tried to get him to to admit that winning systems were really a myth and asked him to declare one on TV if such a thing did exist. Nick suggested backing all female jocks on the all weather as the betting public were still treating them as grossly inferior to male jockeys and hence sending their mounts of at inflated prices. This was true at the time (I have not checked recently) and is a good example of how being aware or even anticipating a system before it unfolds can be profitable but equally one must be aware of its potential shelf life.
There are benefits to system development beyond the uncovering of a successful system, one of which is the journey itself. Analysing data from a system perspective is a great introductory way to get a feel for the terrain you face as a punter. The amount of loss you need to overcome in order to become profitable and more importantly what factors move you closer even if in isolation or combination they do not quite achieve long term profit. The study will give you a greater feel for the biggest hurdle all punters have to overcome, namely variance. In other words the kind of winning and losing periods once can expect to experience even with a decent looking system.
Personally I stated off analysing systems before moving onto more advanced methods such as Machine Learning. I spent many hours back in the 1980’s in Colingdale Newspaper library pouring over back copies of the Sporting Life to produce a system that was doomed to mediocrity. I remember thinking with my Computer skills if I could only get hold of electronic data. The guys at RSB in the mid 1990’s did exactly that and system investigation moved on for Joe System.
Systems do work, they work in the sense that there are rule based methodical betting methods that produce consistent profits and they work because they give people a valuable apprenticeship in understanding data. Of course there are good and bad methods to developing systems as there are with other more sophisticated approaches but do not be put off the journey by a doubting Thomas.
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