King George result as follows.........

The one that finishes in front (if any) of Native River will find itself in the winners enclosure.

Native River was 6th,Might Bite 7th.

Might Bite
Native River
Double Shuffle

I really don’t get the appeal of Politologue who I actually think it is the most inferior of the top 7 in the market. The other day Paul Nicholls was trying to compare his profile to Kauto Star. I can’t see that myself but obviously he knows about racing horses more than I do! The most revealing thing is the Irish haven’t bothered at all. Given the way they run their races in Ireland I think they fear a bold run from the front rather than a hold up horse. I don’t necessarily agree with this analysis that something from behind will benefit from the strong gallop. I can easily see a reverse of the Gold cup this time, with  Might Bite stalking taking NR. That has to be the most logical outcome. MB’s jumping wasn’t actually that bad - he just ran out of petrol. Anyone who thinks Waiting Patiently will turn up after no run and beat this lot is bananas, I cannot see why anyone would risk that.

thistlecrack waiting patiently and native river combined reverse forecasts and tricasts or me

Fair comment ETID,in terms of PFN he swore that Politologue was an out an out 2 miler after the Tingle Creek and the RP last week stated connections have always insisted he is a stayer.

Clueless all of them,I backed him for last years KG pre the TC,advised him for the TC live on RP and said "KG winner" pre and post race.The reply was "Shame you did'nt back him for next years KG" I had and read "The experts" with a great deal of humour but anger at the same time.Misled everyone,possibly innocently but with extreme stupidity.

If he wins it will be no thanks to Hales or PFN and yet we know they will take all the plaudits on live TV,us minions are pretty good judges are we not?

personally I think if you take  Bristol de mai last 2 runs since wind surgery and his age he comes out best of the lot.

That could well be the case mepoor.

Unfortunately i have not been visited by the winner but i have been visited by a 'vision' of the backstraight on the 2nd circuit.

In short it involves a very strong pace with one horse who nails the 4 on the far side and cruises up to the lead while some of the other big guns are toiling behind and smacking fences.

Based on this vision ive got three that have the jumping ability and one of them doesnt have enough speed to win.
One of the two left is a lovely price

Good luck all and happy christmas!

Native River wins

Thistlecrack has to have a great chance.Cd winner.His last run was very good.

Might Bite leads at the first,outjumped by Thistlecarck.....4th last BDM leads by 2 l,Thistlecrack stalking,Might Bite looking like he might be pulled up.........3 out BDM leads,Thistlecrack going well in 2nd,Waiting patiently waiting in the wings in 3rd,Politiologue still going well.This looks like it is down to 4 approaching the 2nd last where BDM leads but the stalkers are closing,Waiting Patiently pushed along,Thistlecrack comes under a ride but staying on.

Politologue been in unknown territory for a while goes well,one to jump and BDM is resolute,at the last BDM joined by Thistlecrack,Politologue now being asked for everything.....as they go up the run in it is Politologue by a half now by a length.......Thistlecrack stays on to pass BDM for 2nd.

A new kid on the block but will he get another 2 furlongs in the Gold Cup?

Nice dream but Native River leads all the way and has them spreadeagled two out, wins going away by two lengths.

What's wind-op got to do with BDM and Haydock? He won emphatically at Haydock the year before yet passed by MB here a month later. Similarly, the previous 3 seasons thus inferring wind-op had no bearing, before or after; the Haydock phenomenon is the more logical explanation eg Harry Angel and Ascot.

Two horses with the best form ie Native River and Might Bite; friendly weather all this week at Kempton (good to soft).

Missed Mass,devastated.Not sure the OH will have said a prayer...........will tell you post KG.....have a good one everybody and feel free to post up your thoughts.Do not be intimidated just say what you think or feel,Im not going in this church despite their thoughts.

Nice write ups, here's how I see it panning out:

At the off Coneygree, Bristol De Mai & Native River to contest the early running, with all taking turns to lead.
Might Bite just in behind with Politologue, both tracking the pace..
held up Double Shuffle, Waiting Patiently & Tea for Two with Thistlecrack & Clan Des Obeaux.

The emphasis will be on slick, fast jumping, and BDM will not like the pace and fall away 3 or 4 out
like last year. Clan Des Obeaux will find it too hot I suspect and fade out of contention.

The lightly-raced 11yo Coneygree will keep lobbing away and jumping well, with Native River closely in tow.

Two fences out: Native River caught slightly for pace and Might bite looming up, but it is Waiting Patiently
that looks the main threat and he is cruising easily.

Last fence: Waiting Patiently jumps into a clear lead & extends his advantage on the run-in, Coneygree very game to hold 2nd.
Might Bite close 3rd, with Double Shuffle & Tea for Two fighting out 4th place with Thistlecrack in bunch for 4th..
Native River staying on again at the finish.
Politologue not really seeing out the trip and eased off when all chance gone.

1 Waiting Patiently
2 Coneygree [1.5 length]
3 Might Bite [Neck]

Lots of people taking leave of their senses!
- Toby doesn’t even mention Native a River in his analysis??
- Kefir Man thinks Coneygree will finish lengths ahead of Native River??

Forget Politologue. He will fare no better than Al Ferof.
When Might Bite hoses in you will all kick yourself for over analysing this and trying to be too clever.

ETID, I would love to see Native River win or go close, but just don't see the course
& distance playing to his strengths.
He certainly has the form but it's not always as simple as that.
I will be happy to be proven wrong, but horses for courses ..

Waiting Patiently is presently 25/1 for the Gold Cup; fav if winning this.

I honestly think the wind op could have made massive difference, yes Bristol de mai  likes haydock , the time they done last time at haydock compared to his usual soft ground wins tells me he is a compleatly different animal now.

IF Bristol De Mai or Native River win at Kempton, they will the big un in March. Might Bite might be the one on Boxing Day but it will be a fascinating race.

Merry Xmas .

Native River
Might Bite
Tea For Two

Tea For Two has had the op , had his two prep races and he likes Kempton .

might bite
native river
coneygree

potitolugue looked ll over the winner three out but emptied out thus exploding nicholls head.

i do think that native river looks a cracking e/w bet at 6s

Might bite will pi55 it.

The more I look at it, the more i think nothing can actually win!

Leaning towards Politologue. I'm not certain that he'll stay, but he does little when he hits the front and always seems to be keeping a little back, so think he may last home. Latest victory has been franked and his only 2 defeats from his last 7 races where against Altior over 2m, where he faced an almost impossible task.

Might Bite is not for me. Won poor renewal last year and latest run appalling. Thistlecrack not good enough nowadays and Clan Des Obeaux appears about 10-12lb shy of the very best on the formbook.

Bristol De Mai's flop last year worries me and he rarely seems to run two races alike, although he is unfairly maligned by many. Native River was beaten around here by Tea For Two as a novice and, though his comeback run wasn't as bad as people are making out, I just don't think Kempton will suit.

I understand that many close to Waiting Patiently don't believe that he will stay 3 miles. I'm not sure he will either and surely no easy task to win this without a prep.

So Politologue for me, but not an easy one to call

bristol de mai for me after much chopping and changing beaten 4 of this field at haydock  dont think he is a one track pony  decent rpr of 182 ,and a bit of value  at around 7s or better

Fair enough I have had a few Brandys but if Politologue Wins I will glady retire from the forum for good,not saying he wont run a big Race but he wont be Winning....Might Bite for me.

Of the newbies: Clan Des Obeaux needs to improve massively; Politologue - stamina taken on trust; Waiting Patiently - a silly price, and stamina unknown.

Over-rans: BDM is a Haydock specialist; Thistlecrack - inconsistent jumping; Double Shuffle and Tea For Two have had their chances; Coneygree 4 yrs last winning here, and too fragile.

Personally, two main protagonists ie Might Bite and Native River - reigning champion against Gold Cup winner/conqueror; ideal ground for former, trip inadequate for latter. The ground is good to soft with dry weather expected. So, take your pick.

Might Bite is on the drift (7/2) whereas Waiting Patiently has been well backed (4/1) since yesterday.

Politologue, will he stay? Well exactly the same question was asked about Desert Orchid, Best Mate, Kicking King, Kauto Star and Cue Card until they proved they did stay. And the reason they got 3M (and more) was that they didn't waste energy making mistakes on the way round.

I'll be backing Politologue because I reckon he has the jumping part of the job off pat and thus will get 3M with no problem. He's never been beaten in a race on a right handed track yet after seven goes, whereas he's 2/9 the other way round.

And Azertyuiop and Al Ferof and quite a few others.
You missed out Edredon Bleu a much more likely non-stayer from your side of the argument (and Rose Park I believe but he was well before my time ).

I'm surprised Nicholls had not pitched Politologue here before until now. Anyway, Waiting Patiently easily disposed of him at Haydock.

I like the look of last year’s tricast.

MB to bounce back, Double Shuffle match fit from his race course gallop with Definitely Red for 2nd and Tea42 to run past beaten horses for a tricast blowout (btw T42 holds a G1 verdict over NR here at Kempton as a novice so who knows).

—-

Side note...did anyone see the big race on Japan a couple days ago? The Arina Kinen. The nutters ran their star jumper in it. Finished a respectable 9th. Would be like if the Arc allowed geldings and Bauveur D’Air ran it. Just thought it was kind of cool.

Arkle was intended to run in the Queen Alexandra on two occasions I think. Not quite the same I know but it was more competitive in those days as geldings were barred from the Gold Cup. Would have been interesting.

If going soft or sticky-

Native River
Waiting Patiently
Might Bite

If good/soft

Waiting Patiently
Native River
Thistlecrack

Native River
Bristol De Mai
Tea For Two
In that order, I'm doing forecasts and tricasts gl all !

The last Welsh National winner to win the King George was Burrough Hill Lad in 1984 he was also well beaten by Wayward Lad in the 1985 renewal finishing out of the first 3 places. I don't know if many WN winners have competed in the KG since then but it would be interesting know.

* to know.

Not many I would imagine.
Totally different races.

In native rivers favour though, he can jump and coneygree will run the finish out of the faster horses.

This isnt to say i fancy native river. Its just a crazy race where you can make a really good case for loads of horses or rule them out just as easily!

Native River to catch Coneygree late on for me.

The history of the KG is littered with back-to-back winners. MB would have won the novices by 20L 2 years ago, picked up the main prize last year and will surely be absolutely spot-on for today for a repeat.

Native River is the only horse for me and don't forget the two Prescott runners at Wolves to end his two blank months.

I first went to the KG in the days of Galloway Braes and Halloween and there have been many surprises but none worse than Arkle breaking down in 1966.

I feel if Thistlecrack jumps well it would take a lot of beating

A fascinating race I think Coneygree will run a big race and have done him e/w 4 places

have also done f/c with BDM.

Might Bite
Waiting Patiently
Native River

After reading all of our posts, I can only say how little we know !

But at least I put up Isle of Avalon and have Klass Action to come.

I was there for Arkle's last race old git...even though he broke a bone he still finished third !

or was it 2nd;so long ago !

Posy 2nd to Dormant

A bookies' benevolent day thro' and thro, and at x'mas too.

Posy. The day of Arkle's injury I had a tip for 'Duke' Nicholson's horse in the last race that came from David Mould's girlfriend. I worked with her brother but unfortunately he left soon after and the good information stopped. I cant remember its name and had expected a good price but from distant memory it was only 7/2. I had been in a pub with a friend a couple of days before and he passed my tip on to the manager who in return gave us one for the following week called Tower of London that won at 12/1.

Not that it matters but I think that Tower of London should have been Tower Bridge

Sometime next week i'll try to find that boxing day racecard oldgit and will look up the Nicholson horse.

Not trying to steal your thunder posy but allow me to save you the trouble.

Posy: How big a race card collection do you have ?

Not sure oldgit;quite a few  between 1965 and 1975 ;after that I emigrated to Hong Kong and when I returned in 1982 I stopped saving them.They're somewhere in the attic !

Thanks top2rated...that meeting's racecard holds a lot of memories for me especially the King George itself with the 3 placed horses and the likes of Foinavon an also ran.

Some great names on that racecard.   The one at the bottom - Trained Miss Sinclair (The redoubtable Auriol), Ridden by RAtkins claiming 3lbs.  The latter is often at the Plumpton meetings (and meets up with Iron Ray Goldstein)

He also used to do tips in the members bar at Goodwood during Glorious. He wasn't much good but he is a very nice man. My granddaughter added his signature to her autograph list.  I explained that he used to be a jockey and that he was known for having RA painted on his helmet.  I struggled to explain to her why the story made me giggle.

In those days blackbarn Ron Atkins was at the cutting edge of self promotion with his initials on his helmet. I remember Ray ;he was a jockey who rather like (his son ?) Mark specialised running at Fontwell and Plumpton.

Posy:
I didn't realise that I'd seen Foinavon running.
The day he won the National I was listening to the race while watching Chelsea play a cup tie against one of the Sheffield teams at the Bridge.