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Roselier
19 Dec 18 14:09
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Apr 06
| Topic/replies: 371 | Blogger: Roselier's blog
It seems, to me, that there have been far more fallers and unseats this current season than at a corresponding stage in all previous years. Does anyone have the stats? I can only assume that it is down to the current mediocrity of the jockeys.

I've learned that of all jockeys to have had over 100 rides this season, James Best falls off with the most regularity (he did it again today). James Bowen is up there as is Adam Wedge and Alan Johns. Brian Hughes has fallen off more times than anyone but of course he has had more rides than most.

Is the standard at an all time low in the professional era?
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Report ged December 19, 2018 4:17 PM GMT
Not supported by facts.

Up to Dec 15th for each of last 5 years...

2018:
F - 722
U - 478

2017:
F - 756
U - 455

2016:
F - 738
U - 545

These of course are just the bare numbers, and take no account of the number of runners (never mind any variation in mix of race types, discipline, experience of horse, state of ground, all of which might have a bearing).
Report ged December 19, 2018 4:17 PM GMT
...each of last *3 years.
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 5:29 PM GMT
Roselier - "James Best falls off with the most regularity (he did it again today)".   

How many falls and unseats has James Best had this "current season"?   


nb Six out of every Four people do not understand statistics!!
Report Dr Crippen December 19, 2018 5:32 PM GMT
A good jockey never falls or gets unseated.
Report Dr Crippen December 19, 2018 5:33 PM GMT
Or jumps off either.
Report Dr Crippen December 19, 2018 5:34 PM GMT
It's when they can't see a stride and don't present the horse at the fence properly.

I learned all that from reading the forum.
Report sageform December 19, 2018 7:50 PM GMT
It might be worth looking at brought down stats. Jockeys persist in jumping blind by following closely behind another horse so if the leading one falls, so does the one behind. I would also be interested to know how much width restrictions (sometimes half a of a fence is dolled off) affect fallers and horses brought down. Are maximum safety numbers adjusted when the course is narrowed? So many factors at work.
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 7:58 PM GMT
Good point Sageform.    Mind you, I bet Roselier knows how many times James Best has been brought down!   He has the stats on his Falls and Unseats apparentlyLaugh
Report Roselier December 19, 2018 9:25 PM GMT
James Best has 6 falls and 5 unseats from 157 rides this season and operates at a strike rate of 3%. You have to think that Walk In The Mill must be a damned good horse.

The most decked jockey Brian Hughes has had 20 falls and two unseats from 600 rides. 7 of the 22 were favourites.
Report Roselier December 19, 2018 9:30 PM GMT
Cheltenham has has the most fallers this season already with 41. Worcester and Uttoxeter are next mainly because they have been on throughout the summer. Haven't looked at Kelso yet but seeing as though they don't tend to jump obstacles after sunrise you'd think they'd be quite low......like the sun I guess.
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 9:42 PM GMT
Roselier what is the source of your James Best data.  It does not match mine!.  You sound authoritative thoughWink
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 10:13 PM GMT
For this season, from your 157 rides (which I agree) I have TWO UR'S and one Fall.  One of us is seriously wrong. Is it me?
Report Burkey1885 December 19, 2018 10:19 PM GMT
U can bet your bottom dollar more faller and unseats
Since thay are able to lay !
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 10:22 PM GMT
Burkey - Are you able to explain your post?  It makes little sense as posted.
Report foxy December 19, 2018 10:24 PM GMT
blackbarn

i have just gone back to october 1st 5 ur and 3 fell.
Report Magic__Daps December 19, 2018 10:25 PM GMT
Yes Burkey - since the exchanges, jockeys are wilfully jumping off at high speed to make a few quid......LaughLaugh
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 10:33 PM GMT
Foxy - "i have just gone back to october 1st 5 ur and 3 fell"

Thanks Foxy, Do you mean October 17??? He was posting the current jumps season. He even has James Best's rides for the period (157) correct as per the Racing Post. However he seems to have an apples and pears issue with the ur/fall data
Report foxy December 19, 2018 10:41 PM GMT
2018 blackbarn first ur ffos las october 20th
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 10:54 PM GMT
Foxy, yes I have that one. do you want to share all of your or his "qualifiers".
Report foxy December 19, 2018 11:03 PM GMT
ur ludlow today

ur hereford 28th november

ur wincanton 22nd november

ur chepstow 7th november

ur ffos las 20th october

fall wincanton 6th december

fall ascot 18th november

fall chepstow 21st november

thats from the form book
Report blackbarn December 19, 2018 11:10 PM GMT
Foxy - I retreat tail between my legs. My data is sourced from the RP Jockeys performance database but from your data this seems flawed.
Report foxy December 19, 2018 11:18 PM GMT
its not normally something i  take much notice of blackbarn but well done to the opening poster for pointing it out 5 ur seems an awful lot,he suggests the standard is lower than for a long time ,i would have to say it was without knowing the stats.
Report Burkey1885 December 19, 2018 11:21 PM GMT

Dec 19, 2018 -- 4:25PM, Magic__Daps wrote:


Yes Burkey - since the exchanges, jockeys are wilfully jumping off at high speed to make a few quid......


Next u will be saying no connections are laying LaughLaugh
You be watching too many ruby Walsh tv adds ,magic  !

Report mouse muldoon December 19, 2018 11:24 PM GMT
On the face of it a cunning plan, but too dangerous without a stunt jockey.
Report Burkey1885 December 19, 2018 11:29 PM GMT
The best thing to do wd be too looked at tve laying data on the fallers unseats  and compair to compmeted races
Every transaction leaves a paper trail , enough said
Report Magic__Daps December 20, 2018 9:30 AM GMT
Next u will be saying no connections are laying

That has absolutely nothing to do with this thread (in reality). This is about fallers and unseats, and if you think jockeys are jumping off left, right and centre because they are laying their mounts you are deluded. Have their been fallers and unseats that look dubious, yes there has and I am not doubting that. But to think there are more fallers due to people laying them is so far off the mark (even for your usual built in bullsh1t rubbish) Not everything is a conspiracy, and it just makes you sound like a typical mug punter in the bookies.
Report One Nation December 20, 2018 10:13 AM GMT
I thought the general stat was a jockey comes off (fall, unseat, brought down etc) about 1 in every 10 rides. That seems a bit high in my view, but it's often quoted. I wonder if it's 1 in 10 'failed to complete' and includes pulled ups - that sounds more plausible.

Brian Hughes 22 falls/unseats from 600 rides is 3.7%, which is very good if the 10% average is correct.
Report kevo December 20, 2018 1:57 PM GMT
James Best fell in the 2nd race at Exeter today and then The Kings Writ who fell at the last when clear and ridden by Best at Chepstow last time, wins today ridden by Harry Cobden.
Report Roselier December 20, 2018 6:23 PM GMT
Foxy

You omitted his spills on the following

10/5/18 Worcester
5/6/18 Bangor
11/6/18 Worcester
21/9/18 Newton Abbott

He has managed to fall off 3 Woolacott horses this season.
Report Burkey1885 December 21, 2018 6:43 AM GMT
Magic it has everything too do with this thread
Your clearly stating all jockeys are whiter than white
And have never tipped off a horse ,  like I said your be watching
Too many tv adds ! You never watch any old j Francine
Fur Fred winter runs odds on shots commical ! Laugh

Clearly taken in by the ruby add and the 30 mph
Easily led , it’s very easy it’s the way you roll
Paratroopers can hit the ground at 40 mph
Straight down , it’s the way you rolls that limits any damage
All am saying is until your look at the lay bets including in running
On unseats  you can’t state anything !  Be interesting to see if
These regulars unseat more on shortys and in fast ground
Be less impact on soft .  Just look at betting patterns on the jockey runs
On completed ones conspaired to unseats ! Surprised
Report sageform December 21, 2018 8:06 AM GMT
I'm sure it is very rare but I knew a jockey (sadly no longer alive) who admitted one deliberate "fall" as the horse he was riding was going too well to "stop" by any other means. It would have been at least 50 years ago now. In those days a jockey who didn't do as he was told didn't get rides for long. They were seen as servants by old school owners and trainers.
Report Magic__Daps December 21, 2018 8:14 AM GMT
Burkey:

Your clearly stating all jockeys are whiter than white? Where am I? There are suspect rides daily, and most are probably just riding to instructions and some are just inept. Some will be riding for their own gain, and that is pretty obvious. Why would you be falling on purpose when there are a lot more easier ways to lose a race than to put yourself in danger of injury??

Paratroopers can hit the ground at 40mph. Thanks for that.

All am saying is until your look at the lay bets including in running On unseats  you can’t state anything You kind of contradict yourself there don't you? So what you are saying is I cannot state anything until I look at the lay bets, but you on the other hand can state whatever you like with no facts to back you up?


Not everything is a conspiracy. If the faller numbers have gone up since the exchanges then surely you would be able to recall hundreds and hundreds of dodgy falls and unseats over the previous years? 1200 average (geds stats at top of the thread) per year over each of the last 3 years, exchange been going 18 years so let's say approx 22000 unseats/fallers in that period. I would guess with your memory you could easily stick up 100 rides (a measly 0.5%) that were very suspect?
Report Magic__Daps December 21, 2018 8:19 AM GMT
sageform - I am certainly not saying there hasn't been any through the life of racing (or even over the last 18 years), but if there were jockeys jumping off daily/weekly there would be numerous threads on here. This place goes overboard on any suspect ride or even just a poor ride, and I can't recall too many threads about a deliberate fall over the years.
Report sageform December 21, 2018 8:35 AM GMT
Agreed. It is very rare and jockeys with any ability can soon find another yard if they feel uncomfortable with the one they are in. Educational rides will always be part of the sport but deliberately stopping an experienced horse is rare. It is such a long and expensive job to get a NH horse ready to run well that any owner who gets that far does not want to risk injury to the horse any more often than is necessary so if they are ready to run they are usually trying their best. The average number of runs per horse season is about 5 as a guess and that would not include the ones that don't race at all. We are 8 months into the NH season and there are still plenty of runners having their first or second runs this weekend.
Report muse December 21, 2018 9:01 AM GMT
Not that I have any time for the more paranoid bits of this thread, but surely if that were going on you would want to be looking only at unseats, not at falls. Anyone who thinks jockeys are contriving to  get horses to fall to ensure they don't win really does know nothing about the sport.

However, to agree with Magic and sageform, there are easier and safer ways to go about ensure one doesn't win.


Anyway, leaving conspiracies aside, it would be really intersting to mine the f u and b data over a long period and analyse it properly ie by number of runners, number of races, number of runners in raves where it has happened etc.
Report Slicer December 26, 2018 11:51 AM GMT
Keep an eye open today. Boxing Day can throw up some strange results and provides an excellent opportunity with so many meetings for trainers to get their monet to spend in the sales! It only takes a spoonful of Xmas pud to push a jokie off at the jumps. I am not implying anything untoward because we all know racing is straight and every single runner at every single meeting is run on its merits. Its just that perhaps a jokie indulged more than he, she or it should.
Report jinxy December 26, 2018 10:20 PM GMT
Burkely has a very valid point ! We all know that all jockey`s ride to orders ( which involves cheating on some occasions  ) and jockeys have jumped off a horse in races before ! I`m pretty sure that a jockey called Fox was done for tyhis ??? Either way people will do most things for money !  ,lol
Report newmugpunter December 27, 2018 11:42 AM GMT
Filter it by Ruby Walsh , how many times he falls off at the last 2 fences , he has ruined the reputation of many great horses
Report foxy December 28, 2018 9:51 AM GMT
roselier

i had not missed those you said as i pointed out to blackbarn i only went back to the 1st october.
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