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IDKW
20 Sep 18 09:27
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Date Joined: 19 Nov 09
| Topic/replies: 2,612 | Blogger: IDKW's blog
Same old.........Arbers griping about Arbers.
Nothing about their runners scrambling to get on in the high street.

“Illuminating look at the industry” Laugh
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Report freddiewilliams • September 20, 2018 3:14 PM BST
S
Sports say only banned less than ten people
Report TheFear • September 20, 2018 3:40 PM BST
thought yesterday's barry dennis whinge was more interesting
Report foxy • September 20, 2018 3:52 PM BST
The racing post did very well to get interviews with two bookmakers who are normally shy of publicity.
Report TheFear • September 20, 2018 4:07 PM BST
haha just need Banks to get the treble up.

I wonder who the PRO PUNTER is tomorrow.
Report foxy • September 20, 2018 4:23 PM BST
The days when there were no more than a dozen around are gone now there are thousands of them to chose from you only need to read this forum to understand how many are now pro punters so guessing who tomorrow’s is will be tricky.
Report TheFear • September 20, 2018 4:30 PM BST
im gonna guess... Matt Williams.
Report foxy • September 20, 2018 4:42 PM BST
You may well be right with that the fear the one thing for sure it won’t be one who has quietly gone about his business over many years.
Report dambuster • September 20, 2018 6:29 PM BST
Pro punter, it might be Track suit Dave
Report mrcombustible • September 20, 2018 7:08 PM BST
The battlefield has long since moved from the racecourse to online. And due to the advent of Betfair the war is no longer waged purely between bookmaker and punter. However, despite the wildly different surroundings, one constant remains in that there are sharp minds able to make a comfortable living through betting on sport.

"One of the big things I would say about pro-punting is having the ability to adapt," says Neil Channing, 50, who has held a variety of roles in the betting industry – from odds-compiler, to on-course bookmaker, to tipster – but has always described himself as a professional gambler and been flexible in his approach to stay a step ahead.

He adds: "Don't listen to anyone who says the game's gone. The game's not gone – it's just changed.

"Before Betfair I used to bet into markets with bigger overrounds, but it was easier – it was me against the odds-compiler, and I know what it's like to be in that environment. Someone would say, 'Who's doing the bowls? It's the world championships, the only event of the year we're going to do, does anyone actually know anything about it?' Someone else would say, 'Oh yeah, my grandad plays, I'll call him'. And that's basically how the bowls got priced up. In the old days at [spread betting firm] IG when Big Brother started we had one guy whose missus used to help price it up for us!

"Now because of Betfair it's the collective opinion – the wisdom of crowds – which is hard to beat. The internet has also changed a lot, just in terms of how readily available information is."

While horseracing remains a key source of income, the biggest change Channing has made to his punting is focusing more on football, to the extent he estimates nearly 60 per cent of his turnover now comes from the sport. This is primarily due to finding it easier to get on.

The issue of restrictions – which has also affected a growing number of recreational gamblers to such an extent the matter was debated in parliament this year – is nothing new to pro punters, whose accounts will have been long since closed or rendered effectively useless due to tiny limits.

Some will choose to open accounts in the names of friends or relatives – in breach of bookmaker terms and conditions – while others, such as Channing, will utilise shops, where it is possible to retain a degree of anonymity and, primarily, the betting exchanges. 

"Pretty much all my bets Monday to Friday I just do on the exchanges. On Saturday and at big meetings I will also use the firms," he says.

"If you go into a betting shop on a wet Wednesday and try to bet a couple of horses for a few hundred quid each you stand out like a sore thumb."

"If you go into a betting shop on a wet Wednesday and try to bet a couple of horses for a few hundred quid each you stand out like a sore thumb," says Neil Channing
"If you go into a betting shop on a wet Wednesday and try to bet a couple of horses for a few hundred quid each you stand out like a sore thumb," says Neil Channing
Chris Bourchier
That approach marks a significant departure from the many times Channing used to undertake a daily eight-mile walk encompassing 22 betting shops, but missing out on some obvious short-term opportunities is a conscious decision taken to maximise long-term returns.

"I had a friend who was getting a lot of money out of betting shops, but he kept getting barred. He's basically given up. He decided he couldn't adapt the way he was playing, but I have chosen to play in a slightly different way, betting on things bookmakers want you to bet on," he adds.

"When there's a big tennis major I could have £25,000 on the women's final if I wanted to, and it wouldn't be that difficult.

Bruce Millington: Hard to defend Serena's US Open final outburst

"And on the horses I thought it's not like I'm doing so much better at Southwell on a Tuesday than Ascot on a Saturday that it's worth bothering [trying to get on in shops].

"I decided a long time ago that rather than sit and whinge about not being able to get on it was just better to change how I operate to give myself longevity."

Professional punters tend to be a secretive lot but Channing, a Sky Poker brand ambassador, regular contributor to Racing UK's Luck On Sunday and prolific Tweeter, is well known and often receives offers that serve as a reminder getting paid out is just as important as getting on.

"I've hardly ever been robbed by people putting on [bets] for me – I'm very selective over who puts on," he says. "But I get strangers contacting me all the time on Twitter saying stuff like, 'I've been losing with bet365, maybe we could use the account together'. I'm thinking, 'Yeah. . . but you're a random stranger with a gambling problem'. I'd love to have a bet365 account but if it's 50-50 I get done over in the end, it's not worth it. With longevity, I'd rather work to a smaller margin and know I'm getting paid."

Perhaps a common perception of a pro punter is someone with iron discipline, only pouncing when the margins are overwhelmingly in their favour, and doing so with eye-wateringly large bets. This is a myth Channing is keen to tackle.

He says: "People think pro punters don't have many bets but when they do they're huge. Most pro punters I know have a ridiculously large number of bets because their average bet size is much smaller than it used to be.

"If you are trying to bet in massive amounts very infrequently how do you get enough on? What sort of tank do you need? The variance is going to be very high. That's not a feasible way of being a pro punter.

"It's a misconception you're having a couple of bets a day and smoking a fat cigar the rest of the time."

How to become a bookie: preparing for the perils of life in the betting jungle

Another overlooked aspect is the significant barrier to entry in becoming a pro punter. Licences or swanky equipment is not required to start punting away on Betfair in the comfort of your living room – but you are going to need some capital, and probably more than you'd think.

Tony Bloom: best pro punter in the world says Neil Channing
Tony Bloom: best pro punter in the world says Neil Channing
Charlie Crowhurst/Getty Images
Channing says: "Tony Bloom, the best football punter in the world, is aiming for one per cent [return on investment]. Say you're a young kid and you decide you're very good [betting on] at Premier League football and want to start up and can get a one per cent edge. You might have three bets during a round of fixtures, plus you do a couple of the cup games so, say, 40 weeks. That's 120 games a year and you make one per cent. What does you average stake need to be to make about £20,000? You need to bet nearly £17,000 a game. Who is betting £17,000 a game? Not some young kid out of school.

"Or if you bet on golf outright you might have a high ROI but extremely high variance. Some people might win 30 per cent over a ten-year period, but if you bet three or four 16-1 shots in every tournament you could be having 14 bets a week, and you could easily go three or four weeks without a winner.

"If you want to make £20,000 a year and you've got less than £20,000 in the bank to start with, you're not going to make it unless you give yourself a really good chance of losing the lot.

"Making five per cent across all bets, if you bet on a variety of sports, is a pretty good target, so if you want to make £20,000 then you will have to bet £400,000 in a year."

While Channing believes "there are so many angles for making money" he sounds a more cautious note for the future, with external factors potentially jeopardising the viability of punting for a living.

"If you'd asked me 15 years ago would there ever be a point during my lifetime when it would be impossible to make a living as a professional punter I'd have said no way," he says. "Now I'm not so sure. All these customer checks and banks clamping down has made things tricky. If you try to pay with a £50 note nowadays people think you're a drug dealer.

Pro punter Neil Channing wonders whether we will still be using cash In five years'
Pro punter Neil Channing wonders whether we will still be using cash In five years'
Alan Crowhurst/Getty Images
"In the last year I haven't heard many complaints from pro punters about bookmakers closing them down – they're more worried about banks shutting their accounts! We're moving into a cashless society. In five years' time will we still be using cash? I'm not sure. And having to do everything on card will make things very difficult."

Liquidity not there in the morning
Another experienced professional punter, who agreed to share his experience granted anonymity, also advocates the necessity of being flexible.

He says: "I have one fairly major bookmaker who will take my bets and they essentially use the information to keep certain horses onside – which is what I think bookmaking should be about. That was the way it was done in the old days and that's the way it should still be.

"However, the vast majority of my betting is done on Betfair and close to the off. Ten to 15 years ago liquidity was much better so you could get a reasonable bet on in the morning. That isn't the case anymore, you have to wait until near the off, but that's fine, and I've adapted the way I do things – as have many punters."

One change which has caused the punter to modify his betting is the increase in fixtures, which has made it nigh-on impossible for a form-based punter to adequately keep on top of all forms of racing. In 2019 there will be a record 1,511 meetings, whereas in 1989 there were only 1,037 fixtures.

Flat breaks and earlier finishes feature in record fixture list for 2019

He adds: "I think there is definitely too much racing. When I started betting a long time ago there was no Sunday racing, no all-weather racing and if there was a lovely cold snap in the winter you would sometimes get three or four weeks with no racing at all. There was less evening racing – on a Tuesday you might have just one or two meetings – and it just gave people a chance to breathe. It meant people could tackle pretty much all the racing all year, unlike now. I specialise significantly now, whereas 25-30 years ago it was possible to keep on top of everything.

"However, I understand some will argue there isn't too much racing as it caters for the needs of racecourses and bookmakers."

Detailing how he specialises, the punter adds: "I only bet on jump racing. Most people are unable to process all the information if they're looking at everything. You've got to give yourself time to think.

"If you're trying to look at every aspect of racing I don't think you can do it. I certainly couldn't. I still love Flat racing and watch the big meetings, but I don't bet seriously on it.

"What I've found I'm good at – and enjoy – is watching racing and working out how what I've just seen is likely to influence future events."

Minimum bet liability – the pros and cons
A potential game-changer to the current betting scene, sparked by the widespread debate on restrictions, has been the implementation of a minimum-bet liability, with Coral the first firm to lay any customer to lose a specified amount in their shops.

The firm guarantees to lay any customer to lose at least £5,000 (from 9am) on all races broadcast on ITV Racing; at least £2,000 per customer (from 11am) on all non-televised class 4 and above handicaps, Listed and Group/Graded races in the UK; and at least £500 on any other UK and Irish race from 11am. The offer also applies in Ladbrokes shops, while last month BetVictor – in an online first among major bookmakers – introduced a £500 guarantee on all UK and Irish racing from 11am. Paddy Power, Sky Bet and the Betfair Sportsbook have introduced similar, though less wide-ranging pledges, raising the prospect such guarantees could become standard across the industry.

BetVictor claim online first with new £500 lay-to-lose guarantee

"I think minimum net liability [MBL] will take off," says Channing. "The firms can see the way the wind's blowing – the Gambling Commission have grown a pair of balls. The firms can see a lot of things are going to change and they don't want them to change, so they might as well try to appease."

However, while an industry-wide adoption of MBL would benefit professional gamblers, providing them with the opportunity to get a significant chunk on early, rather than having to wait until moments before the off, Channing fears the inevitable loss of concessions, such as best odds guaranteed, could hit the recreational gambler, the majority of whom – though by no means all – have little difficulty getting their bets on.   

He adds: "On the guarantees I think they are good and bad. If stuff like best odds guaranteed, sign-up bonuses and free bets start to fizzle out of the industry, for most punters that would be a bad thing."

The anonymous punter also sees the potential positives while being aware it might not suit everyone. He says: "I hope MBL takes off. I think it's excellent. Although £500 isn't a huge amount for them to be guaranteeing, it's a start, and if you see a horse whose price is out of line, and two or three of these bookmakers have this pledge, then you might be able to back that horse to win £1,500.

"Whether it's sustainable or not, I don't know, but I think they should be applauded. I have some doubts about whether other firms will introduce it, but they might feel like they need to in order to compete.

"I can see how the recreational punter, who might be doing okay at the moment with the odds in their favour and with best odds guaranteed, might find it harder to break even or make a small profit."

Neil Channing on . . .
Laying off
I almost never lay off because if you do you're generally having one good bet [the initial one] and one bad bet. I didn't just have the good bet so I could trade out and lock in a profit.

Losing runs
The actual losing is only a small part of it. There's more admin involved. It's really demoralising when you've had a bad day and you get five texts [from those putting the bets on] saying can you send me money for tomorrow.

Backing tips
If I know someone is a big winner over a long period and they send me a bet with no reasoning I'll do it without thinking and won't question myself at all.

For the freshest betting advice, based on latest going and market conditions, don't miss the Live Tipster. Just click Raceday Live at racingpost.com or the mobile app



Rather than sit and whinge about not being able to get on it was just better to change how I operate
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Report howard • September 20, 2018 7:10 PM BST
actually...actually..actually.. could it be John from Harrogate
Report McCoy Carp • September 20, 2018 8:40 PM BST
Thanks for that
Report pablo-fanque • September 20, 2018 8:44 PM BST
thanks MrC
Report roadrunner46 • September 20, 2018 9:04 PM BST
thanks for posting , lost interest at the paltry ROI amounts quoted and all the nonsense about too many fixtures, cashless society bit could be a problem longevity wise, still a few years away from that.
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 20, 2018 9:08 PM BST
Can't be rsed to real all the usual shyte in these articles will be interested when they start taking bets on racing again nobody has ever explained with good reasoning why they actively discourage betting on racing.
Meanwhile all the tipsters and media gravy slurpers who receive unjustfied wages filling every racing site with tips for this and that,value winners etc. all for who when nobody is getting bets on right?
Or are these lot still receiving priviliges ordinary non racing folk are not despite winning?
Have they all sold their souls and keep silent to protect their wage? Do the likes of Jim McGrath with his racing history actually think they ARE taking bets whilst receiving his ad money?
Why is nobody asking why doesn't the industry want bets on racing?
Owners and trainers have done plenty moaning about the Levy over the years but never questioned why bookmakers don't accept bets ergo directly affecting prize money - a strange situation unless they aren't restricted to pennies in the way non racing folk are?
Who knows nobody unaffected doesn't give a fcuk anyway.
Report Andrew in Sweden • September 20, 2018 9:21 PM BST
I don't have any online sports betting accounts (except here) so i can't comment on not getting on, or being restricted.

When i'm in UK (and i am often) i use random high street shops without too much hassle (except waiting for trader approval) although bear in mind any decent bet i have is probably going to be at short odds, although not necessarily odd-on. I use cash or debit card, but i don't have any of their mickey mouse connect/customer cards.

If all punters stopped using online and shops completely (and only relied on exchanges) wouldn't the high street industry need to have a re-think ?
Report jimeen • September 20, 2018 9:40 PM BST
You do realise that anyone who is allowed bet on an exchange is in all likelihood losing their bawlixx, much the same as people who aren’t restricted with the bookies.
Report Andrew in Sweden • September 20, 2018 9:43 PM BST
Jimeen,

That wasn't the point of my post, i was merely indicating that if punters stopped using online accounts and shops altogether as a form of protest, the industry would need to have a rethink.
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 20, 2018 9:53 PM BST

Sep 20, 2018 -- 9:43PM, Andrew in Sweden wrote:


Jimeen,That wasn't the point of my post, i was merely indicating that if punters stopped using online accounts and shops altogether as a form of protest, the industry would need to have a rethink.


To be honest Andrew racing is used as a loss leader to bookmakers to ensure no casino licenses or adverting restrictions that'd affect their other 100% profitable services,that has been the whole point of increased evening racing horses and greyhounds keeping the shops open as late as possible.Nobody's in there betting on the races but they are still plugging the machines til all hours.
Same goes with the online casinos/games as there has been no attempt whatsoever to increase turnover on racing it's a case of going through the motions with all the rest of the daily bolox we see on racing sites and the adverts are unchallenged,despite openly containing lies.

Report DenzilPenberthy • September 20, 2018 10:58 PM BST
At the end of the day they'll continue to churn out all these bullshyte articles and betting solutions as long as none of which include bookmakers taking bets on racing that's the truth,until the day it's properly addressed all the shytehawks and gravy slurpers can get fcuked for me.
Report donny osmond • September 21, 2018 12:00 AM BST
i've seen more adverts for purple than for betfair of late.

i thought the pc was to fund advertising to recruit new members ,
replacing those that were natural wastage.

the article above seems a decent article , but why change a winning system?
Report kevo • September 21, 2018 12:04 AM BST
From the mrcombustible post.

One change which has caused the punter to modify his betting is the increase in fixtures, which has made it nigh-on impossible for a form-based punter to adequately keep on top of all forms of racing. In 2019 there will be a record 1,511 meetings, whereas in 1989 there were only 1,037 fixtures.

That's it in a nutshell for me. I used to have a retentive memory of most of the races that I watched on and off course and the ones that I recorded on video. I agree that is now impossible with the current over bloated fixture list to keep up with the volume of racing under both codes.

I no longer watch or get involved in any of the low grade flat and AW racing and also low grade NH racing. That means lots of blank racing days for me.
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 21, 2018 12:32 AM BST
kevo I'm similar to you though trying lately to get more involved to stop boredom and disillusionment feelings which will be common amongst genuine horsey punters who aren't arbers or similar.
FWIW if I could bet with bookmakers I'd never have had a bet on here as an old fashioned punter betting mainly double figures and multis.It's a different game altogether @ bfsp for multis and racetime market lottery for singles anyone who can earn enough on here pre race to pay for their lives deserves some respect.
The people who can still bet with the books and win don't realise that it's probably the only reason that they are winning in the first place,these people do seemingly exist whether they are journos or affiliated tipsters the silence is deafening regarding betting restrictions.
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 21, 2018 12:38 AM BST
Forgot to say used to work 7 days when it was worth it specialising flat all year round far too time consuming to cover it all.Possible to do valuable handicaps all year round but leaves alot of time for boredom in between and if you watch all the races daily plenty will pop up that you will want to be on so had to stop that too.
Report kevo • September 21, 2018 1:04 AM BST
Denzil, the answer is to not get involved in the daily dross of low grade racing. That is what the large increase of the fixture list is about to accommodate the bookmakers, and how ironic now with the problems with the restrictions with trying to get a bet on with most bookmaker firms.
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 21, 2018 1:13 AM BST
Indeed though not all appear to be affected many priviliged within the game as their silence denotes.
Report doantwin2easy • September 21, 2018 1:58 AM BST
There's angles to be had morning, noon and night. Successful punting isn't about the quality of racing. If anything, the increased fixture list equals more choice. Might be less "entertaining", but it's the bottom line that counts.

Bookies rely on the cannon fodder, the churn, the compulsion. More bets coming in the more the odds work in their favour. Just like when you play at the casino, where the only chance you have, is to hit them hard and gtfo.

For punters, the problem isn't more racing, it's the lack of discipline.

Give me more gold leaves at the end of the crystal maze, and I'll get more through the letter box.
Report sparrow • September 21, 2018 6:34 AM BST
jimeen    20 Sep 18 21:40 
You do realise that anyone who is allowed bet on an exchange is in all likelihood losing their bawlixx, much the same as people who aren’t restricted with the bookies.






Being allowed to bet on an exchange? Every one is allowed to bet on an exchange and the assumption that they are all losing is ridiculous.
Report impossible123 • September 21, 2018 10:13 AM BST
"Once exchanges came into the game they totally ruined everything"

The above reported statement from the RP or a pro punter (allegedly) is unfair and disingenuous: the exchanges had not ruined everything however, they had allowed the participant (pro, amateur and/or recreational) the option of laying and not just backing (a runner) to maximise the chance of winning; it had allowed these entities to feed from the one time (exclusive) feeding trough of the bookies and those affiliated to them eg professional tipsters and racing journalists.

I believe the existence of the exchanges must not be blamed for the present un-professionalism of bookies not accepting bets from even the social and recreational punters; the bookies have deviated from their core business strategy, and into a total reliance on fobt for profit.
Report the.mad.dog.man • September 21, 2018 10:36 AM BST
its true exchanges have ruined betting there always was cheating now its out of control since betfair come on the scene  greyhounds horses and football cricket and a lot of other sports i play small now you cant win if someone got a crooked deck of cards
Report foxy • September 21, 2018 11:21 AM BST
excellent post mad dog
Report howard • September 21, 2018 12:58 PM BST
who is the pro in fridays post ? Anything interesting ?
Report DenzilPenberthy • September 21, 2018 1:17 PM BST

Sep 21, 2018 -- 10:13AM, impossible123 wrote:


"Once exchanges came into the game they totally ruined everything"The above reported statement from the RP or a pro punter (allegedly) is unfair and disingenuous: the exchanges had not ruined everything however, they had allowed the participant (pro, amateur and/or recreational) the option of laying and not just backing (a runner) to maximise the chance of winning; it had allowed these entities to feed from the one time (exclusive) feeding trough of the bookies and those affiliated to them eg professional tipsters and racing journalists.I believe the existence of the exchanges must not be blamed for the present un-professionalism of bookies not accepting bets from even the social and recreational punters; the bookies have deviated from their core business strategy, and into a total reliance on fobt for profit.


Correct impossible it's all about about FREE MONEY without any risk whilst racing is a loss leader for FOBTs and online casinos just look at the endless ads and the types they target.
Without exchanges anyone who's an old school racing punter and remotely successful would be forced out of the game and they know this.

Report donny osmond • September 21, 2018 2:06 PM BST
betfairs first adverts highlighted the difference in odds on exchange to books

books have had to give some away to compete

but exchanges are now in hands of the books, and they now know who does what and what they are good at.
Report Deltâ • September 21, 2018 2:17 PM BST
howard

Neil Channing
Report howard • September 21, 2018 2:21 PM BST
Thanks Delta. I would have guessed him from the small photo. They have to interview people they know !
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