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If there was a 3 horse race priced as follows : horse (a) 2.0
horse (b) 3.65
horse (c) 4.4
if horse (A) was withdrawn, what would the price on betfair be of horse (B) and (C) ?
Tks in advance.
horse (b) 3.65
horse (c) 4.4
if horse (A) was withdrawn, what would the price on betfair be of horse (B) and (C) ?
Tks in advance.
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It all depends on the reduction factor.
Each horse has a reduction factor ( in the graph area by horses name). If horse A had a reduction factor of 51.5% then horse B will be 3.65 multiplied by 48.5% making it a 1.77 shot |
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In a NEW Market - OR ... After the Betfair REDUCTION FACTOR? -
Which would probably be 2 different answers. In a NEW Market ... 3.65 would become 8/11 FAV 4.4 would become 11/8 If the REDUCTION FACTOR was a True 50% - then - as it is applied to BOTH potential Winnings AND Stake - would it not make both the 3.65 and 4.4 chances equal to 2.0 shots EACH. Meaning ... ZERO Win OR Lose, whichever won. circa £27 on the 3.65 - to Return circa £100 ... Less 50% = £50 = £50 Return circa £23 on the 4.4 - to Return circa £100 ... Less 50% = £50 = £50 Return Total Stakes = £50 as above ... Return = £50 - whichever wins. Profit/Loss = Zero ... LESS COMMISSION  |
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@onlooker I don't follow your maths.
If the RF for horse A was 50% as expected, then bets on horse B at horse B 3.65 would be RF'd down to 1.825 and bets on horse C at 4.4 would be RF'd down to 2.2 (so more like 6/5 and 5/6 than 11/8 and 8/11, though I avoid fractional odds like the plague) |
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B=1.65 TO BACK
C=2.04 TO BACK |
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I was wondering what would the prices be if a new market was established? tks.
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1.82 ans 2.2 is the answer assuming you take the 50% prob removed and spread in in proportion between the other 2.
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apologies i could have just said "longbridge has the correct answer"
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COULD SOMEONE POST THE MAN WITH HIS HEAD IN HIS HANDS ,i am amazed how some guys end up on a gambling site
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@brassneck.
I know what you mean. How did you arrive at the prices you quoted? They imply a 110% book when the market pre-the NR was a 100% one - doesn't feel likely to me. |
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Can someone answer this question please.....Have a free 2500£ bet. Any sport
But has to be rolled 8 times before withdrawal......best way t o play it? Thanks |
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longbridge 18 Sep 18 12:29
@onlooker I don't follow your maths. ------------------ Well - At least I explained my figures - unlike the vast majority, on nearly all, threads on here. Hard to see what wants outlining further than I posted - However I will break it down even more ... As you have just posted to brassneck - 'the market pre-the NR was a 100% one' Assuming that the Backer backs ALL 3 horses to RETURN £100 - whichever horse won - then his Stakes outlay will ALSO TOTAL £100. In this instance £50 an A @ 2.0 = Return £100 circa £27 on B the 3.65 chance = Return circa £100 circa £23 on C the 4.4 chance = Return circa £100 circa rounded-up/down figures for convenience of example. Therefore = ZERO Profit or Loss - whichever horse wins in this 100% book (as per a Betfair Pre-Race Market) Horse A - the 2.0 chance - becomes a NON-Runner ... meaning £50 Stake Returned to Backer Backer's TOTAL Stake outlay NOW = £50 Backer's RETURNS now subject to 50% REDUCTION FACTOR - Winnings AND STAKE. Thus ... circa £27 on B the 3.65 chance = ORIGINAL Return circa £100 .. [b[now becomes[/b] ... circa £27 on the 3.65 - to Return circa £100 ... Less 50% = £50 - NOW = £50 Return circa £23 on C the 4.4 chance = ORIGINAL Return circa £100 ... now becomes ... circa £23 on the 4.4 - to Return circa £100 ... Less 50% = £50 - NOW = £50 Return Total Stakes [b]now becomes £50 ... (The £50 on the NON-Runner, horse A, having been RETURNED to the Backer) Total Stakes = £50 as above ... Return = £50 - whichever wins. Profit/Loss = Zero ... LESS COMMISSION * as I posted at 12:11 ... Hard to envisage how it can be put any clearer - in fact, it cannot. |
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@onlooker
£27 on NB to return £50 is odds of 1.85. Yet you say it would become the 8/11 Fav. 8/11 is 1.72 So the bet I'm not clear on is how you get from "a £27 bet to return £50" to "8/11". |
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£27 on Horse B*
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sorry for the misconception/confusion - longbridge.
My detailed breakdown of the REDUCTION FACTOR application to the Market, is SEPARATE from my guesstimation of what the Prices would be if it were an entirely DIFFERENT/SEPARATE Market - NOT a Reduction Factor applied Market - priced up between just the other 2 horses. I marginally misinterpreted the OP opening post as if he meant just a straight 2-horse race - Horse A NEVER having been part of that equation... and NOT 8/11 representing the Reduction Factor applied price - that never being my intention. |
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Thanks onlooker, all makes sense now.
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