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17 Sep 18
19:07
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Date Joined:
08 Aug 02
just seems impossible. tried every angle. only chance is with inside knowledge.
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yep, it's no way to make a living, thats for sure
3 threads next to each other here
(1) This one claiming everythings been tried, but he cant make it backing horses
(2) 5 favs stop at a winner - f@cked after 2 days
(3) andrews laying thread. in profit
you do the math
(1) This one claiming everythings been tried, but he cant make it backing horses
(2) 5 favs stop at a winner - f@cked after 2 days
(3) andrews laying thread. in profit
you do the math
Lewisham, Over the years I have had numerous Trainers and Jockeys as friends, let me them you it makes no difference..Its a game of chance make no mistake...Inside information works now and again, its not the Holy Grail.
There was a trainer years ago based near the curragh iirc who packed in training to just betting on horses it did not end well.
It can be done but it is not easy.
It can be done but it is not easy.
I have seen many pro gamblers go to the poor house , the hardest game in the World to make a living at.Though I have lasted ...
yes laying might be the way forward although the psychological affect of laying a winner isn't easy to overcome.
there is one of the best laying threads on here, why dont you learn from someone who has an extremely effective mode of operating.
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
lewisham ranger • September 18, 2018 12:11 PM BST
yes laying might be the way forward although the psychological affect of laying a winner isn't easy to overcome.
This is an interesting thread -
in the city - shorting shares , backing them to implode & lose value is very much the norm
yes laying might be the way forward although the psychological affect of laying a winner isn't easy to overcome.
This is an interesting thread -
in the city - shorting shares , backing them to implode & lose value is very much the norm
Possible reasons eg:-
1) horse racing a sport of opinions
2) prices of fancied runners
3) number (variable) of runners - the more, the likelihood of discrepancy
4) in-running (position) of (fancied) runners and/or their perceived chances
5) psychology to induce betting eg a front runner and/or no-hoper leading the pack at the early part of any race is usually shortened
up significantly
6) wannabe/amateur bookies (here) displaying/reflecting their naivety and/or lack of sport knowledge
The City: if shorting stocks, one could be taken to the cleaner by the collusion between one's stockbroker (supplying info of one's stock and financial position) and the market maker (jobber) thro' a deliberate engineering of a sudden (negative) scenario to the one taken by oneself especially in illiquid and/or non-ftse 100-350 stocks ie stocks that could be easily (and frequently) manipulated.
1) horse racing a sport of opinions
2) prices of fancied runners
3) number (variable) of runners - the more, the likelihood of discrepancy
4) in-running (position) of (fancied) runners and/or their perceived chances
5) psychology to induce betting eg a front runner and/or no-hoper leading the pack at the early part of any race is usually shortened
up significantly
6) wannabe/amateur bookies (here) displaying/reflecting their naivety and/or lack of sport knowledge
The City: if shorting stocks, one could be taken to the cleaner by the collusion between one's stockbroker (supplying info of one's stock and financial position) and the market maker (jobber) thro' a deliberate engineering of a sudden (negative) scenario to the one taken by oneself especially in illiquid and/or non-ftse 100-350 stocks ie stocks that could be easily (and frequently) manipulated.
Try laying the second favourite in races for youngsters and hope the Gods are with you.
You can see the logic, you've got the favourite on your side and a load of unexposed horses as well.
Forget the form, there are too many close calls for that to have any significance.
Seems to work for AIS so far.
You can see the logic, you've got the favourite on your side and a load of unexposed horses as well.
Forget the form, there are too many close calls for that to have any significance.
Seems to work for AIS so far.
Lay short price and badly drawn fav in sprints on a round course on the All-Weather esp in handicap and/or apprentice races.
fredlyn 18 Sep 18 16:33 Joined: 25 Jul 16 | Topic/replies: 681 | Blogger: fredlyn's blog
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
surely if the odds are way out from the final result then it makes it much easier for punters, the more accurate layers/bookmakers are then surely it's tougher for the bettors, unless I'm missing something?
tried every angle
Are you sure about that?
How can you try something that you're not aware of, because how many of us know the lot?
Most punters haven't a clue what's going on and depend entirely on the betting to guide them.
Are you sure about that?
How can you try something that you're not aware of, because how many of us know the lot?
Most punters haven't a clue what's going on and depend entirely on the betting to guide them.
fredlyn 18 Sep 18 16:33 Joined: 25 Jul 16 | Topic/replies: 681 | Blogger: fredlyn's blog
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
you're right, you are no statistician. the market and reality are virtual mirror images of each other
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
you're right, you are no statistician. the market and reality are virtual mirror images of each other
lewisham ranger 18 Sep 18 23:34 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 3,811 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
fredlyn 18 Sep 18 16:33 Joined: 25 Jul 16 | Topic/replies: 681 | Blogger: fredlyn's blog
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
surely if the odds are way out from the final result then it makes it much easier for punters, the more accurate layers/bookmakers are then surely it's tougher for the bettors, unless I'm missing something? Confused
100% correct Lewisham. Not sure where fred gets his data from but he is plain wrong.
fredlyn 18 Sep 18 16:33 Joined: 25 Jul 16 | Topic/replies: 681 | Blogger: fredlyn's blog
What I don't get - and i'm not an analyst nor a statistician - is why the horse racing market is priced mathematically so
inaccurately - why does the market before the off - bear no correlation to results, 95% of the time - why is it so adrift
you would have thought it would have more credability - it hasn't , as the total placing results of all runners don't even reflect closely starting prices.
This is not the same in any other sport - they wonder why liquidity is vanishing
the answer instead , every betting platform has to invent a fruit machine style gambling / casino alternative - how did it degenerate to this
hopeless , hapless , whitless state - so now horse racing is no longer a betting experience - no longer a sporting experience
or trusted even - did they never see the slide happening or what.
surely if the odds are way out from the final result then it makes it much easier for punters, the more accurate layers/bookmakers are then surely it's tougher for the bettors, unless I'm missing something? Confused
100% correct Lewisham. Not sure where fred gets his data from but he is plain wrong.
did you find any of the advice on the thread useful
Backed the first 13 Bee Gees singles to be a hit...lost every time. So like them don't give up if you think you are talented...if not give up.
I suppose to some people they will always be Le Tosseurs....
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