Best value odds on shot today?

** When I said, 'as I type', one minute later it's a 4/5 chance on here now...

Had a look at this and I think the Racing Post have summed it up well. Should win but the ground is a nagging concern. Mullins himself said that prefers better ground. Only times it's ran on this type of ground he flopped.

The odds on one today that I like is Baldings at Chester (2.00). Solid form and improved from 1st to 2nd run which was decent. Likely ran to high 80's at York. Extra 1/2 furlong should be fine and her dam handled soft/heavy so ground should be fine. Godolphin newcomer could be anything and is well bred but has no fancy entries. Would likely need to run to at least 88 to win this on debut which would mean it'd need to be decent. As it is it's making the price for Indomitable. Hardly a bold selection but as far as 8/13 / 4/6 shots go I like it.

Thanks for your input Joe.I take your point about the ground but it has won on yielding at 3 miles albeit in a PTP. From where I look at it it has superior form to the 'danger' whom in eighteen attempts has never got it's head in front and also has had too many breaks for my liking.

Anyways, GL in the 2.00.

** I forgot to add that the danger has never went this trip before albeit not a two horse race.

Have to admit that you're 100% correct about the 2nd fav. Hardly a world beater and if the fav can't beat him it's disappointing in what looks a poor race. Like I say my concern is the ground otherwise I'd be in.

GL

I've gone for 2.00 indomitable -Chester got a good draw which is crucial at Chester  4.05 sangaruis -Doncaster should go on to much better things done them both in a double good luck with yer bets today

With all due respect kev, I doubt if the draw will play a major factor in the 2.00 given there are two 'no hopers' and only 6 runners but I will cheer it on for both of you regardless.

I wouldn't back anything at Listowel today, the course doesn't drain well and heavy means heavy there. The NH course is slghtly better but i couldn't back Dorrells Pierji anyway even though it may win.

As for Indomitable, he has an odds-on chance, but not one for me. Only raced on good/firm.

The best buying money bet is at Salisbury and must be close to a good thing, but his restricted odds reflect this. Won easily on debut (I highlighted him on my lay thread afterwards). Time and sectionals were good.

Good luck whatever you play.

Close.

WD Joe and kev. Hope your next one hoses up kev.

Cheers stewart was close but showed a willing attuide to hold on Andrew balding is having a fine season two winners today already

Good luck with your selection Stewart later in the day hope it can go in for you very rarely I venture into Irish racing

Wouldn't say I enjoyed watching that but got 4/5 when it drifted out a bit. The second could be anything although it did help to make the book.

Andrew - Have to admit that I'll likely play with Jash but leave it late. Thing with these odds on chances is that you can get on but as with anything the key is the price you take. Saying that If I don't like it I'd still leave it. Could go 1/3 on course although I wouldn't lay it.

Kev - Don't like the Stoute horse at Doncaster fwiw. Did pick up nicely last time but second has flopped since and there's a few others with good pieces of from that could also improve. Like Meehans but struggle to get on decent amounts on the outsiders.

well done joe and kev, second went 1.03 in the run. 

WD winners (2.00) i didn't see the race (no bet) but did it cause a missed heartbeat ?

I only say that due to the distance, but it was enough and that's what counts in the end.

Joe,

I agree and often do the same. If it went too short, i would also leave it, but i was impressed with his run LTO. A pity about the earlier NR.

To be honest I'm due that as I've had a bad couple of days at Listowel. Was on the Charles Byrnes one in the Bumper that was brought down when cantering and the day before the Mullins one that was clear when blundering the last. They both went very heavy odds on in running. Just have to keep telling yourself that it levels out over time and to keep doing what's served you well enough over the years.

Thanks kev. I'm not super confident but I give it a score of 7.5 out of 10 due to the ground. If it was good ground it would be 8.5. That said, Townend has a 40% strike rate in the last 14 days albeit Mullins less and the combined strike rate of the 2nd Fav's trainer and pilot is decent.

Andrew,

Was on Jash at 1/2 on the morning of the abandoned meeting. Took cash bets in a couple of shops which is rare enough. Sure you can imagine how I felt when it was called off.

Think I read on your thread that you like(d) Zarkava. FWIW I was there when it won the ARC in the rain and had backed it ante post. I only mention it because Indomitables dam was beaten only 3l by her in a Group 3 in heavy at Longchamp over 1m. Gave me the added push to go in today.

Joe, I hope you don't mind me asking but I notice only 200 posts in the last 13 years? Perhaps I know the reason for that but hopefully you will continue to post as it's punters like yourself that we need on here that talk common sense as in AIS.

i saw that zarkova form as well joe although i am not sure what i am looking at half the time, !!

    do you put more importance on the dam or sires form when looking at potential to handle certain ground conditions ?

* zarkava.

Joe,

I was also there for Zarkava, my favourite filly. It was actually the year before i first noticed her in the Boussac (didn't back her then) she had all sorts of trouble yet still won easily. Different class.

I'm actually in Hounslow at the moment, but went into several of the bookies to see what price Jash was ...... best was 2/11 PP, but i left it. At that price i can wait until nearer race time. There was a similar good thing yesterday, Exchange Rate, 1/8 at lunchtime yet SP was 1/6 and she touched 2/11.

... i was also on jash the other day . !!

I want Jash to win today, but not next time out

stewart...I echo what you say about Andrews posts. I'm not one to dole out praise but he's been a dose of common sense. Helps that he often sees things my way. Maybe I'll start posting more. No reason I shouldn't and I haven't been away anywhere. Was interested in your selection at Listowel as despite being in England I do follow Irish racing a lot and would say 60% of my bets are there.

Glasgow - My own view is that I'm always sceptical of paddock and/or breeding experts. As far as breeding is concerned it's a factor that I consider amongst others as it'd be stupid not to. I'm far from an expert in this area but I know breeders who are some of the most clueless mugs on from you'll ever meet. As far as Baldings goes it's dam was decent and it's sire as we all know was a 6f horse who liked top of the ground. To answer your question directly I do like to see that the dam likes the conditions/trip but this isn't set in stone.

I can tell you a better tale about being on a horse at decent odds where the meeting was abandoned than Jash. I had £750 e/w on New Approach ante post at 6/1 to win The Juddmonte at York in 2008. You'll remember the meeting was abandoned due to drainage issues and the race was ran at Newmarket. It won but all ante post bets were voided when the race was switched to another track. From that day onwards I've always had a gripe about the track there and the management of it. We all remember the pigs ear they made of the Royal meeting I'm sure.

.. much as i thought joe, i always look at breeding when it comes to horses racing on untested ground conditions.

  thanks for your reply.

I thought Duke of Marmalade won the Juddmonte. Or do you mean the champion stakes when he hacked up?

You're right Gibraltar. It's the mental image of him winning the Champion Stakes over the same course. Maybe my memory made me think it was a better bet than it was.

Nearly showtime with Sangarius for the double kev. I have no interest in the race but will cheer it on for you. GL.

Very well done kev. A nice double and quite impressive imo given it was only it's second run.

Thanks Stewarty sangaruis as I thought looks a real nice prospect and won very well in the end  sad to see the injury at the start for commanding officer

Nice to see some winners on the thread....apart from me....so far. Have been drip feeding and got some 1.81 and lower but only for small. 4/6 now as I type and in two minds whether to up the stakes..

Yes kev, never pleasant to see.

wd stewart and kev

Thanks Joe. I thought the 2nd Fav was going a bit to well for my liking for a while but soon faded. A pleasing day all round for all who participated in the thread albeit we all know backing odds on is a sure way to the poor house.....unless one thinks they are value.


As for the thread title, Sangarius was fairly impressive but we don't really know what it beat in which case I will steal the bragging rights!

Keep posting Joe and kev. Good to see a clean thread.

WD on the winners guys, there were a few mentioned, hope you made plenty.

Sangrious looked good as did Jash.

I don't have problems backing odds-on as long as the price is warranted, some are actually value. A few more running tomorrow.

Joe and stewart, thanks for the kind comments.

1.40 chelm

1.79 taken

Hi all not a great days racing and I don't usually bet in Ireland but this horse has tempted me to have a go 2.35 eziyra curragh beaten last time at York  by the top class sea of class last time run here won well and a drop in class should do the business today and the price shows that good luck with yer bets today

I fancy one later kev but your post made me have a look. Looks like the form beast to me and as it's (as I type) 4/5 with most books and 6/5 on here. I am following you in. G/l to us both!

Just backed it (6/4).

WD The Three Musketeers!

Nice result. Wasn't going to bother when I went through the race this morning. Liked it but thought it was too short. Had to back it at 6/4. Remember it's debut a couple of years back behind a good one of John Ox's (moved to Haggas) and then when it won well at Galway. First run of season was nice enough and last run suggests she's still improving. Jockey not messing about today which was good.

Hi Stewarty and joe hope you both won loads   I had a fair bet on her just held on and I was nervous at the finish but she just had enough at the end that shows how good sea of class is  as I say very rarely venture into Irish racing unless it's group - listed races wd on the 6/4 joe nice drift

Good show kev. I am now in a position where I cannot lose today with only one to back. Lucky I saw the thread had been bumped!

Kev, I'd say 60-70% on my bets are in Ireland which I suppose is slightly unusual for someone in Yorkshire. Don't like anything else today except for Quorto but I'll leave it late before deciding to have a bet. It's a poor renewal in my eyes and although AOB's were under a cloud at the time the proximity of Christmas (the horse) to AVD lto doesn't inspire confidence in him. Land Force looks an unlikely stayer and none of the others should count.

FWIW my only other bet today is Latrobe in the Irish Leger. Disappointing last time out after a break but some of it's Derby form is stacking up.

Rostropovich for one has came out since and boosted the form last time out plus I thing the extra distance will suit well.

Gl/all.

Joe I will watch the quarto race with interest the trainer c.appleby is pretty shrewd 4/5 favs have won this race  good luck if you decide to have a go that's me done for the day now off to the garden with a cold can

WD Joe. Amazingly, every horse mentioned on this thread has won! Mind you, I could easily change that in the next..

WD joe another nice winner for the thread ! Good luck stewarty hopefully a full house today

Got 6/4 again when it drifted a bit. That's me done for the day.

Unlucky Stewarty flag of hounour got first run on him could not reel him In

Pity nobody mentioned it was Andrew's lay as I only look in from time to time. It would have made no difference re: me backing it but I may have reduced my stake considering Andrew is doing a Shergar at present.....without looking round for dangers!

a Shergar? You mean he's been kidnapped by grimmy?