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31 Aug 18
19:48
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Date Joined:
07 Sep 15
Too Darn Hot is a shade odds-on. He's up in class and runs against Listed race winners, and placed horses in Group 2/3 races for the very 1st time. Is his short price justified?
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Nope !!
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I posted on the ante/post Solario thread yesterday
Andrew in Sweden 30 Aug 18 21:12 Too Darn Hot could win on the bridle, but i wouldn't be backing it significantly at 5/4. Impressive LTO winning by 7L and could be anything, but the form is worthless in the context of a Group 3. It won a class 5 maiden stakes with only 5 runners, 3 of whom were unraced. One had been unplaced (5th of 6) and the other Fraser Island runner-up to Beat Boxer, stablemate of TDH. The time was ordinary, specially compared to the other 8f race on the card. May have to run to a mark of 110+ to win. |
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it's getting backed, now odds-on, they must think this is a real superstar
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Gosden had an odds-on two year old over course and distance today - came 5th. Just sayin.
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domino reckons it's one of the top 2yo colts seen out this season, with his faultless record, who needs anymore evidence...?
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Might as well start schooling it over hurdles now in that case.
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There are better odds-on shots around to bet on. Too Darn Hot (TDH) is the lowest rated horse in the race, and 1st time against a much higher calibre opposition; his winning time was only respectable. As such his short price is not warranted, I believe, and mainly connections induced.
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Come in for a lot of support which translates to Rabs got his Punters On......That's good enough for me.
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it's that price because of its breeding
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not to me, i have layed him
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I could not have been more wrong with Too Darn Hot (TDH) however, is he truly a deserved fav for The Derby and 2000G?; 6/1 is barmy to me. He also ran a bit too keen in the early stages of the race, I think. The value for both races is long gone thus prudent to wait till his next step-up in grade eg Racing Post, etc.
Over the water Ten Sovereigns secured another impressive victory in The Tower. He is 2nd fav for the 2000G after Too Darn Hot (TDH); next nominated race is the Middle Park at Newmarket over 7f. |
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I too got it completely wrong.
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@Impossible123
The Middle Park is over 6f. |
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Dom is King
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In my opinion Ten Sovereigns is already a good thing for the Middle Park.
I haven't seen all the entries yet, but without Calyx, Advertise he's going to be well fancied. Charlie Applebys Quorto isn't entered, same with Hannons Boitron and Johnsons Dark Vision, although i wouldn't be concerned about the latter. There's the other AOB runners but i can't see them getting anywhere near TS. Readers of my lay thread will know just how much i rate the colt, ref my post yesterday morning. |
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Mind you i wouldn't be backing him for the 2000 guineas at 8/1 or even 18/1.
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@Andrew
I firmly suspect Advertise's connections will have a change of heart. The Middle Park could end up a small field with TS in it, and suspect they wouldn't be too keen to take on Too Darn Hot and Anthony Van Dyck in the Dewhurst and may feel the MP is a softer option. |
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Domino,
You could be correct, but he's also entered in the 7f National Stakes at The Curragh where he may not meet any of the Dewhursts class. I would be more than happy for him to go for the Middle Park. |
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'domino', indeed re: Middle Park, I hit the wrong key.
I think Ten Sovereigns showed too much early pace, and despite running all the way to the line he'd well be another Gustav Klimt and not stay a proper Gp 1 8f race like the 2000G. I got 25/1 with 'billies' prior but I'd still side with Calyx (8/1) given form (Advertise), and Kingman as sire; Too Darn Hot is not for me at 6/1 as connections very rarely win for me. Anthony Van Dyck is decent, but will probably be best further than 8f. |
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impossible123
Date Joined: 07 Sep 15 Add contact | Send message 02 Sep 18 16:30 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 7,535 | Blogger: impossible123's blog 'domino', indeed re: Middle Park, I hit the wrong key. |