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23 Aug 18
11:18
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Date Joined:
22 Apr 04
Close with my pick yesterday in the opening sprint with Final Venture btn into 2nd by El Astronaute, have picked one for todays hardest h'cap.
Firmament is the fav at the moment trained by O'Meara who runs along with Mythical Madness and Bravery.
I think Firmament is rather short in a race like this and i notice that 4 of the 1st 5 in the market are drawn low along with Afaak drawn in 11.
A low draw is probably preferable but not conclusively so and i think the market may be tilted too much in favour of the lower drawn horses.
My selection is stablemate Bravery who should be a fresh horse in comparison to most of the field with just 2 runs, both in the last month for this season.
Lincoln winner in 17 on stable debut, in that race rated 100 and drawn 20 at Doncaster was quickly switched across the back of the field before coming through to beat "oh this is us". That horse still rated 108.
Hasn't won since but put in an excellent run over todays C/D when 2nd to Zabeel Star receiving just 1lb, that horse is now rated 109.
Lto carrying a massive 10-2 ran a fine 2nd at Ripon on G/F btn just 3/4lgth by Masham Star giving that horse 7lbs, Shane Gray has ridden him both times this year and carrying just 8-12 today i think he has a very good EW chance.
Firmament is the fav at the moment trained by O'Meara who runs along with Mythical Madness and Bravery.
I think Firmament is rather short in a race like this and i notice that 4 of the 1st 5 in the market are drawn low along with Afaak drawn in 11.
A low draw is probably preferable but not conclusively so and i think the market may be tilted too much in favour of the lower drawn horses.
My selection is stablemate Bravery who should be a fresh horse in comparison to most of the field with just 2 runs, both in the last month for this season.
Lincoln winner in 17 on stable debut, in that race rated 100 and drawn 20 at Doncaster was quickly switched across the back of the field before coming through to beat "oh this is us". That horse still rated 108.
Hasn't won since but put in an excellent run over todays C/D when 2nd to Zabeel Star receiving just 1lb, that horse is now rated 109.
Lto carrying a massive 10-2 ran a fine 2nd at Ripon on G/F btn just 3/4lgth by Masham Star giving that horse 7lbs, Shane Gray has ridden him both times this year and carrying just 8-12 today i think he has a very good EW chance.
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I like Afaak in this but as always I have to back Hors De Combat who has been my cliff horse for 3 years.
 He runs in all the big mile handicaps but always gets going too lat and/or meets trouble in running, but should have gone very close in the Hunt Cup and Golden Mile this season. His only recent wins have been at Meydan which is a flat left handed track so hopefully York shoukd suit. |
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I have also done Bravery, along with Get Knotted and Reach High
looks like Bravery is coming back to form and would win fairly easy at his best |
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it must afaak for me
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Tough race and one I struggle to be over confident about so looking at the higher end of the market MUBATISM strikes ma as one that has some form to recapture and could go well would be my ew shout
And maybe a big run from HORD DE COMBAT might see it trouble the judge good luck with your bets and good to see u Stewart Cheers |
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Hors De Combat Win 25/1
Mythical Madness 66/1 e/w saver gl |
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Sea fox for me.
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