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Works with the Irish Oaks filly at home, and was before it's debut when yard fancied it and no one could believe price it was. Will win but definitely not a working mans price.
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hello paul
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The early 1/7 was very fair ....2 sheep and an unraced horse which will need to be a pattern type horse first time up against it....
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Desperate if you are relying on 1/7 shots.
Surprising the horse didn't go straight to listed at least after the debut. It didn't look like it was crying out for the experience. Perhaps it is not quite as good as the style of that debut win suggested? Looks an easily swervable card. Wissahickon was garbage last time after a previously impressive win. Which one turns up at a short price today? Cowboy Soldier for disappointed at Goodwood and he is another at a short price today. A couple of these are ridden by Moore who is notorious for having great books of rides on paper and then coming away with a couple of winners. |
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@Differentdrum
The problem is, if you win on debut, and then go into listed class you are inexperienced against decent opposition, could run very green and come 4th running respectably and he given a mark of say 100+ which makes it more difficult to place. Whilst you can win your second novice race and be judged on two races. She ran 89 on debut, and it's hard to see her needing to run anywhere near that to win today. Haggas does like to progress him fillies steadily rather than go straight in the deep end and after a win today, she may get a mark in the high 80s or low 90s, meaning William can look for a conditions race or a nice handicap whilst the horse gains experience before stepping her up into pattern company. If he went straight into listed or group company and she ran well but wasn't quite up to the task, she could be a twice raced filly without black type, rated around 100 and too high to make an impact off that mark in a handicap, and spend her season having to run in races too strong for her. The approach Haggas, Gosden and Varian take with these horses should be commended, even if it does make it tougher for the smaller yard to win a novice race. |
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absolute cert should just pay out now.
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no one said anything about relying on 1/7 shots....only said price was very fair given its debut and opposition....if it loses I will still be here playing away just as I have since day 1..
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maybe prudent to go for the 2tbp market as insurance
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Haggas odds on not for me, should win easy but i'm just going to watch.
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The 1/7 is a great price. Varian's has to run 95+ on debut to win, if that was expected it would have been backed. Not many people would bet at those prices, but there are few easier ways to make 14% on your money in my book and unless she breaks down, you would expect her to win easy.
I though the 8/11 double about her and Alexanderthegreat was actually seriously good value. |
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Not even Haggas can get this shortie beat .....
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The second favourite is a well bred newcomer, arguably better bred than the favourite. I think the unknown factor stops that 1/7 being good value for very short price backers. If she is good then the 1/7 could be terrible value.
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valid point drum'....fwiw The Varian horse did look green prior to be pulled from its debut run...and presuming the Haggas horse has any aspirations to its group entries then the Varian horse will have to run some number on debut...
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@Differntdrum
It may well be well bred, but it's a 3yo who hasn't seen the track until August of it's 3yo career, so it's either been very weak, or had problems. It would need to run to 95 on debut to win, which would be some achievement. If it had been showing anything at home which would suggests she could run to that level, she would not be 11.0 to back on here. |
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Where they hidden 3 TBP anyone?
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domino, the horse whisperers down at the start, do they only get paid if the horse goes in?
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well done chav, you da man!
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George B. Hell no and they charge a fortune.
We once had a horse from Stoutes go to Gary Witherford, it was about £500 for the 6 days he had it, then he charged £350 to attend a stalls test and another £350 to attend the day it ran next. So all in all to have his services cost £1200 ! We didn't even get Gary on the track, we got his son Craig. Owners wanted Gary and his Boy rather than Steve (Yarmi) who the yard normally used. |
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where was this 1/7 please?
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Was very early 1.2 on here Willie....plenty of the books when I looked had 1/7 at least this morning......
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Do they even make any difference down at the start? They don't appear to be doing much the stalls handlers couldn't do themselves!
Perhaps the one exception I remember seeing was the Jim Goldie mare who really had been a problem at the stalls on a number of occasions, and I don't know who the guy is (possibly Jim's son?), but he was amazing, he'd stand there with her for about 3 minutes and then she'd just walk in! |
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Was definitely 1/7 with some firms this morning and 1.16 on the exchanges for quite a while. Whether it was when this post was written though I don't know.
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was little done till 1.1 ish.
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@George B
Every horse is different, but they work on the horse at their base near Lambourn before they go to stalls tests and the track and that, so they will know what the horse needs, so they may not need to do much on raceday with some horses, but they will know what to do if the horse does play up so to speak. |
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and with respect..until there is money for the varian horse you had no idea if it was really value.
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very valid Willie...on the prices if I recall 1.2 a few hundred done....a few thousands done until 1.16 when the real lumps come in....my bet was modest by your standards but I played at 1.15 when it was easy to get a fair bet away..
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2nd would have to have been useful to win or fav under perform..but anything is possible.
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But all in all, much less of a risk to lump on the winner before you knew anything about the 2nd fav, than lay the outsiders at massive prices.
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i'd rather take 1.1 when the 2nd fav has drifted.
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a nice winner lads,have to see if i can identify another likely one tomorrow.
stay vigilant  |
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Can you find us one that earns a quid for our fiver?
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