How does MIDGELY suddenly SWITCH that horse ON?

I've never ever backed Tylery Wonder when it's won so don't take this post as me being a clever so and so it's just a potential reason for an improvement,I backed him when I thought he's get an easyish time on the front and was gutted that day he came out on elastic at York when unbacked by myself.
The 2 quotes below are from former trainer Bill Mcreery in 2015

Tylery Wonder is very hard to work out. If I could get inside his head it would be great. He's a good horse and has plenty of ability. He carried plenty of weight there and was going away at the line. I think he sulks when he has horses around him so Billy [Lee] kept him away from everything. He knows him well - Willie McCreery, trainer.

Tylery Wonder is a funny horse. He got a break after the last day and the lads that own him (Tylery Road Syndicate) took him home to Laois and threw him out in a field with cattle for a week! That draw suits him as he likes to race on his own. He doesn't even work with other horses at home - Willie McCreery, winning trainer.

Plus they switched to blinkers today.

Yes that put me off today.

Admittedly, it is a horse that anybody would find it difficult to 'get your head around'

When it won as FAV at the Curragh, back in 2014, I remember thinking 'why FAV?'  - as it had 'weakened' on it's last 3 outings, including twice over the minimum trip.

When it switched to MIDGLEY, 2 years later, you expected a Renaissance - But it took a year to come, and was not well-backed (went off 14/1) when it won.

More recently, it has had those 13 beaten runs - which can only make you wonder why the stables ONLY entry today - and sent from Yorkshire to Windsor, too.

We know now, as it won - But why the SOLE ENTRY  and the apparent CONFIDENCE in the betting? ... on this horse that can be renowned for 'downing tools' once joined in a race.

seems to be money coming for giant spark 4.15 ayr 33s into 14s ,noteworthy given a string of duckeggs next to his name and a lowly mark

Onlooker, a question here without meaning to sound rude.

Do you look at form and figures at all ?

The horse ran well at York over 5f twice this season, first of all when 2nd off 72 and then again 2 runs ago when 2nd off 75 to a progressive type. The horse has consistently shown that it is best suited by 5f on a galloping track and is effective off marks in the low 70s. It could be forgiven it's poor run last time out again off 75 running over 6f which stretches his stamina, but the handicapper dropped it 2lb to 73, so it was back in the winning marks bracket for it and was back over 5f on a galloping track. The horse started the season too high in the weights off 83 having had a fruitful year last season and found 80 to be about it's ceiling mark. I would imagine the run in March and April were nothing more than not off runs when the horse was unfit. Possibly trained on the walker it had two runs close together in May and I would hazard to guess it was only in May that they started training this horse to get it fit again. Dropped to 74 (a mark in the danger zone) the horse ran very well over a galloping 5f at Newcastle, probably benefiting from being fit and dropped in the weights but there was no money for him. He was then backed next time but I doubt by connections. Nottingham is a tricky track and doesn't suit horses who like to go forward and he has run a few stinkers at Nottingham in the past, he did again here but I personally feel the money was not connections. They also removed headgear which was a tell tell sign to me, he wasn't off. Since that run he had been largely consistent in the right races on tracks that suit him over a trip he likes, in headgear and off and around his dangerous marks. One could argue he should't have been dropped lb for not staying a trip the handicapper knows he doesn't stay, but it opened the door for him on Sunday to win. It should also be noted that he ran in a 0-80, 0-95 and 0-90 in 3 of his four previous starts and dropped into 0-75 on Sunday. He ran in a 0-70 at Carlisle too but he had to run off 75 (as it was a Saturday, and whilst entries were done on the Monday, they are only confirmed on the Tuesday which was when the handicapper put him back to 75) and he isn't suited by a really stiff track like Carlisle, I personally think Midge was just looking to try and take advantage of the drop to 72 and turning him out quickly before he went back up 3lb to 75.

There had been enough in his profile to say enough boxes were ticked on Sunday and that he was back on the right sort of track, over the right trip and back into the winning marks bracket.

These older horses are all very similar especially up to a mile. They got to a point they can't win. They may be a solid 80 horse but they need to be 8-10lb well treated to be well enough handicapped to beat improvers and win. So the handicapper knows, this horse is well in, in the low 70s, capable of running well in the mid 70s but too high when he gets to around 80. Horses like this aren't hard to find as bets, but they are fairly obvious to most form students and as with the case of this horse, he's had a couple of runs already off the correct dangerous marks bracket where he has run well, when he would have been a bet to form students. They don't win all the time, as this horse has shown, but in the right grade, over the right trip and in the area of mark they are well in and above the grade, they will normally run their race.

This horse was no different and certainly isn't a case of switching him on or off. The signs were there, if you put in the time to study horse and race profiles.

Domino - as the owner of TW I would just say there is more chance of me being a drug dealer than a football agent. I am neither.

PBT

Sorry about that, I had always been told off someone that Andrew Taylor was a football agent. My apologies. They were a mutual friend through Ned Curtis who rode a few for you a few years ago.

Love to start the day with a good larf, thanks Dom.

99% of punters should stick to roulette. FACT!

@1stimeposter

Every horse is different, but this horse won't win above 80 anymore, he's not that standard of horse anymore, but there was enough in his recent runs and profile to show the horse was off a mark he can be competitive off. Once the handicapper has a horse it wont win until it's back down to the marks it can be. A horse called Juneau is a classic example of such horse that is running today. Very few yards if any would have 40 winners in a month, having had none the month before or after, I know you're randomly speaking, but Paul Midgley is a good trainer who has a number of horses who currently are around their winning marks, so makes sense they are running well, the same that once they are too high in the weights they will struggle. You will see in small to medium yards they will have one blinding season with horses when well treated but the following year they struggle because the horses are badly handicapped and need to come down in the weights. The difference between these yards and bigger yards, is the bigger yards often have fresh new stock, and move on badly handicapped horses, but smaller yards are unable to do so, so after a period of success will come a run of results where it looks like the horses are no good, but they are just badly treated in the weights.
That is basic training of horses.

winners for mjk for instance have nothing to do with handicap marks, they can be last one race when fav ,well fancied and sluice in of the same mark sometimes in the same week,as for giant spark I doubt those pay training fees for over a year before winning an egg and spoon race will consider the horse been very shrewdly trained

so if mjk and a dozen other trainers with 200 plus owners have a dartboard attack why would shrewdy owners, shrewdy trainers pay 12,18 months fees lay out plans months in advance when theres a good chance they,ll be meeting 2 or 3 dartboard hitters on the day of the shrewdys big race

IN the type of races your,  talking about regards Midgely imo your completely and utterly wrong
we,re always told in the sprinting division theres little difference between handicappers and listed ,group races and everything else is aligned, ground,trip.track,form,luck etc,etc,the horses mark is almost irrelevant

2k sportsbook, 2k paddys, 1k betbrite, job done

and if miracles happen and you get your money on with them,where do you go next time,

I supposes NAGGERS is another 18 month shrewd coup about to come off ,but no one including Midgely no,s when or where

people like you and the tv pundits will always in hindsight juggle different reasons around to justify a horse suddenly winning from no where, but the truth is no matter how much studying you do unless you,ve been to at least half a dozen funerals ,theres absolute no one including Midgely and the owners only turn up on the day of the wedding,so the wedding day is only making up or partly making up for all the funerals for most people the end result means they might as well have not bothered in the 1st place ,hence why the racing game ,this forum etc is dying on its arse, imo of course

Davetheat

I would be amazed if any horse with those sort of figures won a race !

As for TW, his back form in that type of race was there for all to see and bar a run over 6f (a trip he doesn't stay), he had been running well and was in  grade of race you would expect him to go close in.

I do agree in those 20 runner races, you may 3/4 similar types but it's all about value and these horses will often be prices where you could couple them. I would rather back 4 6-10/1 shots that look potentially well in, in a grade they can win, than gamble on a horse up 12lb for winning a race and placing in a couple of others at fav taking on horses who are back in the right grade.