Hi Guys and Gals (and those in-between if applicable),
Many of you will be fully aware of the daily/weekend lay threads that finished on July 1st (prior to my vacation) and created far more interest than i could have envisaged at the start in late April.
The overall record was 55/66 successful lays resulting in a profit of £1657, so i've decided to resurrect the concept, albeit starting from zero to make it more interesting, and precluding the safety net of a previous profit, hence this new thread.
The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit in the same time period, but from a personal prespective i would like to improve the previous success rate (including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices before, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this.
Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day, bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post.
I will also provide reasoning for the lay that could be an associated negative(s) or simply because i feel confident about another runner winning the race. For transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before.
The only difference this time is the lay will be posted on random days as opposed to every day previously, this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis.
Anyone is welcome to post in context of the thread title and i will hold my hands up and accept critismn when i get it wrong, this is a given at times due to the maximum 5/2 odds constraint that ensures most lays carry a degree of risk. Banter and humour is also welcomed, in fact i plan to ask Betfair to make it a requirement of posting, but no personal bickering please.
The Curragh 3.35 - Advertise
A small field of 6 that appears (on paper at least) to only concern the front two in the betting who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.
AOB loves the Phoenix Stakes, winning it for fun (16 times in the last 20 years) and if ever a race is to be named after him in retirement this one has to be a strong candidate. Several decent colts have won the race over the years and occasionally is a pointer to the following years 2000/1000 guineas on both sides of the Irish sea. Fillies are eligible to run, in fact, 3 of AOB's winners were as such and he runs 2 here today.
There aren't really any significant negatives concerning Advertise who is currently the favourite, but i feel the Sergei Prokofiev is the more likely winner and will probably end up the SP favourite.
Advertise has run 3 times, all at 6f, on good to firm going with a 1-2-1 record. His debut maiden win was fine, although nothing of note has come out of the race since (Pugo, the runner up by 0.75L won a class 3 nursery yesterday).
He won the July Stakes LTO (by 2L) and whilst it's a Group 2 race, it didn't look a particularly strong field this year, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th have all been beaten since. The 6th and 8th (last) placed have each won a soft race since, albeit at odds of 1/4 and 4/9 respectively.
Sergei Prokofiev was well fancied at 4/9 on debut (5f) but tenderly handled (as so often with an AOB 2 year old) finishing 2nd, beaten a head bob. He won his next 2 races (also 5f) very easily by 7L and 4.5L respectively, albeit against inferior opposition, yet looked very classy in both of them. A likeable Scat Daddy colt, travels well and has a good turn of foot. I rate him and if he wins well today could end up being AOB's highest rated 2 year old this season, at least on what we've seen so far.
The best form line in todays race concerns the 6f Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot won by the impressive Calyx where Sergei Prokofiev finished a neck 3rd behind Advertise (SP of 10/1 and 3/1 respectively) hence closeness in the betting between the two today.
I fancied SP strongly for the race, and although i've never jumped on the bandwagon of Ryan Moore detractors, on this occasion it certainly wasn't his finest hour by any means, the colt being ridden from the rear of the far side pack, caught behind several runners at a critical point and having to weave twice, once to the right, then left, losing momentum in the process.
Advertise had first run on him with ample room on the far side rail and was almost 2L up on him at the 2f marker. At the furlong pole, RM decided to switch SP to the near side of Vange (who was a couple of lengths up at the time, eventually finishing 4th) and he picked up really well eventually with a good turn of foot, but it wasn't sufficient to pass Advertise. With a straight and clearer run i'm confident he would have done, although whether he would have beaten Calyx is doubtful.
Although todays race is over 6f (and not an issue for either) i feel Advertise may be better over a longer trip in time, maybe even the 2000 guineas next year, but for me SP is a out-and-out 5f/6f sprinter (aka Carravagio) and will probably be aimed at the 2019 Sandy Lane Stakes and Commonwealth Cup etc even though he's entered in the 7f Futurity Stakes at The Curragh in 2 weeks time. Of course if he won impressively today, going away, this could change.
The Curragh 6f is also a little less demanding than Ascot, this may also suit him.
The going is currently good to firm, but it was raining overnight and showers are expected throughout the day. This will not be an issue for SP (won impressively on yielding at Navan) but Advertise is unproven on it.
Advertise currently has a 2 lb advantage on ratings (112-110) but as there was only a neck between them at RA, this figure is influenced by the July Stakes (2L beating of Kochchek, rated 106).
AOB has 4 entered, so expect team tactics to play a part although not significantly due to the small field.
If there is a negative about SP, AOB has by his own admission publicy stated his stable had been affected in parts by a bug, but media reports suggest all is well now. The betting may be an indicator if this is correct closer to race time.
Although i think the finish will only concern the main 2 protagonists, So Perfect may not be so far away taking a form line with Skitter Scatter literally, and she receives a 3 lb allowance, but i would be surprised if she, or any of the others won.
Selecting a short priced runner to start is a little risky (i did the same with Washington DC at 6/4 on the previous daily thread) although i'm as confident as i can be about SP winning even though he's not a certainty by any means, but my comments are the reasoning to lay Advertise at the odds. Good luck.
Not easy to make a profit, particularly under the thread circumstances - lay target price limit, posting hours before the off and trying to do it regularly while working.
It would be really interesting if you could combine the results from your threads and split your bet performance by price band, code, type of race etc. When I did this to my own betting my sweet-spot was between 6/4 and 7/2.
Have a good Christmas.
Well done Andrew.Not easy to make a profit, particularly under the thread circumstances - lay target price limit, posting hours before the off and trying to do it regularly while working.It would be really interesting if you could combine the results
crepello 11 Dec 18 14:43 Joined: 11 Jan 03 | Topic/replies: 1,607 | Blogger: crepello's blog domino14 - I used to quite enjoy some of your contributions before you were banned but you are doing yourself no favours with recent postings - you would be well advised to try to make some positive contributions or just shut up ....
There was nothing negative in my post, Flukes just tried to insinuate there was !
I was congratulating Andrew on £333 of profit over the last four months, and pointed out the per bet, weekly and monthly return. Christ knows how that is negative!
crepello 11 Dec 18 14:43 Joined: 11 Jan 03 | Topic/replies: 1,607 | Blogger: crepello's blogdomino14 - I used to quite enjoy some of your contributions before you were banned but you are doing yourself no favours with recent postings - you would be w
Cup of milk and pastry brush also tea spoon for sprinkling sugar.
Pint beer mug for cutting right size tops and bottoms.
Grease a couple of 12 hole non-stick pie dishes with butter using your finger.
Thaw the pastry at room temperature then cut one of the blocks in half and roll it on a plain floured surface until you can get about 12 pastry bases using the upturned beer mug to cut them out. (repeat for tops).
Do the next steps over a sheet of newspaper to save any mess.
Hold a pastry base in the palm of your hand, plop a tea spoon of mincemeat in the middle then brush around the edge with milk. (helps it to stick)
Now place a top on it and press all around the edge with the back of a fork to seal it. Stab the top 3 or 4 times with fork for air holes.
Still holding it in your hand brush the top with milk (it glazes it) and sprinkle sugar over it. Then just place it over one of the pie holes in the dish but don’t press it down.
Place them in a hot oven until they go golden brown. (about half hour).
Hope this all makes sense.
Give us a shout if you need any help - I'm only in the next room
I've tried to post a photo of them but having problems - not to worry.These are the ingredients :-Robertsons Classic Mincemeat (1 large or 2 small jars)https://groceries.morrisons.com/webshop/product/Robertsons-Mincemeat/256340011Jus-Rol puff pastry
cardenden 11 Dec 18 13:04 deadbrain ,, dont you understand people on here are laying andrew s for more than his 50 quid a day,, im treble his profit on his thread myself,
absolutely pmsl...wac..the forum should have a polygraph built in.
cardenden 11 Dec 18 13:04 deadbrain ,, dont you understand people on here are laying andrew s for more than his 50 quid a day,, im treble his profit on his thread myself,absolutely pmsl...wac..the forum should have a polygraph built in.
poor dombo frantically trying to justify his comments...
needs to justify this now..
domino14 12 Dec 18 12:48 ( re Khuzaam) In time maybe, but he needs 10f and is drawn out wide. Anyone betting odds on is brave. You'll get matched at 2/1 at least even if he does win, Amanda Perretts will take some pegging back.
how to embarrass oneself.
wd andrew and enjoy your break.poor dombo frantically trying to justify his comments...needs to justify this now..domino14 12 Dec 18 12:48 ( re Khuzaam) In time maybe, but he needs 10f and is drawn out wide. Anyone betting odds on is brave. You'l
Keep the thread alive - going to lay Protektorat in the 1st at Cheltenham at 3/1 - I know it is above AIS's threshold but competitive day racing today and not too many shorties! Can't see this beast wanting 2 miles on faster ground at Cheltenham, going to be a 2.5M + imvho. At least 4 running for you and horses with penalties have been previously very successful in this race. Tom George also has a 100% S/R with 2 wins from 2 runs. GL.
Keep the thread alive - going to lay Protektorat in the 1st at Cheltenham at 3/1 - I know it is above AIS's threshold but competitive day racing today and not too many shorties! Can't see this beast wanting 2 miles on faster ground at Cheltenham, goi
happysandwich • December 12, 2018 3:32 PM GMT ^^^^That's the way to do it.And I've finally managed to upload a photo of 36 real mince pies.http://community.betfair.com/happysandwich/go/gallery/item/160541907
Keep the thread alive with a Saturday Lay - Kildisart - 1.15 Ascot @ 3.0 (wouldn't chase it) probably be able to lay I/R lower. Trainer woefully out of form and Nichols has farmed this race with 5yr olds. Dolos to win with Actival the main danger, Kildisart only 3rd.
GL whatever you play today.
Keep the thread alive with a Saturday Lay - Kildisart - 1.15 Ascot @ 3.0 (wouldn't chase it) probably be able to lay I/R lower. Trainer woefully out of form and Nichols has farmed this race with 5yr olds. Dolos to win with Actival the main danger, Ki
The owners of Kilisart had another 2 winners today ballymoy 5/4,Valtor 33/1 and a 2nd @3/1 and 3rd @ 10/1 they have bought a few horses for this years NH season. worth watching their horses.
The owners of Kilisart had another 2 winners today ballymoy 5/4,Valtor 33/1 and a 2nd @3/1 and 3rd @ 10/1 they have bought a few horses for this years NH season. worth watching their horses.
Bit unlucky that Dolos who travelled really nicely did nothing after 2 out; to lose by the minimum is always gutting especially when it is a heavily backed favourite on a Saturday but not too much damage done. Can't back horses solely because of the owners - the Henderson beast at 33/1 was at least 80+ on here this morning.
Mick Fitz closed the ITV program saying how impressed he was with the "YOUNG ORSE" Valmart - it's a 9YR OLD Mick!!
Bit unlucky that Dolos who travelled really nicely did nothing after 2 out; to lose by the minimum is always gutting especially when it is a heavily backed favourite on a Saturday but not too much damage done. Can't back horses solely because of the
The problem could be that Andrew cannot (by Swedish Law) use a British gambling site any longer ie. after December 2018.
I seem to remember he mentioned it in one of his last posts.
Therefore even if he does manage to open a Swedish Betfair account it will be of no use as it doesn’t appear to have a Forum and even if it did it would be in Swedish.
The problem could be that Andrew cannot (by Swedish Law) use a British gambling site any longer ie. after December 2018.I seem to remember he mentioned it in one of his last posts.Therefore even if he does manage to open a Swedish Betfair account it
I've asked KC and crew to post this on my behalf but i will not be making a habit of it, in fact this is a one off occasion when i'm suggesting a possible lay before i can eventually open a new account.
The team at betfair.se informed me yesterday that as they are now regulated in Sweden (from January 1st) they cannot accept my local tax code (or utility bills) to open a new account, i must have a 'civil registration' number.
As i mentioned before i don't have this personsal number, so i have 2 options. I can contact the authorities here and request one, or try to open a new betfair.com account using my brothers address in UK, but i would probably need a bank account at the same address and they are not easy to open without proof of residence. In this case i also have to consider money laundering laws although i doubt this is an issue. I will be looking at both options in the forthcoming days so hopefully i can get this resolved, not only from a forum perspective but betting on the site. I don't have high street accounts, although my brother in UK occasionally acts as a backer on my behalf.
Below is my suggested lay.
Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape
A likeable stayer known to most followers of NH trained by Colin Tizzard.
Winner of 2 from 3 this season (post a wind operation). The first of these was a 4 horse race (24f) but the odds on favourite Terrefort (who re-opposes) apparantly suffered pulled muscles (beaten almost 50L) and the runner up has run poorly twice since.
He was a well beaten runner-up (10L) by Sizing Tennessee in the Ladbroke Trophy (26f) next time out but returned to winning form in the Weslh Grand National (29f). The latter was on very soft going and he had a hard race, so needs to fully recover.
Hasn't exactly excelled himself at Cheltenham in 3 races although to be fair, 2 were over hurdles (including the Albert Bartlett) and the other was a 3rd place (5 finishers) in the RSA.
An out and out stayer, he could be better over further and may also prefer it softer than today although i wouldn't say either are significant negatives. He's worse off at the weights with the improving Frodon than if this was a handicap and it's an open race where any of 5 can win (forget the outsider).
In my opinion he's probably better suited to good quality handicaps rather than the grade 2 type race today.
I don't have any reservations about Frodon staying the trip although i'm not suggesting he will win.
If i was able to start a new lay thread EE would certainly be on a short list of possible lays (assuming he was 3.75 or under of course). I would also have considered Apple's Shakira (was entered for the 4.10) but she's been pulled out (as she was for a similar handicap in December).
Good luck
Marts vs Domino challenge
It appears that Mart is going to win the battle of the giants (giants of what i'll leave you to decide) so in view of Dominios original posts on the thread he must be wishing he had been a little more modest, but the fat lady hasn't started singing yet. Good luck to both, although it doesn't really prove anything who ever wins, the time frame is far too short, but considering the two personalities, the bragging rights will be advertised often :-)
TheAnorak,
If you're still around, i received one of your books, The Inside Track, as a Christmas present from my sister (it was on my list amongst others i haven't got). I haven't started reading it yet, but will get round to it in due course.
I noticed Janika (a recent NH import) we discussed in December is running today.
Magic Daps
Bristol City on a roll, 6 wins in a row, unbeaten in 12, 7th in the league and the first team in 5th round of the FA cup. Not bad for a team that one poster suggested was relegation material early in the season :-)
Barton Bank
Well done with Point Zero on Thursday, maybe he's turned the corner :-)
Received at Naps Comp HQHi Guys,I've asked KC and crew to post this on my behalf but i will not be making a habit of it, in fact this is a one off occasion when i'm suggesting a possible lay before i can eventually open a new account.The team at betf
Hope you enjoy Inside Track and that it at least makes you laugh once or twice, but most of it is really out of date by now. I'm about halfway through a new book, a memoir of my life in racing and betting, with the working title 'A Wasted Life'. If and when I manage to complete it (the muse comes and goes!), my intention is to make it freely available as a readable PDF, rather than go through the bother of getting it printed and distributed.
Janika today is interesting - still well handicapped I believe, but I have a slight concern about him handling the track and the price is no bargain now.
Morning Andrew,Hope you enjoy Inside Track and that it at least makes you laugh once or twice, but most of it is really out of date by now. I'm about halfway through a new book, a memoir of my life in racing and betting, with the working title 'A Was
There’s 2 or 3 posters on here who may have his contact details perhaps they can get in touch with him just to let us know he’s OK.
There’s been no Swedish plane crashes recently so it can’t be his workmanship at Saab.
Hi Lampus nice to hear from you mate – hope your still winning.
There’s 2 or 3 posters on here who may have his contact details perhaps they can get in touch with him just to let us know he’s OK.There’s been no Swedish plane crashes recently so it can’t be his workmanship at Saab. Hi Lampus nice to hear f
Thanks for the replies lads. But The Fenman (aka Ghostofalexbird ) is on there, but talking to him is like banging your head against a brick wall.
This is The Fenmans post on there about Andrew :-
Not as far as I know phishy I see mouse is telling them he is on here on his thread but 1.01 he ain't I've e mailed him I've texted him but I have not an answer this year from him it's like he has dissapeared
I’m surprised as Andrew stayed at Ghosties house and they went racing together at Newmarket last year. Not like Andrew at all so I do hope he’s OK.
Ayedo & GlasgowThanks for the replies lads.But The Fenman (aka Ghostofalexbird ) is on there, but talking to him is like banging your head against a brick wall. This is The Fenmans post on there about Andrew :-Not as far as I know phishyI see mouse i
I've just noticed a few new posts on my lay thread and thought i would respond for clarrification.
Many thanks for the comments and concern, much appreciated.
With respect to my account, i read some comments (on another thread) advising me to use a VPN but this is not the answer, it's not a case of accessing an account from Sweden, i simply don't have one at the moment. My UK based account (with Swedish address and Barclays bank) was disabled at year end due to new gambling regulation in Sweden and trying to open a new account here hasn't been easy due to 'civil registration' number and 'bankid'. I have neither, although i do have a tax number, but Betfair.se wouldn't accept this. Anyway, i think i've resolved this although i haven't looked into this issue with urgency due to workload. I'm also seconded to Germany on occasions (part time) commuting at weekends although this will not be permanent. I could actually open an account there without problems, but there is no UK horse racing on the site.
I fully expect to be back when the turf flat season starts, or thereabouts, depending on workload although i'm not 100% sure i will start a new lay thread, but let's see.
Happysandwich,
The last email i can see from Ghost is September 22nd and i can't see any recent SMS messages from him, at least on my Saab phone and certainly not this year, unless i've missed them. If i have, apologies to him, but i don't think so.
I never stayed at his house (although he did offer) but i did meet him at Newmarket when i was over for Ten Sovereigns in the Middle Park (I also met Ed Thompson who posts as flashbookie). Regular readers of the thread will know how much i rate TS, i certainly posted enough (I backed him EW for the 2000 several weeks ago). I don't have any negative issues with him.
For further clarification, i have not joined puntersmate, but that is not necessarily a critique of the site.
In the meantime, be happy and good luck.
Received via Napscomp...Hi Guys,I've just noticed a few new posts on my lay thread and thought i would respond for clarrification.Many thanks for the comments and concern, much appreciated.With respect to my account, i read some comments (on another
Andrew, If you get to read this, many people on here would like to see you back posting on this forum. Thoroughly enjoyed the threads/write ups, non racing info included. Good luck with TS Happy, Hope your well and backing plenty of winners, well done good investigative work !
Andrew,If you get to read this, many people on here would like to see you back posting on this forum.Thoroughly enjoyed the threads/write ups, non racing info included. Good luck with TSHappy, Hope your well and backing plenty of winners, well done g
Me and Lampus will sleep like top’s tonight knowing everything’s ‘unkey dorey’.
Thanks Lucky hope you’re well too.
I’m only selectively betting on Hunter Chases following Koikeeper & Kemo Sabe’s advice and doing OK.
There’s one Thursday at Warwick 4.20 and one Friday at Wetherby 5.05. If you follow Koi’s advice on those two you won’t go far wrong. (hopefully)
Although I couldn’t help having £250 @ 1.42 on England tonight. Montenegro scoring first was just to test me ticker.
Thanks Andrew,Me and Lampus will sleep like top’s tonight knowing everything’s ‘unkey dorey’.Thanks Lucky hope you’re well too.I’m only selectively betting on Hunter Chases following Koikeeper & Kemo Sabe’s advice and doing OK.There’s
I've e mailed him I've texted him but I have not an answer this year from him it's like he has dissapeared
The last email i can see from Ghost is September 22nd and i can't see any recent SMS messages from him, at least on my Saab phone and certainly not this year, unless i've missed them. If i have, apologies to him, but i don't think so.
Well done Grimmy, you lemon, you've embarrassed yourself again Looks like the e-mails and texts were yet another figment of his vivid imagination.
This is The Fenmans post on there about Andrew :-I've e mailed him I've texted him but I have not an answer this year from him it's like he has dissapeared The last email i can see from Ghost is September 22nd and i can't see any recent SMS messages