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how on earth can the fav in the first race at Wolverhampton be an odds on chance
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Replies: 28
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Explain, as it's miles clear on figures.
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Looks short to me. Dropping in trip, 1st run AW round a bend. Might win but terrible value at 4/7
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Be Like Me - 71-74-75
Always outpaced over a galloping 5f last time out, needs 6f, trainer clearly tried to protect mark dropping back to 5f last time, handicapper refused to give it a mark, and now runs over 5f on a very sharp track. Fizzy Feet 43-61-71 Led over 5f last time, beaten by progressive type, bit to find with Botti horse. Anandita 53-63 Always outpaced last time out, has ground to find with Fizzy Feet. Everything else looks very moderate in race. The Fav; 84-84 Good debut behind progressive three times winner, and next time beat a horse who was luckless at Goodwood last week. Has penalty but is a colt against fillies and at least 10lb better figures and most suited to trip as well shaping both times over 6f as if 5f would be better suited, It deserves to be odds on, can get track into race behind Fizzy Feet who will most likely place again. Fav will win, best horse in race by 10lb+ |
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I make it a 1-4 shot. Lots of factors Jockey trainer and improvement
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Travelled strongly both races over 6f, looked like would win both easy, flattened out late on. Very much will improve for 5f, against horses who look cheap speed or in need for further out to get marks. Well drawn to get a tow off the pace horse.
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1.65 is resonable
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I bet it at 5/6 early, thought it was huge at that. Thought should be 1/3 - 2/7 ish on figures.
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^
hmmmm |
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WD op
first to 1000/1 u new |
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Well done layers, fav looks one of those who simply doesn't pick up after travelling well.
Kirk horse not off again for a mark, late headway into fourth. Well one OP. |
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C&D form strikes again. As I said fav was terrible value
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Got beat, but I wouldnt say it was terrible value. just my views
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I just banked on the jolly in my placepot, a bit surprised it got turned over though. Well done the layers.
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Its about value plain and simple keep looking at how the horses run and it will come to you.
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Winner progressive, getting 12lb off a horse who is probably a solid 80 horse. 4th could be one to take out race, depending how handicapper rates it.
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And according to Luke it was "a pretty straightforward start to the day."
The 1/2 hotpot jolly in the first and no doubt many peoples banker in doubles and trebles gets beat and he calls that "straightforward"! |
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Horse was 1.9 / 1.85 early on. Solid around 1.74 then into 1.68 ish when you posted.
Continued support into around 1.5 at the off. Narrowly touched off, by a more progressive horse, but I wouldn't say it was poor value. I could have layed off near the off for a profit either way, but didn't as thought it would win. But anyone who bet this morning or in the lead up to the race, could have if they wanted to trade out, as it was heavily supported in the last 10 minutes pre race. |
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Me personally, I struggle to take on SdS rides. Because at the back of my mind, he will usually be in the right place at the right time, and give the horse every possible chance of winning.
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Judging by this thread everyone was totally correct
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There is no value in losers. Were not talking about trading.
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flatcap
Date Joined: 23 Sep 01 Add contact | Send message 10 Aug 18 14:08 There is no value in losers. Were not talking about trading. Absolute nonsense |
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Domino14. Kirk horse not off again for a mark, late headway into fourth.
Was the 4th horse not trained by Botti and has a mark of 76 |
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Sorry yes Botti horse. BHA had it listed no mark, as did Racing Post, wasn't aware it had a mark of 76.
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NO worries. Yes it has a mark. Must be this week
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Thanks.
76 is a fair mark. 6f 0-80 would be of interest, me thinks he was trying to make it look harsh, and get 1lb off it. |
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Winner progressive, getting 12lb off a horse who is probably a solid 80 horse. 4th could be one to take out race,
And that's the bit to take out of the thread for those who still need to. |