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dustybin
20 Jul 18 17:44
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Date Joined: 29 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 32,058 | Blogger: dustybin's blog
With the bookies milking the IR exchange markets while bf watch their product killed infront of their eyes?Cry

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Replies: 31
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 17:46
one did at chepstow recently defo
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 17:48
Betfair's rearguard action to offer a money back promotion on odds on losers upto 10 quid
By:
jamesdean
When: 20 Jul 18 17:54
Did it have any effect the fear, any difference to in running market on here?
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 17:58
Isnt there a requirement to declare whether they are carrying them or not to the public?
Or do the traditional bookies just quietly get on with torpedoing their competitors battleship without any mention?
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:09
no idea james i just know a friends runner was asked to carry a chip no explanation
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:13
do you remember when the ex betfair staffers were getting the scores direct from the umpire in tennis, dusty? This will go the same way. T.H.E.Y will have all angles covered.
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:13
although potential stewards enquiries must be an issue?
By:
jamesdean
When: 20 Jul 18 18:20
What am I missing?

You can tell where every horse is in the race now to within under a second but you couldn't do a price on them without seeing
the race or how well theyre going.

If horse a is 5l clear 2f out but has been going like the clappers from the gate, how can they price that
compared to a horse b that is 5l clear 2f out that has just overtaken the field after being held up out the back

I think and hope it's all a lot of sh1te, another useless gimmick
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:26
loads of ways i shd imagine mate. They won't have the whole market covered but a fast finisher compared to one stopping?
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:28
It will be linked to an AI
If a horse travels significantly at the beggining they know

Its not a gimmick, all margins will be lost in due course as the odds will be relative to the actual chance of winning, meaning its pretty pointless in betting longterm, be like a lottery, some you get right others you dont but all bad value so everyone playing loses.

If I were bf's competitor Id kibosh the exchange without letting bf have the data, why would they do anything other than that?
The question is what exactly bf got up their sleave to stop the exchange being dismantled by bookies?
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:31
get in first Laugh
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:31
if it became 'no lose' betfair could tax them out of it
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:32
bf will also make from the proceeds to start with, as the bookies winning will bay to shred the exchange.
But from bf's point of view it would be like infanticide, profiting from the ultimate demise.
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:39
I guess it would manifest itself as a big player taking up most of all markets with turnover and making a heavy profit as all others user lose, then stop.
How do bf stop that?
Its just another punter using data that betfair cant control, they will take 60%, but they wont get the punters back once the odds not offered them anychance.
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:39
Be like a parasite taking over the host till the host is dead
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 20 Jul 18 18:40
dusty , i believe betfair are in talks with the company to provide this to betfairs customers .

are betfair already using it and testing it out , probably . will it be any good for the exchange probably not .

the only upside will be that the bot or AI , will not be able to see one cruising upside one that is struggling 3f out . so long as both horses stride patterns remain the same
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 20 Jul 18 18:41
are betfair already using it and testing it out

quite possible why willie and others have found the liquidity to be poor lately Confused
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:44
if that was the case the money willie WAS getting should show on the graph if someone else is getting it? Which it isnt?
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:46
I look at it like cricket when one team are well on top
If they off too hard a target the opposition closes down and plays for a draw.
But to use the advantage they have to offer just enough to give the opponent a fighting chance.

The problem is companies dont see long term tactics they thinks short term profit.
So that horse thats cantering will already be known on previous running style what its likely true ods would be, and only those true odds will be left available, and it will be a pure gamble of will it or wont it win, 4/6 the both
By:
pablo-fanque
When: 20 Jul 18 18:47
TF , that's true , but you never know what betfair can do in their own markets .
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:48
cant stop technology unfortunately. One upside would be the demise of track players? Most people who arent track players wouldn't shed any tears over that i guess.
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:48
indeed pablo
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:51
The only saving grace is actually the very thing the exchange argued it would counter; the tactic of the jockey, owner, trainer.
Whatever the tech can see, it cant determine if the jockey gunna bother.
You can probably guess though theyd then start offering up the stats to police whether trainers wernt putting it in
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 18:55
any good news, dusty?Grin
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 18:57
nowt that comes to mind TFMischief
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 20 Jul 18 18:58
D of E still alive.
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 19:00
lol
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 19:00
chips for tea
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 19:00
but feckin quorn with em Cry
By:
TheFear
When: 20 Jul 18 19:01
quorn is a crime against humanity ffs
By:
dustybin
When: 20 Jul 18 19:04
Nowt else in the freezer till I do another shop
Bought em thinking Id cut down on meat, and put em off for months
Now no choice
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