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Method
Nevison looks for value bets. Value bets are where the market has underestimated a horse's chance of winning therefore pricing it higher than its chance of winning.
Nevison first considers the type of races to focus his attention on. He focuses on races where it is easier to predict the running of the race. He emphasises the importance of understanding the running of a race when he says "...you need to see it in your head". To improve his chances of predicting how the race will be run, he limits most of his analysis to races with distances of no more than a mile. This reduces his risk of picking a race where the speed is not true.
Nevison assesses the form of runners in selected races including their historical speed performance. He will establish his own price for each runner based on his assessment of various factors associated with each runner. He will then focus on runners that the market prices at over 15% higher than the price he arrived at (this is a potential value bet).
He considers the chances of the favourite when determining his selections by categorising the favourite on a scale from 'legitimate' to 'false'.
Key Facts
Nevison wakes at 4 am each day to analyse form and prepare for the day.
He started as a professional horse picker when he took a £70,000 pay-out from his job.
He favours Handicap races up to a mile. He understands that it might be easier to pick winners in Group races but tends not to focus on them as it is more difficult to make a profit i.e. identify value bets.
Nevison sites one of the key challenges of the trade as being able to handle the losing runs.
Nevison suggests sticking to a single branch of racing, to have patience with it, continue to learn about it and master it.
Now you know where you are going wrong our Dave is up and ready to go at 4am what are you doing at 4am ?
Nevison looks for value bets. Value bets are where the market has underestimated a horse's chance of winning therefore pricing it higher than its chance of winning.
Nevison first considers the type of races to focus his attention on. He focuses on races where it is easier to predict the running of the race. He emphasises the importance of understanding the running of a race when he says "...you need to see it in your head". To improve his chances of predicting how the race will be run, he limits most of his analysis to races with distances of no more than a mile. This reduces his risk of picking a race where the speed is not true.
Nevison assesses the form of runners in selected races including their historical speed performance. He will establish his own price for each runner based on his assessment of various factors associated with each runner. He will then focus on runners that the market prices at over 15% higher than the price he arrived at (this is a potential value bet).
He considers the chances of the favourite when determining his selections by categorising the favourite on a scale from 'legitimate' to 'false'.
Key Facts
Nevison wakes at 4 am each day to analyse form and prepare for the day.
He started as a professional horse picker when he took a £70,000 pay-out from his job.
He favours Handicap races up to a mile. He understands that it might be easier to pick winners in Group races but tends not to focus on them as it is more difficult to make a profit i.e. identify value bets.
Nevison sites one of the key challenges of the trade as being able to handle the losing runs.
Nevison suggests sticking to a single branch of racing, to have patience with it, continue to learn about it and master it.
Now you know where you are going wrong our Dave is up and ready to go at 4am what are you doing at 4am ?
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He doesn't post on twitter as Malcolm Boyle does he?
Dave is up and ready to go at 4am what are you doing at 4am ?
Enjoying a good night's sleep and the fruits of my labour from previous years. Not burning the midnight oil still trying to crack it at his age.
Enjoying a good night's sleep and the fruits of my labour from previous years. Not burning the midnight oil still trying to crack it at his age.
Whose this nevison sounds a shrewdie to me.Has he a book or something I can buy??
Wakes at 4 am
Cracks open bottle of Red 415 am
Back to bed 425 am
Wakes up and boards the gravy train 1030 am
Cracks open bottle of Red 415 am
Back to bed 425 am
Wakes up and boards the gravy train 1030 am
Bitterness, resentment, envy, not very nice traits and you have all three sadside, try moving on...!
Given his admitted inebriated exploits - when he was 'on tour'- punting at tracks all over the country - then I am amazed that he was in bed BEFORE 4 am.
Regarding his methodology - that is not what he has worked out for himself, but merely what Eddie showed him.
However - just as so-called 'Speed Ratings' are completely beholden to the individual's 'interpretation of the mythical 'Going Allowance' - and entirely reliant upon that GUESS. ... so is the Nevison approach entirely RELIANT upon his 'interpretation of HIS TISSUE PRICE.
NOBODY can anywhere near accurately forecast the correct price for EVERY horse in a race - let alone practically EVERY RACE.
You can see A horse, or perhaps 2, that are 'out of line' relevant to your assessment of THAT INDIVIDUAL horse's chance -
- BUT - you do NOT simply step in then and back it, PURELY, because of that ... You ONLY BACK them (and often with an increased stake) WHEN you ALREADY FANCY that horse's chance - BEFORE knowingthe Offer Price.... and you ONLY back THAT horse.
Conversely - If it is, say, 9/4 and you are looking for 7/2 - then you leave it alone
To get anywhere NEAR formulating a TISSUE for a WHOLE race - and then backing ALL the "15%" blobs - you would need to be an ABSOLUTE and ACCURATE ASSESSOR of FORM - and even then, how can you also allow for all the (unknown at the time of the Tissue compilation) GAMBLES and 'Not Offs'
To try to then operate at such a finite percentage of 15% - above a perceived 'GUESS price' is frankly ridiculous, and inoperable, in the longer term.
Dave Nevison does not come across as a diligent serious FORM STUDENT, as shown by his subsequent appearances on RUK - no more than the other guessers like Yates - and it follows, therefore, the his TISSUE, like most others, could only be seriously flawed compared to the eventual prices on offer.
Perhaps that is why he gave up the methodology, and punting - and where his £70,000, presumably, went, too.
Regarding his methodology - that is not what he has worked out for himself, but merely what Eddie showed him.
However - just as so-called 'Speed Ratings' are completely beholden to the individual's 'interpretation of the mythical 'Going Allowance' - and entirely reliant upon that GUESS. ... so is the Nevison approach entirely RELIANT upon his 'interpretation of HIS TISSUE PRICE.
NOBODY can anywhere near accurately forecast the correct price for EVERY horse in a race - let alone practically EVERY RACE.
You can see A horse, or perhaps 2, that are 'out of line' relevant to your assessment of THAT INDIVIDUAL horse's chance -
- BUT - you do NOT simply step in then and back it, PURELY, because of that ... You ONLY BACK them (and often with an increased stake) WHEN you ALREADY FANCY that horse's chance - BEFORE knowingthe Offer Price.... and you ONLY back THAT horse.
Conversely - If it is, say, 9/4 and you are looking for 7/2 - then you leave it alone
To get anywhere NEAR formulating a TISSUE for a WHOLE race - and then backing ALL the "15%" blobs - you would need to be an ABSOLUTE and ACCURATE ASSESSOR of FORM - and even then, how can you also allow for all the (unknown at the time of the Tissue compilation) GAMBLES and 'Not Offs'
To try to then operate at such a finite percentage of 15% - above a perceived 'GUESS price' is frankly ridiculous, and inoperable, in the longer term.
Dave Nevison does not come across as a diligent serious FORM STUDENT, as shown by his subsequent appearances on RUK - no more than the other guessers like Yates - and it follows, therefore, the his TISSUE, like most others, could only be seriously flawed compared to the eventual prices on offer.
Perhaps that is why he gave up the methodology, and punting - and where his £70,000, presumably, went, too.
15% a bit tight. I use:
MAX(1.3,(130+(AD51)*2-2)/100)
MAX(1.3,(130+(AD51)*2-2)/100)
If he goes to a horse's wake avery morning at 4.00AM no wonder he is inebriated.
Like that post onlooker especially this bit:
You can see A horse, or perhaps 2, that are 'out of line' relevant to your assessment of THAT INDIVIDUAL horse's chance -
- BUT - you do NOT simply step in then and back it, PURELY, because of that ... You ONLY BACK them (and often with an increased stake) WHEN you ALREADY FANCY that horse's chance - BEFORE knowingthe Offer Price.... and you ONLY back THAT horse.
Conversely - If it is, say, 9/4 and you are looking for 7/2 - then you leave it alone
You can see A horse, or perhaps 2, that are 'out of line' relevant to your assessment of THAT INDIVIDUAL horse's chance -
- BUT - you do NOT simply step in then and back it, PURELY, because of that ... You ONLY BACK them (and often with an increased stake) WHEN you ALREADY FANCY that horse's chance - BEFORE knowingthe Offer Price.... and you ONLY back THAT horse.
Conversely - If it is, say, 9/4 and you are looking for 7/2 - then you leave it alone
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