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Gonna start a thread, striving to spot value on the favourite.
Sometime going to back it sometimes lay.
Starting with a lay of 16:45 Brighton Cosmogrial @ 3.8
It only 3 starts so far have all gone off at BFSP's of 450, 740, & 550
So why the huge jump into favouritism?
here's hoping it's not going to justify its sudden spot light
Sometime going to back it sometimes lay.
Starting with a lay of 16:45 Brighton Cosmogrial @ 3.8
It only 3 starts so far have all gone off at BFSP's of 450, 740, & 550
So why the huge jump into favouritism?
here's hoping it's not going to justify its sudden spot light
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If this Lay had won you would have had about 20 replies by now !!!! Well done, good start, 3/1 unpl fav.
ran like a 500/1 shot, finished 7/10 
Didn't manage to get much on the lay place, Could I have taken that as a sign and gone in heavier maybe?
Didn't manage to get much on the lay place, Could I have taken that as a sign and gone in heavier maybe?
3:00 Carlisle Paparazzi back @ 4
Some value here, I would say it should be about 2.5 to 3 ( so it's still greater than 50% to lose )
Some value here, I would say it should be about 2.5 to 3 ( so it's still greater than 50% to lose )
Win lose or draw it was never a 2.5 to 3 chance. Shortest back on here pre-race was 3.15.
All I can do is assess what % of winning I think it is, and if the odds differ by enough then its a back or a lay.
30% of faves win year in year out. Wouldn't it be nice to know which 30%. btw, a few years ago 43 consecutive faves lost, BUT 30% of faves still won that year. Get my drift!!
Bath 17:50
1 Winged Spur Back @2.00
(IRE)1 win from 3 runs this year. Career best when winning 8-runner handicap at Ripon (9.8f, good, 11/2) 7 days ago, unchallenged.
Doesn't carry a penalty for that success and strong claims.
1 Winged Spur Back @2.00
(IRE)1 win from 3 runs this year. Career best when winning 8-runner handicap at Ripon (9.8f, good, 11/2) 7 days ago, unchallenged.
Doesn't carry a penalty for that success and strong claims.
Now 2.3 
Not looking good.
In future all bets will be to BSP
Not looking good.
In future all bets will be to BSP
Nott 2:50
Extra Elusive LAY @ 1.25
Highly promising sort. 7/1, won 14-runner minor event at Newbury (8f, good to soft) on debut in October, impressively. Exciting prospect now embarking on 3-y-o campaign.
I think its a lay at these odds, "promising" maybe, and 'maybe' is the pertinent point here
Extra Elusive LAY @ 1.25
Highly promising sort. 7/1, won 14-runner minor event at Newbury (8f, good to soft) on debut in October, impressively. Exciting prospect now embarking on 3-y-o campaign.
I think its a lay at these odds, "promising" maybe, and 'maybe' is the pertinent point here
I have also layed it at 1.19,should win but minimal damage.
and it wins fairly easily.
First half of race it didn't settle and I thought my chances were getting better
First half of race it didn't settle and I thought my chances were getting better
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