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could be a muddling race with no front runner
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thought about a small bet on Idaho against the fav.............the ground he will like but I think he needs a strong pace and unless cliffs of moher makes the running it could turn into a farce.....
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he front run in a race at York in which ulysees beat Churchill so its possible...............its awful to think a derby 2nd as a pacemaker
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3 runs in 5/6 runner fields all with moore up - 3 wins
but, did seem to pull a bit at last years RA. ground prob not 100% right for him. betting should be somewhat of a guide. Moher beaten pointless by a stoute horse and they'll know ocean and poets compare. if he starts 1.49 or shorter he wins, else be cautious |
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Idaho and Barsanti were 1st and 2nd in this race last year, but i think the placings will be reversed. It's not a particularly strong field (favourite apart) and we all know they run from off the pace, so I suspect CoM will set slow frsctions to make it tactical for his stablemate.
Michael Stoute has a good record in the race, won 7 from the last 12 runnings. Crystal Spirit has 4 lb in hand on ratings, travels well, trip and going will not be a problem and it's a small field, so he's the right price, but not a certainty, although i'm a backer. Good luck. |
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Way to Short in my book, yes clearly has an obvious chance but he's no 1/2 shot for me. i can find better odds on shots then that. Thought Barsanti could be a real threat to the Jolly plus His Form is working out. Currently a no play race for me.....see what the market does nearer the off might get some more clues there.
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I really do think the favourite is vulnerable here. Just got a feeling that something will nail it for speed. Looking at overall form I actually favour the two that fought out the finish to last year's event.I simply can't forget how close the favourite came to being beaten by Fabricate, albeit over an inadequate trip. Should have buried it really. If forced to name a winner? Idaho.
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Roy,
Correct, he nearly was beaten by Fabricate, but it was his first run of the season whereas the other was race fit, and it was an inadequate trip as you pointed out. He stayed on really well that day, i thought he was beaten at the furlong marker. Crystal Ocean is relatively lightly raced in the context of todays field and is probably still improving. He's never run to a lower rating in each of his sucessive races, and if he only runs to the same mark as LTO will probably win. The negative is lack of pace, but it's the same for all of them. Good luck. |
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Good morning Andrew. It may just be that I am suffering from "Post Cracksman Syndrome!" Very best of luck today and keep up the good work!
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Thanks Roy.
Cracksman surprised quite a few, but as Frankie said, he's not the same horse. It wouldn't surprise me if there's something amiss (with the horse, not Frankie  ) and we've seen the last of him, but I was always of the opinion Enable would beat him in the Arc. |
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Fancy the fav to ground them into submission. Last ten winners were all four year olds, so that's a major plus.
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