There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
22 Jun 18
01:01
Joined:
Date Joined:
05 Oct 11
After three days of carnage I am beginning to think it wouldn't have been a bad idea.
When you think about it the odds are stacked against the punter. You have the enormous fields which inevitably can lead to several groups. Low draws can appear favoured only for high draws to suddenly appear favoured. This week front running looked impossible then today it was possible. The round course isn't far behind in terms of difficulty. Slow start or hung out wide and it is usually game over. The propensity for jocks to mess up is massive.
This is supposed to be the best racing of the season but from a punting angle luck plays a bigger part here than anywhere else.
When you think about it the odds are stacked against the punter. You have the enormous fields which inevitably can lead to several groups. Low draws can appear favoured only for high draws to suddenly appear favoured. This week front running looked impossible then today it was possible. The round course isn't far behind in terms of difficulty. Slow start or hung out wide and it is usually game over. The propensity for jocks to mess up is massive.
This is supposed to be the best racing of the season but from a punting angle luck plays a bigger part here than anywhere else.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 50
|
By:
Tommy Robinson had an altercation there last year. Don't think he's been back there this.
|
|
By:
I dont agree but can offer a hand.
Use races with smaller fields. Use low draws on the round course and pay the small price adjustment, hopefully get a run for your money. If doesn't bug me when they split, its when nags run alone that annoys me, would prefer they join the pack, but try and play AvB potentially? plenty of liquidity if you have a strong stance at evens. |
|
By:
you back dettori,Moore wins
you back moore. Dettori wins |
|
By:
Yes, didn't bother with a bet yesterday. Most over hyped sporting event on the calendar.
|
|
By:
No but maybe i should.
Never done well at Royal Ascot This year even worse, been a disaster. |
|
By:
Just had 3 bets so far and wouldn't dream of betting in those big fields.
|
|
By:
Taking a beating so far and cant see it getting any better but its by far my fav Meeting of the Year.....I don't even look at any other Card when Royal Ascots On.
 |
|
By:
This is the best time to look at other cards when this meeting takes place.
|
|
By:
Also from an overall perspective & I'm sure I'm in the minority I much prefer Glorious Goodwood
|
|
By:
I love the RA meeting every year, although understand the frustration from some punters. A lot of large field handicaps and novice events, but that's obvious due to nature of the meeting, it's the same at any festival including NH. The draw is often difficult to judge as well .............. but you're not forced to bet.
Looking at the results, barring Cracksman i haven't seen so many shocks in the non-handicaps and he wasn't such a good thing anyway. Calyx 2/1f Without Parole 9/4f Kew Gardens 100/30 maigc Wand 100/30 Stradivarius 7/4jf Were all strongly fancied, and even Blue Point and Shang Shang Shang were touted. There's still 2 days left with several 'form horses' that could oblige. |
|
By:
Magic Wand
|
|
By:
done well so far, including a 25-1 and a 14-1 winner, but know what you mean. reminds me of cheltenham which also gets ridiculously hyped up but isn't any easier for the punter.
the advantage you have in your favour is it tends to favour the class horses. there's a lot of dead wood in these races. I'm no fan of the formbook and tend to assess horses visually, and some you just can't miss. having said that tend to do better in some races than others. find the races on the straight course are easier to work out sometimes than those on the round course. I've done well in the gold cup over the years but that race is so long doubt that the draw plays much of a part; however in a ten furlong race at ascot it seems to me that if you're drawn wide and have to run out wide you have very little hope of winning. You'd have to be dancing brave to win from some of these positions. whereas on the straight course you always have some sort of chance. |
|
By:
Very easy to pick out a few 'relative' short ones but in most of the races there were several horses around the same prices who obviously didn't win.
Blue Point was an each-way point against the front two and many would have given on Ward after his supposedly best two chances bombed. The horse also defied what looked a significant bias against front runners on the first two days. I take the point about small fields but these days everyone wants to run and there aren't that many. We are probably talking Prince Of Wales's and Hardwicke. Cracksman was turned over so level stakes on the two hotpots (not my way of betting anyway) and the double is in the satchels. The Norfolk wasn't easy - see above - and although the Queen's Vase was won easily the market indicates what an open look it had pre-race. The Gold Cup was a coin toss. |
|
By:
Well done on those big prices. That's what you need.
I think I have had one losing Cheltenham in the last ten or so. Ascot wouldn't be anywhere near comparable. Last year I was saved by a couple of big prices. This year I have only had a saver on a Calyx and a couple of others placed, notably Gossamer Wings. A search party couldn't find the rest. Even a big price today would only reduce losses. Tomorrow looks impossible to claw anything back. |
|
By:
I don't think it's impossible. Why's it impossible? you just need a bit of luck.
Gambling is 99 percent luck imo. probably just happens that a bad run you are having is coinciding with royal ascot. |
|
By:
basically 4 races a day, if you're getting involved after half four any day you must be high on something ...
|
|
By:
the jersey not worth getting involved with?
|
|
By:
4/1 fav, finished 16th of 21. 11 places behind a 100/1 shot.
no thank you. |
|
By:
waste of time unless its a smallish decent field with reasonable prices, like 5/2,11/4 fav
|
|
By:
I personally believe it's better to bet in better quality races, and Ascot being a prime example. If you can't make it pay betting in good races where pretty much all the horses are trying, then you wont make it pay betting in any races. Betting in Class 5's and lower is a recipe for disaster, as under 30% of the field will be trying and the blind punter will be at a major disadvantage. If you have a good head for form, you should be able to make it pay betting on better quality racing, if you can't it's not the racing that's the problem, it's your judgement.
|
|
By:
The above is generally true but if luck plays such a big part then it doesn't really matter if all the horses are trying. The horse might be trying but still be slowly away, stuck out wide, tracking the wrong horses. Far too many ways for the jocks to mess up.
|
|
By:
@DD
You would have to be unbelievably unlucky to have that happen to every bet though ! |
|
By:
agree that if you can't make it pay on the quality stuff logic hardly suggests you are going to clean up on the dross.
2.30 just wonderful/ saver on stillwater cover 3.05 old persian 3.40 hey jonesy each way 4.20 alpha centurai 5.00 qaznar/ ship of dreams follow me i'm in form  |
|
By:
The assumptions on low grade racing are simply made from your own experiences and we all have our different ways of playing the game.
|
|
By:
It has been generally accepted the low class races are the most openly and easily manipulated ie stables will take it in turn to win them, For instance, if there were 3 fancied horses in one the temptation to collude between these 3 stables (allegedly) is most likely to take place to benefit at least these 3 stables chiefly at the expense of the punters, unlikely bookies (they will screamed foul play); that stable's book will be marked forever, I firmly believe; withholding winnings could also be implemented until an official enquiry has been concluded.
|
|
By:
lewisham ranger 22 Jun 18 09:44
done well so far, including a 25-1 and a 14-1 winner .............. I'm no fan of the formbook and tend to assess horses visually, and some you just can't miss. --------------- lewisham - Where, When, and how - are you, "assessing," these horses (presumably the whole fieldS) "visually"? - in order to make your selections - without the Form Book? |
|
By:
I watch the videos mate, not rocket science is it.
|
|
By:
@Lewisham
I appreciate you watch video's but without an understanding of form (the standard of race, and whats in it) how can that give you a guide as to what to bet. I personally believe visually impressive winners normally achieve little as they beat little in doing so and the handicapper makes their lives impossible, obviously there are some exceptions but they are normally freaks whose prices will never be punter friendly. |
|
By:
well I don't always go on visual impression domino.
obviously I'm aware of the ratings.for example in the jersey I went for expert eye whereas in the past I would have gone for a visually impressive maiden winner like arabian coast, who had no substance to his form. or for example today, in the past I would have thought equaliteral was a certainty, now I'm more cynical, been stung by some of these in the past, now I realize the value of experience and having some substance |
|
By:
just think people become too obsessed by the form, which horse has beaten this horse by four lengths or whatever, I've always thought the whole obsession with form in horse racing is overrated, but I guess that's just me.
|
|
By:
I have layed Equalateral in the 3TBP market
|
|
By:
Equilateral's figure at Doncaster for a Novice winner was unreal. It actually puts him 4th in on figures and he was eased close home and won with any amount in hand.
He only has 6lb to find with the best of these on that figure. For me he could be an absolute machine and it is a step up in class, but if he can find just 10lb more than he showed last time, then he can win this. I've actually bet him 4 places, and got him as one of my winners in the race. He looks like he could be a very exciting horse. |
|
By:
What a coincidence -
I was just about to post on this thread ... 'lewisham - Andrew in Sweden might want a word with you'.  |
|
By:
Domino,
I appreciate what you're saying, and i agree Equilateral could be a Dayjur, but he has to show me more first. I posted reasons on the Equilateral thread and don't need to re-post them here. I didn't lay for the win, simply the 3TBP @ 2.5, so not a significant liability. |
|
By:
lewisham ranger 22 Jun 18 11:14 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 3,064 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
agree that if you can't make it pay on the quality stuff logic hardly suggests you are going to clean up on the dross. 2.30 just wonderful/ saver on stillwater cover 3.05 old persian 3.40 hey jonesy each way 4.20 alpha centurai 5.00 qaznar/ ship of dreams follow me i'm in form Wink 2/4 so far for the guesser |
|
By:
onlooker
22 Jun 18 13:27 What a coincidence - I was just about to post on this thread ... 'lewisham - Andrew in Sweden might want a word with you' ........... where did Equilateral finish ? Andrew in Sweden 22 Jun 18 13:38 I didn't lay for the win, simply the 3TBP @ 2.5, so not a significant liability. |
|
By:
WD Lewisham
|
|
By:
Just over 8 months for Cheltenham..
|
|
By:
On the whole it has been a fackin bloodbath for punters.....Roll on Tomorrow when the show is finished I have had a gutful.
 |