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roder2
20 Jun 18 19:44
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Date Joined: 18 Jan 17
| Topic/replies: 7,259 | Blogger: roder2's blog
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Report 11kv June 20, 2018 7:56 PM BST
Hold on I shall have a look..
Report Twoboyz June 20, 2018 8:05 PM BST
yes
Report TheFear June 20, 2018 8:09 PM BST
surely changes are coming for the PC, BF haemorraghing (sp) business to rivals
Report roder2 June 20, 2018 8:24 PM BST
Well you can now negotiate a fixed % on a 3 mths basic
Report Willie Shafter. June 20, 2018 8:57 PM BST
and if you're beating pc they will raise it..
Report smirnoff2therescue June 20, 2018 9:01 PM BST
is that whats happened Steve - if so that didnt last long CryCry - will have a chat next Fri if ya dont wanna ansa here
Report lewisham ranger June 20, 2018 9:07 PM BST
bf shooting themselves in the foot as high-rollers taking their business elsewhere.
Report Wicklow June 20, 2018 9:10 PM BST
I was wondering if its worth the effort calling them up to get a fixed % but by the sounds of it you will just end up paying the same.

Wille - Do you think your anyway better off from it financially, and the mindset must help - not getting railroaded on a wednesday especially if you have a poor mon/tues ?

cheers
Report JML June 20, 2018 9:23 PM BST
Willie did say that his profit per race fell when he went on fixed rate.

It could be that he was subconsciously waiting a fraction of a second longer to make a bet.
Report Willie Shafter. June 20, 2018 11:59 PM BST
i changed 5 weeks ago..done my absolutes ever since.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:05 AM BST
Tell me it aint so? coincidence?
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 12:33 AM BST
from the day i changed i found it nigh on impossible..as of start of yesterday i was about level over the 5 weeks but had 4 losing days totalling 30k ish and paid around 8-9k commission.
theres nothing to lay at big prices..clicking £14 @1000 and getting matched 100-1000..sometimes 30-40 bets all under 20p.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:37 AM BST
Same for the rest of your crew?
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 12:43 AM BST
not as such becos not many lay big prices,most aint got the funds ..most aint got the bottle..

a high number of track players are struggling badly..exe's/pc etc is killing them..its punter v bot now in last 3f..there just isnt enough to keep everyone going...lots will be leaving in running this year without doubt..seats at tracks arnt selling anymore..boxes wont be filled next year.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:50 AM BST
The other guys in your box, are they basically all trying to back the one o ones?
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 1:33 AM BST
i'd say 90% of track players are backers..not necessarily big amounts at very short prices..most actually aint got the funds to risk..lot play mid race for smaller stakes.
Report Wicklow June 21, 2018 6:46 AM BST
sorry to hear about the bad run willie - hope you turn the corner.

yah im not sure about the flat rate, if you win and lose alot during the day to be an overall winner, you will prob end up paying more in commission than the PC and when your winning your only getting 80-85% of what you should be getting it might skew the figures.

maybe sometimes your better off with the devil you know even if it is PC.

Anyhow Good luck getting the mojo back and getting back on track.
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 9:58 AM BST
I really believe BF will have to make changes.

Previously they didn't care about the exchange because there were no rivals and the Sportsbook could pick up the "mug" money.

This was flawed imo and they should have gone with the idea of BF being the "one-stop" shop where punters placed all their bets, exchange, tote, sportsbook, football or whatever. There would be no reason to leave the site.

It's seem incredible that they have no allowed other rivals to emerge. One competitor offering 0% commission for a long period is extremely aggressive and a very good strategy imo. Take the short term hit but build up a big pool of punters who once they have switched might not switch back because imo we are creatures of habit.

The picture situation is obviously the other dire problem. Again Betfair should have some clout in this area but can't seem to use it/don't want to.
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 9:59 AM BST
have now* allowed
Report JML June 21, 2018 10:36 AM BST
Offering 0% doesn't attract the recreational punters.Purple have been 0% in the past.

There will be thousands of examples every day of a punter taking a price
when he would of got a better price in another shop 20 yards away.
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 10:46 AM BST
it's not just about recreational punters though is it, there is a group (imo) in between professional and recreational. Ive tried purple obviously but never felt they were serious about closing the gap. MB going 0% til xmas is much more like it. And word of mouth is important,,,
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 10:49 AM BST
the mentality i cant understand from betfair is why arent they greedy for ALL the money? I am pc because of in running, so why pc me if i want £50 pre-race on something today? It's insane to send me elsewhere for that.
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 10:51 AM BST
bookies and pros must be lapping up this 0% surely. BF liquidity looks down on Ascot to my eyes.
Report JML June 21, 2018 10:56 AM BST
I am pc because of in running, so why pc me if i want £50 pre-race on something today? It's insane to send me elsewhere for that.

You haven't thought it through properly.
Report JML June 21, 2018 11:14 AM BST
This is the calculation.

Take a really bad scenario of 50% PC and 5% commission.

The bet is £1000 at 2/1. 

Winnings are 2000-100-950                                  £950

Loses are £1000 with a reduction of £515 in PC           --£485


If you weren't on PC and had £485 on 2-1 you would have won

£970-48.5 = £921.50.

In fact you are winning more by being on PC.

If you want to risk £50 just place a £100 bet.
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 11:58 AM BST
i have thought it through (and im not just saying that because i think it was you who mentioned it the other day?).

I think you have to take human nature into consideration and the fact that PC payers aren't guaranteed to be winning all the time. The reduction in pc for the future isn't much good to me if im on an iffy run. And im not talking literally about myself.

If someone else asks me to put £50 on a 6/1 shot. What do i do, risk the PC hit if it wins or play the long game you suggest or just stick it one elsewhere at 0%?
Report JML June 21, 2018 12:05 PM BST
I agree with you in that when wanting to place a bet people will only see the negative affect of PC.

I'm sure you've had iffy runs before but always end up paying more PC.

I'm having bets that I wouldn't dream of if I wasn't paying PC.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:17 PM BST
If you want to risk £50 just place a £100 bet.

I thought they were supposed to be promoting responsible gambling?
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:26 PM BST
It's a nice theory that you could tailor your risk level to find an equilibrium where you're paying exactly 40% in commission, but in reality the swings are absolutely crazy.
Report JML June 21, 2018 12:37 PM BST
Nothing more than explaining why PC payers are better off placing their "non buisness"
bets on betfair.
Report JML June 21, 2018 12:38 PM BST
It should be something Betfair should have done a decade ago
but instead they dream up this stupid fixed rate charge
which will send people to other sites for any extra bets.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:42 PM BST
I think it was a decade ago when they implemented the first version of PC. It's been a decade of stagnation since then.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 12:43 PM BST
Or more of a downward spiral since they introduced the higher rates.
Report salmon spray June 21, 2018 12:51 PM BST
Once you get into PC territory can you get out of it again if your commission paid goes back over 20% of your profit ?
Report JML June 21, 2018 1:02 PM BST
Yes over 20% or 40% commission generated.
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 1:04 PM BST
Yes, but it can encourage one to be a bit more reckless to get over the 20% (or 40%+ if applicable). The best way to do it is through arbitrage, if that route is available to you, as you're far more likely to win with the books and lose on bf than vice versa.
Report salmon spray June 21, 2018 1:14 PM BST
Only play on here tbh except on course when I habitually lose.
I am under 40% but nothing like a big enough player to pay the higher rate. Comfortably over 20% but have hopes   Excited
Can trade obviously but don't much. No accounts with bookies so can't arb.
Report pablo-fanque June 21, 2018 1:44 PM BST
from chats i have had with them . they say they would like to get rid of PC as i think they know it does them no favours ( so they say ) , but they are sticking to the line that for every £1 a PC payer earns it costs them 20p . my argument was that in that case PC should be set to no more than 25% , i didn't get too much back on that point  .

picture speeds - this isn't going to change anytime soon . RUK are happy with how it is and in-running is not a priority for them or the majority of their customers . SIS are bookmaker owned and they will do all they can to not help betfair .

sometimes a customer that costs you profit will be more valuable in the long term because they will bring more customers with them . like how  a 20 stone man goes to an all you eat restaurant with his family , he will probably be a break even or loss maker for the restaurant, but they will make it up and more on the rest of the family . same as on here , a PC maker may be unprofitable, but if they go away and liquidity drops, others stop playing or go elsewhere , and the rot continues .

betfair need to take a short term hit in order to get the ball rolling again imo

just make a flat rate for every PC payer 8%-10% Confused
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 1:46 PM BST
Grin love the all you can eat analogy.
Report pablo-fanque June 21, 2018 1:47 PM BST
mouse, i was thinking of you when i came up with it

Happy
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 1:48 PM BST
I thought it was mart's holiday again.
Report cardenden June 21, 2018 2:01 PM BST
march the 30th , was wullie,s worst day for years
Report JML June 21, 2018 2:02 PM BST
if the flat rate was 10% nearly all 40% ers would become unprofitable.

Give me 0% commission and 75% PC any day
Report cardenden June 21, 2018 2:06 PM BST

Jun 21, 2018 -- 2:02PM, JML wrote:


if the flat rate was 10% nearly all 40% ers would become unprofitable.Give me 0% commission and 75% PC any day


why pay p/c,  just move to another exchange.  they wont be long stopping taking it,, disgrace

Report pablo-fanque June 21, 2018 2:07 PM BST
Grin mouse

JML , maybe i'm just looking at it from my point of view . i'd say you are pretty savvy and are churning or generating enough comms for your above statement to make sense .

are you ?
Report TheFear June 21, 2018 2:10 PM BST
imo the argument for faster pictures is more betting leads to more betting leads to more betting. Even the bookies should want that.
Report JML June 21, 2018 2:11 PM BST
Exactly the opposite.
Report JML June 21, 2018 2:11 PM BST
that was for Pablo
Report pablo-fanque June 21, 2018 2:14 PM BST
ahh i gotcha jml . i wasn't thinking straight
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 2:51 PM BST
i get on well with my acc manager..ive told him dozens of times its mind boggling they are stopping people punting pre race becos of pc..
fiar enough charge what you have an edge on but theres no advantage palying pre race.
Report JML June 21, 2018 3:20 PM BST
I don't know why I bother.
Report JML June 21, 2018 3:22 PM BST
Aren't PC payers suppose to have the sharpest minds
Report Gin June 21, 2018 3:39 PM BST
TheFear 21 Jun 18 10:46 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 9,481 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
it's not just about recreational punters though is it, there is a group (imo) in between professional and recreational. Ive tried purple obviously but never felt they were serious about closing the gap. MB going 0% til xmas is much more like it. And word of mouth is important,,,



Purple have their own form of PC for people who win too quickly - in the form of high fixed commission rates. My current commission rate with them is fixed at 10%.
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 4:11 PM BST
the games finnish
Report mouse muldoon June 21, 2018 4:12 PM BST
Andrew sez Swedish
Report Willie Shafter. June 21, 2018 4:21 PM BST
next door
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